CEL activities in Australka.
1. TM. project launch during sep2012, at that time sold out around 57%, at june2013 sold 78%, sep2013 reach 95%, currently sold 99%, almost sold out. for this project, if this cannot be finish, that is no doubt a loss to company. and, with 99% sold, the risk has been transferred. no doubt, increase in interest rate would have cause some investor default on this project, but how many of them? imaging they bought at AUD820, around 2012-2013, with that price and the current market price, they could have pocket profit 25% above. i would think the investor will be dissappointd if this can not finish.
2. CUB. Company is planning to sold this project.
3. Perth project, this land bought at 2010, no details about the project yet.
4. Williomsons Estate. This project is at a good location. Wait for the project to launch, there will have more details.
the biggest project are the first two, i am fine with the current situation for CEL. Just need to see more progress on TM. in the end, the TM project is limited to the upfront cost of project and the depositi+interest rate the company received from buyers. Profit? my estimation is around 156million for TM. Investment has risk. just invest in those thing y,ou feel comfortable...
Btw, i did see some property developer sold their units after 20-30% price cut now in Singapore, but they are still earning - earn lesser. Project in SG?
based on latest report, 100PP sold 88%, NINE RESIDENCE sold 84%, junction 9 sold out, Fulcrum 13%.
how would Fulcrum cut price 30%? Fulcrum last teansaction price around SGD2080 psft, 30% cut, let say selling at SGD1400 psft at FORT ROAD!!! The company will still earn.
RT Knight Wrote:CEL activities in Australka. 1. TM. project launch during sep2012, at that time sold out around 57%, at june2013 sold 78%, sep2013 reach 95%, currently sold 99%, almost sold out. for this project, if this cannot be finish, that is no doubt a loss to company. and, with 99% sold, the risk has been transferred. no doubt, increase in interest rate would have cause some investor default on this project, but how many of them? imaging they bought at AUD820, around 2012-2013, with that price and the current market price, they could have pocket profit 25% above. i would think the investor will be dissappointd if this can not finish. 2. CUB. Company is planning to sold this project. 3. Perth project, this land bought at 2010, no details about the project yet. 4. Williomsons Estate. This project is at a good location. Wait for the project to launch, there will have more details. the biggest project are the first two, i am fine with the current situation for CEL. Just need to see more progress on TM. in the end, the TM project is limited to the upfront cost of project and the depositi+interest rate the company received from buyers. Profit? my estimation is around 156million for TM. Investment has risk. just invest in those thing y,ou feel comfortable... Btw, i did see some property developer sold their units after 20-30% price cut now in Singapore, but they are still earning - earn lesser. Project in SG? based on latest report, 100PP sold 88%, NINE RESIDENCE sold 84%, junction 9 sold out, Fulcrum 13%. how would Fulcrum cut price 30%? Fulcrum last teansaction price around SGD2080 psft, 30% cut, let say selling at SGD1400 psft at FORT ROAD!!! The company will still earn.
Fulcrum is at a very strategic location . Don't think CES has to give much discount to drive sales ... Just watch and see ... They are launching soon at 2H ....
RT Knight Wrote:26 cents, my earlier calculation.... selling price record show at AUD821, but, i discount to use only AUD600. exchange rate is 1.1 this is at my record as the solely project finish at 2018
Grateful if u could provide the link to the PSF data on TM, ie the A$821 figure .
Thank you very much
Certainly, interest rate is a serious concern.
With CES offering 6 cts dividend and still having Share-buy-back, we can only argue its funds could have been better used,
if only CES's borrowing cost shoots up beyond 6%.
However, what is the probability of this happening?
6 cts dividend from 44 cts EPS works out to be only 13.64%. This is indeed conservative but it's alright.
CES authorized to buy back some 64 mil shares and has only accumulated 40.7 mil shares to-date, meaning they have only done less than 64% of the job. Wake up ! They are running way behind schedule, being slow they will eventually have to pay more.
Koh Bros are definitely doing a better jod for SBB.
Unfortunately, CES has a better reason and urgency to have SBB , considering their yield, market float, PE and EPS.
In term of both Market Cap and Float, CES is one of the biggest. This has made CES a favorite target among Fund Managers.
Factoring in all these, interest hike is indeed a calculated risk we have to inevitably take for a potentially huge gain.
(07-03-2015, 05:11 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]RT Knight Wrote:26 cents, my earlier calculation.... selling price record show at AUD821, but, i discount to use only AUD600. exchange rate is 1.1 this is at my record as the solely project finish at 2018
Grateful if u could provide the link to the PSF data on TM, ie the A$821 figure .
Thank you very much
check back CEL announcement, released on 28March2013.
The lowest price is 8841 psm, for internal sale, which sold to Raymond and his wife
even with that, the current location nearby the selling price is around 1000-1200psft
for those who interest on share buy back, below is some info, since CEL buy back from 3Dec2012.
share: 40,706,200
cost: $25,167,339.90
average: $0.618 PER share
original share at 667,515,161
share after deduct treasury share till date 626,808,961
share buy back 6.148% since 3Dec2012
4 units were sold at average of A$900 PSF to interested persons.
Assume A$750 PSF (very conservative)
total revenue = $450mil (also supported by the amt of deposit collected ~ A$50mil)
Construction cost = $170mil (based on news article and supported by website on cost of construction in Melbourne)
Land cost = $25.5 mil
Other cost = 15% x 170 = $25 mil (e.g. legal cost, cost of delay, etc)
Net profit after tax = $190mil (aussie dollar) or $200mil SGD or
~ 31.7 cents EPS!!!
No wonder share buyback at 97.5 cents!!!!
(07-03-2015, 07:44 PM)RT Knight Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2015, 05:11 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]RT Knight Wrote:26 cents, my earlier calculation.... selling price record show at AUD821, but, i discount to use only AUD600. exchange rate is 1.1 this is at my record as the solely project finish at 2018
Grateful if u could provide the link to the PSF data on TM, ie the A$821 figure .
Thank you very much
check back CEL announcement, released on 28March2013.
The lowest price is 8841 psm, for internal sale, which sold to Raymond and his wife
even with that, the current location nearby the selling price is around 1000-1200psft
Congratulations again to all vested.
NAV ( Dec 2014) - $1.17
- Victoria project divestment (5 cents)
- Construction income for 2 yrs ( 7 cents)
- recurring income for 2 yrs ( 8 cents)
- Doncaster (5 cents)
- Perth (0 cents)
- Hotel revaluation Gain (30 cents)
- Remaining of Junction 9 and 9 Residence ( 8 cents)
- Fernvale (~10 cents)
- Fulcrum (~5 cents)
- TM project (~25 cents)
RNAV ~ $2.20. (recurring EPS ~ 9 cents)
Share price is 56% discount to RNAV.
Thanks for sharing .
Done my own layman analysis as well.
Totally agreed that CES is probably the best bet, Fundamentally.
Put it in another way, CES is a low-risk-high-return-bet.
We shall allow time for nature to take its course.
Market will eventually have to recognize its true value.
For those who sold their CES shares in the last 2 weeks after the FY result announcement,
I really wonder and ponder if they understand accounting.
Perhaps, there were other more urgent needs for funds.
Btw, I do not agree with all my eggs in one basket, no matter how sound,
can anyone suggest another equally good counter for a bit of new funds?
Cheers!