You would need someone experienced with construction delays and costs to estimate the amount. Either that or find examples of developers who had projects delayed and the subsequent cost to their bottomline.
only cost that i can think of calculating directly would be interest cost which should be mentioned in AR or QRs.
CES issue bonds at 4.5% recently.
for illustration only...
if delayed 1 year its 4.5% profit gone, 2 years 9% profit gone.(interest costs)
if arbitarily take 5% for staff and overhead cost of delay, over 2 years another 10% gone. since profit is usually 20%, i would guess 2 years delay would wipe out profit and maybe even in the red after that.
in australia labour super expensive, so delays can be much more costly than in singapore...
given the possible bloodbath again on US market today (futures now are all red), plus given the TM overhanging issue, CES might open below 80 cents tomo...
we might be wondering why the company has stopped doing share buyback when it is now the best time to do so??
*****
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market plunged in early trade on Wednesday as investors unloaded risky assets and piled into havens such as Treasurys and gold.
The main benchmarks fell more than 2% shortly after the open, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield dived 35 basis points, breaching the 2% level.
Disappointing economic reports ahead of the bell added to already jittery sentiment on Wall Street. Reports on manufacturing in the state of New York and U.S. wholesale prices missed expectations, and a reading on retail sales showed a decline for the first time in eight months.
The S&P 500 SPX, -1.72% fell 31 points, or 1.7%, to 1,850 and is down more than 8.5% from its peak reached on September 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.33% dropped 295 points, or 1.9%, to 16,041.76. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.52% plunged 80 points, or 1.9%, to 4,146.11.
Sean Darby, chief global equity strategist at Jefferies, said it’s unlikely the U.S. stock market has entered a bear-market phase, but rather investors are just unwinding “unfettered confidence” in central-bank policy.
“The equity market will bottom out once commodity prices find a floor and the fear of deflation recedes,” he said in a note dated Tuesday. Crude-oil prices CLZ4, -0.43% fell anew on Wednesday, dropping 1% ahead of key supply data. Prices hit a two-year low on Tuesday after a cut in the outlook for oil-demand growth from the International Energy Agency. Energy-related stocks have fallen in the last four sessions.
1) There is no Tower Melbourne overhang issue.
2) CES is just as likely to open above 90c as below 80c. Both are quite remote.
3) Company in black out period ahead of q3 results is the reason I suspect no buyback.
4) CuriousParty, when did you sell your shares?
Since the TOP for TM project has been deferred to a much later date (at least 1 yr later??), about 50% of the projected profits from this project has been wiped out?
Is this correct? tks.
(15-10-2014, 08:56 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]You would need someone experienced with construction delays and costs to estimate the amount. Either that or find examples of developers who had projects delayed and the subsequent cost to their bottomline.
only cost that i can think of calculating directly would be interest cost which should be mentioned in AR or QRs.
CES issue bonds at 4.5% recently.
for illustration only...
if delayed 1 year its 4.5% profit gone, 2 years 9% profit gone.(interest costs)
if arbitarily take 5% for staff and overhead cost of delay, over 2 years another 10% gone. since profit is usually 20%, i would guess 2 years delay would wipe out profit and maybe even in the red after that.
in australia labour super expensive, so delays can be much more costly than in singapore...
Has anyone gone to see the progress of Alex Mall? The exterior still looks very unkempt at this stage .
Looks like its TOP might have to be delayed to maybe Q1/Q2 2015? If this happens to be the case, will CES LD its main contractor? Is there any loss to CES if TOP of Alex mall is deferred ? tks.
Yes, likely little delay in the mall TOP. But its ok because the early TOP is just an indication by the company and probably not the deadline given to the contractor to complete. No loss anywhere, just delay in the lump sum profit to Q1 perhaps.
Q3 results would include Belvia which could be quite big though not as big as Alex Mall.
Will the delay in TOP of ALEX mall (IF ANY) reduce the projected profit for the project, even though CES has outsourced the construction ?
Will CES LD the construction company for the delay?
Will consumers LD CES for causing delay to the TOP date?
Any delay (if any) will add on financing cost.....NO GOOD...
tks.
(23-10-2014, 09:05 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, likely little delay in the mall TOP. But its ok because the early TOP is just an indication by the company and probably not the deadline given to the contractor to complete. No loss anywhere, just delay in the lump sum profit to Q1 perhaps.
Q3 results would include Belvia which could be quite big though not as big as Alex Mall.
TOP delayed to 1st quarter 2015, is this officially announced?
Company announced on 30th Sep that Alex Central mall expected to TOP in Q4.
Some posters on this thread appear to be trying to spread misinformation to reduce the stock price so they buy stock cheaper. As a current holder I appreciate their efforts as it helps create value for me, but that's an ethical line I won't personally cross.