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Thank you guys.
I was really impressed with your generous sharing and your material facts.
This has help to ascertain my personal research and moved all my funds to some obviously highly undervalued SGX stocks.
I supposed share prices are made up of 30% fundamental & 70% market sentiment,
(This clearly explained the price of Chip Eng Seng).
Conversely, I believed in Fundamental above sentiment.
Good times or bad times, fundamental holds water all the time.
I first vested in CES as far back as it was 40 cts, went in and out countless times, the money was good, holding period usually more than 6 mths. Many a time, prices gets cheaper after my purchases but eventually gets higher without fail.
Thanks to fundamental, holding power and discipline.
Like many others, my analysis focuses on PE, EPS, Dividend yield, PB.
Above all, liquidity, fund managers interest, share-buy-back, company's integrity, dividend policy and consistency are all important considerations.
I also believed in diversification.
My portfolio includes CES, Ezion, Lee Metal, Koh Bros, Hong Fok and Sim Lian.
With each for a unique purpose but CES satisfies all my criterials, weighting more than half of my portfolio.
CES 9 mths result ( EPS 17 cts) was already unbelievable . Shockingly, the final 3 mths out-beat that, totaling FY EPS 44 cts. What a miracle result !
It has over performed, so much so that we must not expect history to repeat itself, next year.
However, I am comfortable with a buffer of 50% and still be glad with half of it's earning for coming the year.
Having said that, 97.5 cts is a ridiculous price for its excellent fundamental ! I continued my accumulation this afternoon, as this is simply the best value stock.
Of course Fund Managers are not sleeping. When market is slow, they are taking their time to collect. Analysts' radars must have captured this one but they are buying time to buy some prior to publishing, right ?
With the latest heavy Share-buy-back, the down side is almost Zero.
Dun worry, be patient. Time will tell.
The demand for CES share is getting stronger, just like crude oil. Happy too to be vested here. 1.10/1.14 is my target price for now. In the coming future, i do not know, but if no major event, it should be much higher. I am anticipating a coming correction for the DJIA. Maybe 2 months from now, my guess.

Thanks to all for all your hard work by putting the facts of this counter here for me to scrutinize.
Has anyone estimated how much net profit CES might have made from TM project alone?
Earlier I estimated it to be ~15 cents EPS but realized that it might be grossly understated. Looks like it might be ~30 cents instead.

Land cost = A$25.5mil
Construction cost = A$170mil
Other costs = 15% x 170mil = A$25.5 mil

Revenue = A$750 PSF x 600,000 = A$450mil

Net profit after tax = A$190mil or S$200mil or ~31.7 cents (SGD)

If EPS indeed turns out to be 30 cents instead of 15 cents, RNAV of CES is easily more than $2.20.
Current share price is 55% DISCOUNT to RNAV


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No wonder company bought back at 97.5 cents, and developers are all rushing into Melbourne.
Think there might be more share buyback ahead.
26 cents, my earlier calculation....
selling price record show at AUD821, but, i discount to use only AUD600. exchange rate is 1.1
this is at my record as the solely project finish at 2018
RT Knight Wrote:26 cents, my earlier calculation.... selling price record show at AUD821, but, i discount to use only AUD600. exchange rate is 1.1 this is at my record as the solely project finish at 2018


May I check the reason for your discounting ? Tks
Interest rate hike coming from usa, any effects on CES debt? Or investors didn't see that coming??

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BlueKelah Wrote:Interest rate hike coming from usa, any effects on CES debt? Or investors didn't see that coming?? -- via Xperia Z1 with tapatalk


massive QE in Japan , EU and China and policy still easing in Australia , etc -didn't investors see that coming? Smile

Are there more countries easing than tightening in the entire world ?
We wont really know until usa start tightening..

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(07-03-2015, 08:47 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Interest rate hike coming from usa, any effects on CES debt? Or investors didn't see that coming??

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That's the wrong question - any impact on the debt is very small. The real question is what the impact on their assets will be, ie what's the impact on the sg and aus property markets. And that who knows..
Sg market already prepared and down , aus market gonna get a big hit when rates go up, too much leverage there, resi loans can be up to 97% lvr and even cross collateralised

Currency wise also a huge drop if capital goes back.to usa, usa is the largest investor in au with china almost catching up last year

The gov there may be clamping down on foreign money coming from China

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