(25-08-2014, 10:41 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]If the increase in EPS turns out to be more than 30 cents, no harm dishing out a bit of money to "align" interest between staff and shareholders for the longer term good of company 
Well, shareholders can urge company to cancel all treasury shares too if they really feel that is in their best interests....
(IMHO)
(25-08-2014, 10:26 PM)value seeker Wrote: [ -> ]Looking past 5 years there was no record. But there could always be first time. Reward for good performance.
Let's see in this coming AGM if anything is proposed. If not, it pays to ask management if there is any intended use for the treasury shares or plans to cancel.
Another 0.68 mil shares bought back at ave of 90 cents today...
What are the possible upside scenarios?
a. Will EPS for FY14 hit 40 cents or 4 times of FY13?
b. Has CES secured a buyer for its hotel who is willing to pay $0.9m to $1mil per room key?
c. project approval secured for Carlton?
d. TM demolition works have finally started again?
e. company thinks that it can make a lot of profit from the Fernvale project?
If we refer back to previous run-up, company last bought back shares at 60 cents (31 Dec 2012) before the share price ran up to close to 90 cents (Feb 2013) [2 months later]
That was a 50% jump!!!
If 90 cents is the last level company is now buying (as of 26 Aug 2014), can the share price reach $1.35 (or 50% gain from current level)?
I think $1.35 is a distinct possibility as the RNAV is way beyond $1.35
My preliminary estimate of RNAV (all known local and overseas projects) is $2.25.
(26-08-2014, 09:26 PM)Ray168 Wrote: [ -> ]Company buy back.
For easy reference ...
![[Image: CES%2520-%252020140826%2520COY%2520BuyBack.png]](https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-0ediLGXhoE4/U_yKR4VoexI/AAAAAAAABvs/fZ8X_qSa7qE/s640/CES%2520-%252020140826%2520COY%2520BuyBack.png)
(26-08-2014, 07:28 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Another 0.68 mil shares bought back at ave of 90 cents today...
What are the possible upside scenarios?
a. Will EPS for FY14 hit 40 cents or 4 times of FY13?
b. Has CES secured a buyer for its hotel who is willing to pay $0.9m to $1mil per room key?
c. project approval secured for Carlton?
d. TM demolition works have finally started again?
e. company thinks that it can make a lot of profit from the Fernvale project?
I would not read too much into the share buy backs as they have been happening for quite a while now and since purchases this year happened on peaks, it looks like this is just a standard buy-back program which is not directly targeting a specific value or target. They could be not buying back anything next month. Besides major benefit would go to the Lims.
I personally prefer div payments if there is excess cash. those millions could have been used to reduce debt and interest expense thereby boosting income as well.
Always keep gearing in mind and don't count your chickens until they hatch or rather don't count your buildings until they are constructed.
Alex Central Hotel is slated to TOP in 2015. In the event of any delay, probably the appointed contractor will have to pay liquidated damages to CES
Upon TOP, Park Royal Hotel Group will take over the running and $16mil/yr of recurring income will roll in.
The biggest worry for investors should be for counters trading way beyond their book NAV (e.g. Wee hur, Oxley, etc) and not supported by real RNAV (i.e. projects where units are not fully sold or poor sales).
tks.
The biggest worry for investors should be for counters trading way beyond their book NAV (e.g. Wee hur, Oxley, etc) and not supported by real RNAV (i.e. projects where units are not fully sold or poor sales).
tks.
[/quote]
Yes. Just to see how the figures compares:
Aspial NAV is now 17.67 cent. Share price 44.5 cent. To trade at half of RNAV, which is what cheap prop shares like Chip Eng Seng trade at now, Aspial NAV has to go up to 90 cnet or 72 cent from all its future projects. Multiply 72 cent by 1.817 billion shares = $1.3 billion!!!
Aspial has to make $1.3 billion net future profits from all its projects in order to catch up with Chip Eng Seng!!
I think that will take 10 years maybe, assume $130 million a year. This half year it only make $40 million.
Tks so much for showing the figure. That really helps a lot.
Figures are always better than "blank/empty talks"...
If share buyback programs mostly benefit the key substantial shareholders, why don't other companies do it as well (e.g. S-chips)?
(27-08-2014, 07:34 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]Yes. Just to see how the figures compares:
Aspial NAV is now 17.67 cent. Share price 44.5 cent. To trade at half of RNAV, which is what cheap prop shares like Chip Eng Seng trade at now, Aspial NAV has to go up to 90 cnet or 72 cent from all its future projects. Multiply 72 cent by 1.817 billion shares = $1.3 billion!!!
Aspial has to make $1.3 billion net future profits from all its projects in order to catch up with Chip Eng Seng!!
I think that will take 10 years maybe, assume $130 million a year. This half year it only make $40 million.
(26-08-2014, 09:38 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]...
My prelim estimate of all projects (local and overseas) is $2.25.
...
CES raked in a combined net profit of some SGD300m during 2010-11,
boosting shareholders’ equity by 2.5 times over that two years, from NAV 25.04c in 2009 to 63.04c in 2011, if we add back dividends dished out in those 2 years, i.e. 7c, it was even more impressive, ~ 2.8 times (from 25.04c in 2009 to 70.04c in 2011)
If the history will just repeat itself in the coming 2 FY, NAV will be boosted from 77.12c in 2013 to 215.93 in 2015 (with dividend inclusive).
I think the history has convinced me the management is capable to achieve this. Let's see.
Could you share how did u arrive at the RNAV of $2.16 by end of 2015?
Company bought back 4.18 mil of shares at an average price of $0.87 (in last 2 weeks)
this is enough testimony from management that CES is still very undervalued...
(27-08-2014, 08:46 AM)valuehunter88 Wrote: [ -> ] (26-08-2014, 09:38 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]...
My prelim estimate of all projects (local and overseas) is $2.25.
...
CES raked in a combined net profit of some SGD300m during 2010-11,
boosting shareholders’ equity by 2.5 times over that two years, from NAV 25.04c in 2009 to 63.04c in 2011, if we add back dividends dished out in those 2 years, i.e. 7c, it was even more impressive, ~ 2.8 times (from 25.04c in 2009 to 70.04c in 2011)
If the history will just repeat itself in the coming 2 FY, NAV will be boosted from 77.12c in 2013 to 215.93 in 2015 (with dividend inclusive).
I think the history has convinced me the management is capable to achieve this. Let's see.