(03-04-2015, 04:38 PM)vesfreq Wrote: [ -> ]PS: Lets talk less price and more fundamentals. Its been days that the price thing has been dangling in this thread.
I concur. Price discussion is inevitable for stock discussion, but let's reduced its weight in this thread, and put more weight on the fundamentals.
Thank you
Regards
Moderator
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” — Philip Fisher
(03-04-2015, 04:38 PM)vesfreq Wrote: [ -> ] (03-04-2015, 03:57 PM)$wise Wrote: [ -> ]Perhaps, there was a misunderstanding. Nobody was talking down CES.
May I help those who had expressed concerns on CES prices be stagnant to clarify that it should not be misinterpreted as talking down prices.
I would interpret it as insecurity or lack of confidence.
This is perfectly normal and inevitable, due to a lack of adequate due diligence.
This insecurity and impatience can be addressed by just going deeper into CES latest financial report.
If time allows, it can further be enhanced by going into LKH, Wee Hur, Tuan Sing, Koh Bros and Lee metal.
In terms of price, they were all equally stable , in other words , stagnant.
In terms of book, fundamentally, CES is comprehensive and the most convincing.
However, nobody can assure anyone when and where the price is moving.
I am taking some calculated risk together with you guys towards a decent return.
I bet, CES (being so highly undervalued) can only go North eventually.
Last few weeks ( prior LKH announcement) I used to think LKH would be a close fight for the champ in my small basket and would serve me well for diversification.
Unfortunately, LKH didn’t make it that close to CES, though both were having record breaking results (which are highly unlikely to repeat itself in the coming year or two).
There was nothing wrong with LKH but CES’ result was just unbeatable.
Having said all that, I am a humble investor who is always receptive and anxious to read about opposing opinions and facts of CES.
Hope buddies will offer another good comparable or substitute, for some diversification of funds, as any overconfidence in a single counter is risky and unhealthy.
All stocks go through their lulls. Its important that we agree with the business model before taking the plunge/ dive/ dip.
In the long run, the value of a stock is a function of the business. Those who had been vested in Serial Systems probably seen one of the worst plunge in the counter price, but today, the stock appreciated 100% over a span of 2-3 years. If one were not believe in the business, they would have taken flight when the prices fell to the pit. (moi not vested in it, unfortunately).
We could do better discussing the business and outlook, rather than merely looking at price. If one wishes to see price, there is the broker's online platform.
Personally, CES still forms the biggest pie in my portfolio. I do not lose sleep or appetite over the price. If I wanted to bet and gamble, I would take my spare change and not my investment pot. 
PS: Lets talk less price and more fundamentals. Its been days that the price thing has been dangling in this thread.
" Personally, CES still forms the biggest pie in my portfolio. I do not lose sleep or appetite over the price...." ... I think by having a single counter form the biggest is more risky. No matter how good a counter is, we can never know. I think equal weightage is always logical. I hope u don't mind. Been over confident is dangerous. I do not means that CES is no good either. I am vested personally.
My Wing Tai has finally move up big, now CES turn to do it. Come on, CES.
The following is a short report from RHB Reseach on today. By the way, Chip Eng Seng has changed their usual AGM location from Orchid Country club to Grand Copthrone waterfront on 10 am 23 April 2015.
Chip Eng Seng’s record profit for FY14 was boosted
by a number of project completions, including
industrial project 100 Pasir Panjang, My Manhattan
Belysa (EC project), Belvia (DBSS project) and
Alexandra Central retail mall. FY15’s results will be
underpinned by the completion of the group’s
mixed
development project Junction Nine/Nine
Residences, its Alexandra Road hotel and Fulcrum,
a mid-market residential project. Chip Eng Seng
boosted its dividend payout by 50% in its latest
financial year, from SGD0.04/share to
SGD0.06/share, continuing with its generous
dividend track record. We remain
optimistic of the
group’s prospects, and value the developer at
SGD1.07/share based on a 35% discount to its
RNAV.
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/Rese...atters.pdf
AGM
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...pril15.pdf
Based on 35% discount to RNAV, the original RNAV from RHB securities was only a meagre $1.65.
Current NAV = $1.17
Hotel revaluation = $0.30
TM project =$0.30
divestment of Victoria land = $0.05
remaining of nine resid and junction 9 = $0.08
Doncaster, Perth, Fernvale = $0.15 (assuming poor take up)
Fulcrum = $0.05 (assuming poor take up)
RNAV = $2.10 (conservative and does not include recurring income)
Recurring income
1. investment properties - $0.045 (steady state) per annum
2. construction income = $0.04 per annum
(06-04-2015, 10:05 PM)ngcheeki Wrote: [ -> ]The following is a short report from RHB Reseach on today. By the way, Chip Eng Seng has changed their usual AGM location from Orchid Country club to Grand Copthrone waterfront on 10 am 23 April 2015.
Chip Eng Seng’s record profit for FY14 was boosted
by a number of project completions, including
industrial project 100 Pasir Panjang, My Manhattan
Belysa (EC project), Belvia (DBSS project) and
Alexandra Central retail mall. FY15’s results will be
underpinned by the completion of the group’s mixed
development project Junction Nine/Nine
Residences, its Alexandra Road hotel and Fulcrum,
a mid-market residential project. Chip Eng Seng
boosted its dividend payout by 50% in its latest
financial year, from SGD0.04/share to
SGD0.06/share, continuing with its generous
dividend track record. We remain optimistic of the
group’s prospects, and value the developer at
SGD1.07/share based on a 35% discount to its
RNAV.
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/Rese...atters.pdf
AGM
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...pril15.pdf
Property counters poised for an upward adjustment soon?
****
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-...ar-say-rep
Analysts expect the government to review the property cooling measures this year, media reports said.
This is because the government’s four key metrics – speculation, home prices, foreign buying and interest rates have begun to move in desired directions, shared Maybank Kim Eng analyst Derrick Heng.
At the same time, HSBC economist Joseph Incalcaterra noted that the government’s macroprudential measures such as the TDSR have been effective in curbing household debt accumulation.
“The MAS is likely to maintain its macroprudential policy to assist in the deleveraging of households; however, it is possible that they tweak some measures in 2H 2015,” he added.
In a Q4 2014 consumer sentiment survey published by PropertyGuru which polled 940 Singaporeans and permanent residents, two in three people wanted the government to maintain the cooling measures, but hoped to see some curbs relaxed.
The top three measures they’d like loosened are:
- Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) on a second or subsequent property;
- Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework;
- Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) on HDB loans.
The Business Times Singapore
March 11, 2015 Wednesday
Khaw seeks 'soft landing' for housing market;
MPs ask for ABSD adjustment for S'poreans to curb risky foreign property buys and excessive price corrections
NATIONAL Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan is aiming for a "soft landing" for the housing market as "a market crash benefits no one", he said at Tuesday's Committee of Supply debate.
This was in reply to questions in parliament on the impact of government policies on the property market. The government was asked whether it would consider adjusting the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for Singaporean buyers when it is ready to unwind the cooling measures.
West Coast GRC Member of Parliament Foo Mee Har also asked at which point property cooling measures would be eased, in order to cushion any excessive price corrections.
While Mr Khaw did not directly answer the questions on the ABSD and the timing of policy changes, he agreed that the government "should not go into overdrive, and unwittingly undermine the retirement plan of our seniors who look to their housing assets for monetisation".
Earlier, Ms Foo had cautioned of the need to ensure that the "well intended" cooling measures are not overdone. "Given the huge new housing supply yet to hit the market and the impending rise of interest rates, we must be cautious that this downward price trend does not inadvertently get into a momentum and reach an unintended pace.
"Some industry players have told me that this is easier said than done. Their concern is that once a downward momentum begins, the downward pressure on prices may not be so easy to control, as we have seen in previous property cycles."
Lee Bee Wah (Nee Soon GRC) said that while the ABSD started out as an initiative to discourage unnecessary ownership of multiple properties, it has led to Singaporeans "who have spare cash" investing in riskier foreign properties.
"Coupled with low initial downpayments, and fewer restrictions in foreign property, Singaporeans are enticed to look abroad. This not only does little benefit to our economy, but puts our people at risk.
"I feel we should keep the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) to encourage prudence in finance spending, but remove the ABSD for Singaporeans so they can invest in properties in Singapore."
MPs also noted that the cooled property market has made it difficult for retirees looking to sell their flats to right-size in order to fund their retirement. Those attempting to sell off their existing flat or private property within the six-month grace period before buying a resale flat are also struggling.
Since January 2013, Singapore citizens who already own a home have to pay an ABSD of 7 per cent on the purchase of a second residential property; this percentage climbs to 10 per cent on the third and subsequent property. This is seen as a measure to slow property investment and speculation.
Under the TDSR framework, borrowers' total monthly debt repayments (including car loans and credit cards) cannot exceed 60 per cent of their gross monthly income. This is a permanent measure to encourage financial prudence.
In his speech, Mr Khaw said: "Indeed, we should not overkill. The property market is in transition and it is a time that calls for vigilance and nimbleness. We will be careful."
He went on to share data to show how his ministry's efforts in taming the housing market has yielded results. HDB resale prices have risen from their previous trough in 2005. From 2005 to 2014, resale flat prices have gone up 87 per cent, while household income has gone up by 72 per cent.
Although Singapore is not yet at the 2005 affordability level, at least the affordability gap has narrowed from the 2011-2013 property market boom (see chart).
He added too that "sobering news" about the "acute" housing situations in cities such as London and Hong Kong put Singapore's "more benign situation" into better perspective.
During Tuesday's Committee of Supply debate, Mr Khaw also thanked MPs for their ideas on how to adjust the Lease Buyback Scheme. The new Lease Buyback Scheme, which is extended to four-room flats, takes effect in April.
He also said that he would mull proposals to introduce shorter lease tenure in some build-to-order projects to cater to different groups with varying needs. He will also consider raising the S$10,000 HDB income ceiling, after noting that couples are marrying later and income levels are rising.
Australian Financial Review
Singaporean developer doubles its money in Melbourne frenzy
Listed Singaporean developer Chip Eng Seng has sold a residential development site in inner-city Melbourne for $64.8 million, doubling its money in just two years after gaining a planning permit for more than 1000 apartments.
The huge deal, announced on the Singapore stock exchange late on Friday, defies mounting concern from the Reserve Bank of Australia over a speculative bubble emerging in the residential development market, in Melbourne especially.
The RBA sounded its latest warning just two days before the massive Melbourne deal was announced. On the northern edge of the central business district, the prime site at 170 Victoria Street occupies 2927 square metres of the former Carlton & United brewery, which private developer Grocon took control of in 2006.
Chip Eng Seng acquired the corner site from Grocon only two years ago for $32 million. Through its Australian subsidiary, CES Victoria, the Singaporean player gained a planning permit for a 72-storey tower. The Elengberg Fraser design comprises 1035 apartments in a mixed-use project.
The planning permit was confirmed by former state planning minister Mathew Guy in the final weeks before last year's state election, when the Coalition government lost office. Mr Guy, now state opposition leader, brushed aside town hall's objection against the tower's casting of some shadow over the state library forecourt nearby.
Since then Labor's new planning minister, Richard Wynne - who was sidelined with illness for three months - has moved slowly and quietly on approving major projects, ticking off just one in the CBD so far.
Chip Eng Seng is yet to reveal the buyer of the site, handled by Colliers International's Trent Hobart and Bryson Cameron. Appetite for the project drove the price to a likely record for the Carlton area, just above $22,000 per square metre of land.
The deal represents an investment of almost $63,000 for each new apartment, considered a high price on a large project. It follows the RBA last week focusing its real estate worries directly on the residential development sector and warned that the risk of oversupply was most evident in inner-city Melbourne.
Chip Eng Seng's project is one of the largest approved projects to transact in central Melbourne since super fund developer ISPT sold The Age newspaper's former site, in Spencer Street, to Far East Consortium for $76 million in 2013. The appeal of flipping sites with permits is increasing.
Last year prominent local developer Lorenz Grollo also doubled his money on a Collins Street site, selling to private developer Jeff Xu for $25 million.
record shown, one more 100PP transaction done.
Compare to the initial launch price, which is S$ 962 psft, this last transaction is selling S$1200.
24% increment.