27-02-2015, 10:58 PM
For MOS, I look mostly at these few items, which give me "good sleep":
1. Discount to RNAV
- My estimate for Low Keng Huat is $1.57, currently around 52% discount. For KSH Holdings, RNAV estimate of $1.15, meaning discount of 55%.
- CES estimated RNAV of $1.66 gives me 41% discount.
2. Insider Share Repurchases near my entry
- $0.67-0.68 for LKH, and $0.51-0.53 for KSH. Makes me feel comfortable.
- CES gives me the same comfort here.
3. Significant Upcoming Catalysts
- LKH has Paya Lebar Central coming up next month, and KSH has a large number of highly sold projects for profit recognition.
- Similar for CES.
4. Good Management team and solid Track Record
- Comfortable with both LKH and KSH.
- A little worried about the departure of Raymond Chia.
In conclusion, it's the closing RNAV gap that prompted me to rebalance, and also not wanting to cough up extra cash for now. Hope that helps
1. Discount to RNAV
- My estimate for Low Keng Huat is $1.57, currently around 52% discount. For KSH Holdings, RNAV estimate of $1.15, meaning discount of 55%.
- CES estimated RNAV of $1.66 gives me 41% discount.
2. Insider Share Repurchases near my entry
- $0.67-0.68 for LKH, and $0.51-0.53 for KSH. Makes me feel comfortable.
- CES gives me the same comfort here.
3. Significant Upcoming Catalysts
- LKH has Paya Lebar Central coming up next month, and KSH has a large number of highly sold projects for profit recognition.
- Similar for CES.
4. Good Management team and solid Track Record
- Comfortable with both LKH and KSH.
- A little worried about the departure of Raymond Chia.
In conclusion, it's the closing RNAV gap that prompted me to rebalance, and also not wanting to cough up extra cash for now. Hope that helps
(27-02-2015, 05:01 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: [ -> ](27-02-2015, 04:18 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: [ -> ]Have decided to take profit on the other half of my CES stake, holding period around 9 months. Reason is to move capital to KSH for larger MOS. Wish buddies here all the best, will keep CES on my watchlist - definitely a solid co.
With this switch my property stock holdings are now concentrated in LKH & KSH, around 65/35 split.
(Fully divested)
(26-02-2015, 04:03 PM)BfGf Money Blog Wrote: [ -> ]I am invested in CES for sometime now but after this earnings, the pipleline for 2015 onwards doesn't offer much visibility. The resignation of its Director and its debt are definitely a concern.
BUT - the aggressive sharebuyback of its management could indicate that they are extremely confident about the company's prospects?
I might probably sell half of my stake in CES.
As much as I thank CES for their good returns these few years, I probably won't touch property stocks again!
Hi slowandsteady, mind explaining more in detail why LKH/KSH have larger MOS than CES? Is it just because of the debt?
Since they are all construction/property stocks, some comparison would be beneficial to all of us I think