Hi
May I check how do u obtain NAV of $1.30?
many tks.
(17-03-2015, 10:02 AM)westin1 Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks jjlim84 .... if ces is so good, price wont stay stagnant like this.... look at ho bee to see how low it can go....
(10-05-2015, 09:56 PM)roxhockey Wrote: [ -> ]RNAVs are not directly comparable between companies as there's varying levels to risk of achievement. A project with RNAV of 30c that is in the planning phase should have a much greater discount than one that is six months away from TOP.
In Chip Eng Seng`s case, the actual NAV today is probably around $1.30 (reported NAV adjusted for dividend and adjusted for hotel revaluation). The hotel revaluation will not happen for accounting purposes until end of year, but its silly to call it RNAV and apply a 50% discount as I can book a room there now - for economic purposes its realised NAV.
Now, a counter can always trade at a discount to NAV and to make money you're relying on either a) others buying to boost stock price or b) nav value to be proven economically correct through dividends, asset sales or takeovers.
In CES`s case the buyback will do a). If actual NAV is truly 1.30 and the share price is 85c, the company has an amazing opportunity to buy large amounts and realise a 50% return immediately. That's much better than anything you can get in the property market and I expect them to do a lot of it.
A few persons have estimated the year end NAV to be about 1.60.
I think so too.
It has also been mentioned that the floor is likely around 0.80.
I fervently hope that this floor materialises
If this happens, I will buy as much as I have bullets for.
At P/B of 0.5 and yield of 5%, it would be a sweet deal.
(25-02-2015, 05:51 PM)CCUV Wrote: [ -> ]2 cents worth,we have some listed property companies trading at 40 percent discount to nav,I hope no one got carry away,what chip made is legacy profit,going forward there are not much things to look forward,in my personal view it is fairly priced
So far more than 2 months had gone, i am right in the money with my 2c,price of ces maybe fairly priced. Hotel valuation can go up and down. The tourism sector had slow down drastically, gone are the days hotel buyer is going to pay top dollars for it, the yield of local hotels are dropping due to slowdown and big increase in supply plus the rise of interest rate in 2h, hotel assets maybe less attractive, the rise in potential nav may not material. The location of the hotel is not in a tourist area, I will like to pay for a 4 stars-5 stars stay if it is near an attraction, Paying a four/five stars room rate to stay near Ikea? much debatable. The profit profile in the next few years look weak too.
I hope ces had an agreement in place of the type of trades which can be operated in the alex mall. With that kind of price the investors paid for the strata units,it is fair to say,those investors will be looking for profit maximization. Nowadays only f&B or massage parlor/ktv can pay that kind of rent. If the later come in, it will destroy the image of the mall and ultimately affect the hotel image unless anybody believe ktv and hotel rooms are a great match. 2c worth.
*Not vested,dont intend too.
I believe latest singstats has indicated tourist arrivals has decreased a 3% y-o-y, if that is what you mean by drastic for 3%. Meanwhile the occupancy rates for hotels are 85.5%
(12-05-2015, 05:20 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: [ -> ]I believe latest singstats has indicated tourist arrivals has decreased a 3% y-o-y, if that is what you mean by drastic for 3%. Meanwhile the occupancy rates for hotels are 85.5%
It is one of the factor,not the only factor. Last year Chinese tourist is down 29%. At peak some hotel is at 95%
I know there are many loyal supporters for CES. However, after reading CCUV's point of view and my own personal experience, I am inclined to accept CCUV's view as the rational view. I was delusional about a stock that would eventually trade to its NAV and I thought, that was a gem. In the end, it was a horrible wait. I immediately exited into my position and plowed it back into a company that is generating consistent profits. I made considerable gains subsequently.
Again, I am not here to "shoot" any stocks down.
Given the "pessimistic" outlook by many, maybe 80 cents is coming soon ...
Disappointing RevPAR/RevPAU figures
Faced with intensifying competitive pressures, weaker corporate demand and a dip in visitors from South-east Asia (SEA), especially Indonesians, FEHT suffered a YoY fall in its RevPAR (-11% to S$141) for its Hotels portfolio and a 7.1% decline in RevPAU to S$206 for its Serviced Residences (SR). This came on the back of lower average daily rates (ADR) for its Hotels segment (-9.9% to S$171) and SR (-5.5% to S$240) despite relatively stable occupancy rates (-1 ppt for Hotel and -1.5 ppt for SR). We conclude that hospitality players have aggressively lowered prices and offered more promotions in order to boost their market share. A silver lining for FEHT is the fact that one of its hotels, Village Hotel Bugis, has been chosen as one of the 20 hotels used to accommodate athletes and officials participating in the upcoming SEA Games in Jun this year. According to management, the participants would occupy half of the hotel for ~10 to 14 days. In addition, we note that Village Hotel Albert Court has been selected to house the family members and friends of the athletes.
Ces supporters can take a leaf from Far East Hospi trust performance. Far East is the biggest owner of hotel in Singapore. If the big guys felt it......
if it's the tourist factor, although tourist arrivals decreased yoy, tourist expenditures actually held firm, who cares China tourists numbers dec by 25%? I think more attractions are to come in Singapore, Changi airport is even building a new terminal, very worrying indeed...