CES has been going up consistently recently even after XD not long ago.
0.82 high today.
IMHO this counter might be severely undervalued by Mr Market.
Management bought back millions of shares at 0.74 to 0.76 cents. Current Market price is 0.805.
Hence, Market Cap works out to be $516mil.
Did anyone estimate the obscene profit CES will reflect in its book in the coming quarters?
I did some rough calculation using just one of its projects at Alexandra. it seems that just one major project can already earn enough to cover the current market cap.
450 hotel rooms x per key (range from$0.8 mil to $1.2 mil) = 450 x 0.9 = $405 mil (conservative)
Commercial retail space - 90,000 PSF x (selling PSF ranged from 4000 to 8000 PSF) = 90,000 x 5000 (conservative) = $450 mil (REVENUE)
[FULLY SOLD] There were at least 20 buyers on average for each unit at the launch of Alexandra Central, which is next to Ikea in Alexandra Road
http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-proper...l/a/102092
Total cost of land = $189mil.
Total construction cost = say $350 PSF for total GFA of 240,000 PSF = $84mil
Shareholder value from this single project alone ~ $582 mil , which is easily MORE THAN its current market cap, based on very conservative assumptions!!!
And this is just one project and there are many others.
The current NTA of around 80 cents seem to be grossly understated. Might be due for a Big upside revision soon.
Given that company was buying furiously at 75.5 cents on average, it could not be just for a meager 10-20% gain (IMHO)
Probably, Mr Market is missing out something BIG
http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...re-buyback
Is the $100mil profit an understatement for Alexandra Central?
Pls see my posting above.
(15-11-2013, 07:23 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, Junction 9 is going to make lots of money for Chip Eng Seng. Its the second big profit retail shop project after Alexandra Central. Both will make more than $100m profit each and will be booked all at 1-time.
I am looking towards 2014. If Alexandra Central TOP next year it will coincide with 3 other projects also TOP next year and all of them will have 1-time booking of profit. Gross Profit will surge to $250m.
Earnings per share will rise to more than 30ct per share!!!!!
(09-05-2014, 10:52 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Developers are still producing good profit, especially those smaller ones...
(not vested)
Chip Eng Seng's 1Q earnings surge more than fourfold to $21.6 mil
Chip Eng Seng Corporation said on May 8 that earnings for 1Q2014 ended March rose more than fourfold to $21.6 million from a year ago. Group revenue also grew 51.7% y-o-y to $197.8 million during the quarter, boosted by higher revenue from both its construction and property development business segments. The construction division reported a 9.6% increase in revenue to $71.7 million from new and ongoing projects in Tampines, Jurong West, Yishun, Bukit Batok and Bukit Panjang. Revenue from the property development business rose 95% to $125.1 million after its commercial project 100 Pasir Panjang obtained TOP in March.
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...6-mil.html#
I understand that it got liability of some 700m over, am I right?
I think we are talking about "NAV creation or Shareholder value creation" and the current NAV is grossly understated by 50 to 100% at least.
The current book NAV has already taken into account whatever current liabilities (including the $700 mil or whatever) the company might have.
Just need to do simple math to get a feel of the magnitude of undervaluation.
(16-07-2014, 12:40 AM)yewkim Wrote: [ -> ] (09-05-2014, 10:52 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Developers are still producing good profit, especially those smaller ones...
(not vested)
Chip Eng Seng's 1Q earnings surge more than fourfold to $21.6 mil
Chip Eng Seng Corporation said on May 8 that earnings for 1Q2014 ended March rose more than fourfold to $21.6 million from a year ago. Group revenue also grew 51.7% y-o-y to $197.8 million during the quarter, boosted by higher revenue from both its construction and property development business segments. The construction division reported a 9.6% increase in revenue to $71.7 million from new and ongoing projects in Tampines, Jurong West, Yishun, Bukit Batok and Bukit Panjang. Revenue from the property development business rose 95% to $125.1 million after its commercial project 100 Pasir Panjang obtained TOP in March.
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...6-mil.html#
I understand that it got liability of some 700m over, am I right?
Curiosparty, I think it's better to refer to Sumer's figures in Next insight forum. He has detailed analysis of the stock. I think one figure you may not know is that there was a report saying the total project at Alexandra is $350 million which I think consists of land and all other costs.
I think Sumer came up with a $146 million gross profit for the shops at Alexandra. Its hard to be exact as we don't know how CES will split to land cost between the hotel and shops. If they give lower cost of land to the shops then the shops will book more profit and the hotel will have less profit if it is revalued or sold. If it they give higher cost, then the shops will have less profit.
But I think estimates I see so far is full year EPS of 28-35 cent for 2014, meaning PE ratio is about 2 times plus. Junction 9 and 9 Residences revenue and profit is now going to be booked on % completion so 2014 can indeed be big figures year for the company as it will contain one-time booking of profit from 4 projects and % completion from Junction 9 (probably not 9 Resi as it sits on top of Junciton 9 so will not be built yet in 2014) and a little from Fulcrum and construction business.
CEs is still bidding for land in Singapore which show it does not think it is trapped with many unsold condo units. I am hoping they sell part of San Centre when it is refurbished but they can keep it as well as they want to make it perhaps their Headquarters.
I am looking for dividend of at least 6 ct per share or even more. Maybe interim dividend 2ct and final dividend the usual 4ct, plus maybe 2 ct special dividend? Hope I am not too optimistic.
Managed to get the data from property guru.
The average PSF sales was $5233 for the retail segment, bearing in mind that the full cost was only in the region of $1,000 PSF
a. Commercial retail space - 72,000 PSF (assuming 20% discount for common spaces) x (average PSF of 5233) = $377 mil(REVENUE)
b. 450 hotel rooms x per key (range from$0.8mil to $1.2 mil) = 450 x 0.9 (conservative) = $405 mil (REVENUE)
Overall cost = $350 mil. (how did we know whether the company did spend this stated amt in this project? usually there would be an incentive to overstate the cost of the project to garner media attention.
Total cost of land = $189mil.
Total construction and all other costs = say $350 PSF for total GFA of 240,000 PSF = $84mil
Earlier estimate of total cost = $273 mil
Shareholder value created = $432 mil or 67 cents. (if the higher cost of $350mil is used)
Is the NAV going to be revised upwards by 67 cents if the full impact of this project flows into the balance sheet?
(16-07-2014, 09:24 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]Curiosparty, I think it's better to refer to Sumer's figures in Next insight forum. He has detailed analysis of the stock. I think one figure you may not know is that there was a report saying the total project at Alexandra is $350 million which I think consists of land and all other costs.
I think Sumer came up with a $146 million gross profit for the shops at Alexandra. Its hard to be exact as we don't know how CES will split to land cost between the hotel and shops. If they give lower cost of land to the shops then the shops will book more profit and the hotel will have less profit if it is revalued or sold. If it they give higher cost, then the shops will have less profit.
But I think estimates I see so far is full year EPS of 28-35 cent for 2014, meaning PE ratio is about 2 times plus. Junction 9 and 9 Residences revenue and profit is now going to be booked on % completion so 2014 can indeed be big figures year for the company as it will contain one-time booking of profit from 4 projects and % completion from Junction 9 (probably not 9 Resi as it sits on top of Junciton 9 so will not be built yet in 2014) and a little from Fulcrum and construction business.
CEs is still bidding for land in Singapore which show it does not think it is trapped with many unsold condo units. I am hoping they sell part of San Centre when it is refurbished but they can keep it as well as they want to make it perhaps their Headquarters.
I am looking for dividend of at least 6 ct per share or even more. Maybe interim dividend 2ct and final dividend the usual 4ct, plus maybe 2 ct special dividend? Hope I am not too optimistic.