Tks for the many skeptics, forummers and analysts who have continued to remain skeptical and it has allowed CES to remain undervalued.
Really THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Skeptics are friend to value investors. It will force you to review, reaffirm, and then re-enforce your conviction on a stock if remains valuable.
We should be nice to friends, rather than be sarcastic, if any.
(IIRC, I am not one of those provided the skeptics, I suppose
)
Divested half my stake this morning, partially to lock in profits after the good announcement, and also partially to re-balance my portfolio (don't really want to put in extra cash into the market now). Moved the proceeds to increase my stake in Low Keng Huat, which will be announcing (hopefully) great results in a month's time. Similar story - huge revenue recognition, potential to raise dividends, increasing recurring income base.
(25-02-2015, 10:23 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Skeptics are friend to value investors. It will force you to review, reaffirm, and then re-enforce your conviction on a stock if remains valuable.
We should be nice to friends, rather than be sarcastic, if any.
(IIRC, I am not one of those provided the skeptics, I suppose )
I like your statement. I entered early when prices were 80 cents plus but upped my stakes when prices were retreated from 97 to 93. And i liquidated other non performing counters to enter at the "new" lower price. Its all as you described "reinforce conviction".
The only limited resource we have is not money, but time. It is the scarcity of time which makes this conviction all the more necessary and "bo fu chen zhou" when opportunity arises.
Thought the 37.9m fair value gain was quite material (ard 6 cents per share). From accompanying notes to ytd’s announcement, sounds like the fair value gain was associated with investment properties CES centre and 420 St Kilda. Is this the cost of alteration works for both properties that CES has capitalized in Q4? If that’s the case, refurbishment for San Centre is indeed quite substantial – assuming ~30m alteration cost, cost psf would go up by 220 thereabouts making total cost 1077 psf (220 + 857). From posted ads, looks like they are looking to rent the space at 6.5 psf so rental yield of 6.7% if they achieve 6 psf average. Not too bad and I don't know if the same can be achieved if they went with a hotel development instead for the site.
Also, seems like revenue/profit for Junction Nine and Nine Residences are recognized based on % completion. Anyone knows the rough schedule of revenue recognition for this method? Just want to have a feel of what has already been booked in the 2014 results and what will be booked in 2015/16 though it seems like TOP by end of the year is possible (looks like the structure is already at 14th storey now).
My 2 cents on the limited movement today. I believe the bumper profit from Alexandra has been partly priced in but I am guessing there's quite a bit of disappointment with the special dividend being only 2c more despite the record 44c profit. Although I do feel that CES being prudent is a positive for longer term investors. With recent GLS bids already starting to show weakness, there should be opportunities later on to pick up land parcels at lower prices.
2 cents worth,we have some listed property companies trading at 40 percent discount to nav,I hope no one got carry away,what chip made is legacy profit,going forward there are not much things to look forward,in my personal view it is fairly priced
yes, those traded at great discount to NAV are usually dishing out meagre dividend, e.g. Tuan Sing, Amara, etc
dividend yield ~ 1% or lower
(25-02-2015, 05:51 PM)CCUV Wrote: [ -> ]2 cents worth,we have some listed property companies trading at 40 percent discount to nav,I hope no one got carry away,what chip made is legacy profit,going forward there are not much things to look forward,in my personal view it is fairly priced
(25-02-2015, 04:54 PM)mechu Wrote: [ -> ]Thought the 37.9m fair value gain was quite material (ard 6 cents per share). From accompanying notes to ytd’s announcement, sounds like the fair value gain was associated with investment properties CES centre and 420 St Kilda. Is this the cost of alteration works for both properties that CES has capitalized in Q4? If that’s the case, refurbishment for San Centre is indeed quite substantial – assuming ~30m alteration cost, cost psf would go up by 220 thereabouts making total cost 1077 psf (220 + 857). From posted ads, looks like they are looking to rent the space at 6.5 psf so rental yield of 6.7% if they achieve 6 psf average. Not too bad and I don't know if the same can be achieved if they went with a hotel development instead for the site.
Also, seems like revenue/profit for Junction Nine and Nine Residences are recognized based on % completion. Anyone knows the rough schedule of revenue recognition for this method? Just want to have a feel of what has already been booked in the 2014 results and what will be booked in 2015/16 though it seems like TOP by end of the year is possible (looks like the structure is already at 14th storey now).
My 2 cents on the limited movement today. I believe the bumper profit from Alexandra has been partly priced in but I am guessing there's quite a bit of disappointment with the special dividend being only 2c more despite the record 44c profit. Although I do feel that CES being prudent is a positive for longer term investors. With recent GLS bids already starting to show weakness, there should be opportunities later on to pick up land parcels at lower prices.
Ok think I wrongly used GFA for the San Centre yield calculation. It seems like NLA is closer to 100,000 sq so the cost psf of the lettable space is more like 1130 psf making the cost psf including alteration to be 1350 psf assuming 30m invested in alteration (only estimate and could very well be lower). Yield is actually 5.3% based on this calculation.
Current share price = 98 cents.
NAV = $1.17
Discount to NAV = 16%.
- With the impending TOP of Alex Park hotel, NAV would be revised up by ~30 cents to $1.47 in 3 months times.
- Tender for Victoria land will close by end of March. Assume EPS gain ~ 6 cents.
- Not forgetting that recurring income of $14mil (per annum) will kick in.
- Applying discount factor of 20% to NAV of $1.53 cents, we should get ~$1.22
Is this reasonable ?