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I wonder what is a 'sustainable equilibrium'...

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...54738.html

POSTED: 17 Aug 2015 07:12
SINGAPORE: Property-cooling measures will stay for now and the right time to adjust or even lift some of the temporary initiatives is when the market equilibrium is a lot more certain and sustainable, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan.

Private-home prices fell 0.9 per cent between April and June, continuing a slide for the seventh quarter running — the longest streak in 13 years.

However, in an interview with TODAY last Thursday (Aug 13), Mr Khaw said that while the property market is “a lot less hot” and price adjustment in certain sub-sectors of the private market, for example, has been drastic, there is “some distance to go” in other segments.

While the authorities are monitoring the sales and purchase data in both private- and public-housing markets, they are also scrutinising the trends and price movements in sub-sectors, he added. “So it’s not a straightforward (matter of) looking for a figure or a statistic, then you say, ‘Aha, we have arrived’, because the various moving parts are actually interlinked.”

Mr Khaw noted that structural and temporary initiatives, such as Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty and loan-to-value limits, were among the several rounds of cooling measures rolled out by the Government.

“Measures have to be adjusted and perhaps even lifted, when it’s the right time. The right time is when the equilibrium is a lot more certain, more sustainable. And I don’t think we are at that point yet,” he said.

The external environment would also have an impact on Singapore’s economy and property market, he noted. A major factor is interest rates, and Mr Khaw pointed out that central banks all over the world had been talking about normalisation of interest rates for a long time. “It’s almost certain that the process towards normal will take a long time too.”

Adding that policymakers have been “lucky” with a property market that is “softening nicely”, Mr Khaw said: “It’s a complex system that we are part and parcel of. That’s why we have to watch carefully and, at various points, make some judgment calls.”

CONCERNS ABOUT OVERSUPPLY

The moribund housing market has set off a chorus of voices, especially from developers, calling for the property-cooling measures to be relaxed.

Last month, Monetary Authority of Singapore’s managing director Ravi Menon said it was premature to remove the cooling measures as the price correction had been modest, in the context of a 60 per cent increase in property prices over three years to reach their peak in 2013.

Amid concerns about an oversupply of public housing as the Government seeks to improve availability and affordability, Mr Khaw said there is “no policy to deliberately cause a glut”.

“What for? While a property bubble benefits no one, other than developers, a market collapse hurts everyone, with dire consequences for the rest of the economy,” he said.

After an unsustainable pace of construction in the past four years, the HDB has tapered the supply of new flats this year. “When I started this programme, I expected just two years of very intensive construction pace — practically with steroids,” Mr Khaw said.

Still, he said there has to be a “minimum level of construction pace”, regardless of the market condition.

“Because there will always be newly-weds... And if nothing else, the construction industry needs a certain minimum level of activities,” he said.

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-6497-...#pid118351

(18-08-2015, 12:59 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder what is a 'sustainable equilibrium'...

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...54738.html

POSTED: 17 Aug 2015 07:12
SINGAPORE: Property-cooling measures will stay for now and the right time to adjust or even lift some of the temporary initiatives is when the market equilibrium is a lot more certain and sustainable, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan.

Private-home prices fell 0.9 per cent between April and June, continuing a slide for the seventh quarter running — the longest streak in 13 years.

However, in an interview with TODAY last Thursday (Aug 13), Mr Khaw said that while the property market is “a lot less hot” and price adjustment in certain sub-sectors of the private market, for example, has been drastic, there is “some distance to go” in other segments.

While the authorities are monitoring the sales and purchase data in both private- and public-housing markets, they are also scrutinising the trends and price movements in sub-sectors, he added. “So it’s not a straightforward (matter of) looking for a figure or a statistic, then you say, ‘Aha, we have arrived’, because the various moving parts are actually interlinked.”

Mr Khaw noted that structural and temporary initiatives, such as Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty and loan-to-value limits, were among the several rounds of cooling measures rolled out by the Government.

“Measures have to be adjusted and perhaps even lifted, when it’s the right time. The right time is when the equilibrium is a lot more certain, more sustainable. And I don’t think we are at that point yet,” he said.

The external environment would also have an impact on Singapore’s economy and property market, he noted. A major factor is interest rates, and Mr Khaw pointed out that central banks all over the world had been talking about normalisation of interest rates for a long time. “It’s almost certain that the process towards normal will take a long time too.”

Adding that policymakers have been “lucky” with a property market that is “softening nicely”, Mr Khaw said: “It’s a complex system that we are part and parcel of. That’s why we have to watch carefully and, at various points, make some judgment calls.”

CONCERNS ABOUT OVERSUPPLY

The moribund housing market has set off a chorus of voices, especially from developers, calling for the property-cooling measures to be relaxed.

Last month, Monetary Authority of Singapore’s managing director Ravi Menon said it was premature to remove the cooling measures as the price correction had been modest, in the context of a 60 per cent increase in property prices over three years to reach their peak in 2013.

Amid concerns about an oversupply of public housing as the Government seeks to improve availability and affordability, Mr Khaw said there is “no policy to deliberately cause a glut”.

“What for? While a property bubble benefits no one, other than developers, a market collapse hurts everyone, with dire consequences for the rest of the economy,” he said.

After an unsustainable pace of construction in the past four years, the HDB has tapered the supply of new flats this year. “When I started this programme, I expected just two years of very intensive construction pace — practically with steroids,” Mr Khaw said.

Still, he said there has to be a “minimum level of construction pace”, regardless of the market condition.

“Because there will always be newly-weds... And if nothing else, the construction industry needs a certain minimum level of activities,” he said.

Raymond Chia is back, with new outfit in tow

Raymond Chia, who resigned as CEO of Chip Eng Seng late last year, has emerged on the property scene again.

LGB Corporation, the Singapore-incorporated outfit he set up in April this year, was in the news earlier this week for awarding the management contract for a 250-room hotel in Adelaide to Park Hotel Group.

When contacted by The Business Times on Thursday, Mr Chia let on that besides this project, which will come up on a site in Pirie Street in Adelaide's Central Business District, LGB Corporation has plans for other projects in Australia as well as Ho Chi Minh City and possibly Jakarta. The group is also open to opportunities in Singapore. "We may consider listing LGB Corporation on the Singapore Exchange depending on funding requirements," said Mr Chia.

The group is developing the Pirie Street project on a 14,000 sq ft freehold site. It acquired the site, which has a six-storey office block on it, recently for A$13  million (S$13.4 m). The office block will be torn down and construction of the 36-storey tower on the site is scheduled to begin in early 2017.

Besides the 250 hotel rooms, with an average size of 247 sq ft, there will be 250-280 apartments on the upper levels of the same tower. "These will comprise studios, one and two-bedders and will be launched for sale at a later date," said Mr Chia. The project is expected to be completed by 2019 and will have an estimated total development cost of A$175 million (S$180 million).

In another part of Adelaide, at the corner of North Terrace and West Terrace, LGB has been granted an option for the purchase of an approximately 27,000 sq ft freehold site that is currently occupied by a pub and discotheque.

"A heritage building stands on part of this site and we will restore it; the other structures on the rest of the site will be torn down and redeveloped. We are looking at an apartment and medical suites project," said Mr Chia. The site is opposite a big hospital being built by the government.

LGB Corporation will pay A$10.8 million for its site and the all-in development cost could be in the region of A$190 million.

Mr Chia, 49, said he chose the name 'LGB' for his new outfit after the first letters of the names of his three children, Lynn, Gwen and Benjamin. Mr Chia is the son-in-law of Lim Tiam Seng, the founder and executive chairman of listed Chip Eng Seng Corporation, which is involved in property and construction. Chip Eng Seng has been in the news recently for achieving strong sales at High Park Residences in Fernvale Road.

LGB Corporation is fully owned by 5ASR Pte Ltd, which in turn is 60 per cent controlled by LGB Investments. The latter is two-thirds owned by Mr Chia with the remaining one-third held by Alan Wang, founder of Asdew Acquisitions. Mr Wang, a former Kim Eng director, is a dealmaker and has invested in many companies.

The remaining 40 per cent of 5ASR is owned by Lian Soon Holdings (25 per cent) and We Lim (15 per cent). Both are in the construction business.

Mr Chia said that LGB Corporation is in advanced discussions to buy a freehold development site in a Sydney suburb for a residential and serviced apartment project. "The development cost is expected to come in at around A$60 million. We are likely to have a partner for this project."

In Vietnam, LGB Corporation is ironing out the proposed acquisition of a 200,000 sq ft site in a suburb of Ho Chi Minh City. The plan is to build a project with about 1,500 apartments for the mass-market segment.


It will cost about US$85 million to develop this project and LGB plans to take take the lead in a consortium that is likely to include Singapore and Vietnamese partners. The group is also eyeing development opportunities in Jakarta (mostly in the residential segment) as well as all sectors of the Singapore real estate market.

- See more at: http://business.asiaone.com/news/raymond...1Fp34.dpuf

Dear fellow VB (and fellow CES shareholders),

I read this news about Raymond and LGB with quite a bit of confusion. Raymond coming back again in the property scene, especially in Australia. He could well stay in CES and do spearhead the same projects. But, with him out of CES and taking on these new developments, it does make me wonder if this is a way of competing with CES (and his father in law).

Would CES end up losing its edge with the son in law playing as a potential competitor in this same industry? CES management surely has good track record. But, the son in law coming back in the field leads to many questions, especially whether this would erode CES competitive moat over time. Not forgetting that CES is still without a CEO.

Vested at the moment.

No stopping Melbourne CBD oversupply: ‘Get out as soon as possible’

New laws to clamp down on Melbourne CBD’s skyscrapers won’t stop a predicted drop in prices of up to 20 per cent in the next three years, according to a property research house.

Strict new density regulations announced by Planning Minister Richard Wynne on Saturday that limit the height of future towers to 24 floors unless open space offsets are provided won’t stop a “correction” for inner city apartment prices, said BIS Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor.

Building approvals hit record highs under former Planning Minister Matthew Guy, dubbed Mr Skyscraper because of his aim to make Melbourne “the tallest skyline in Australia”, as property industry pundits warned of an oversupply.

Read more here http://www.domain.com.au/news/no-stopping-melbourne-cbd-oversupply-get-out-as-soon-as-possible-20150908-gjhbqi/


Looks like its going to be hard times for both Raymond and CES. Good thing CES sold one project off liao in Melbourne. TM is probably a no go now from the looks of things evolving, since they will have to renew the planning permit come end of this year and the new rules are for future towers to be capped at 24storeys.

I think its good not to consider TM project figures in our calculation. Just treat it as zero value or if we want to be even more prudent give it a negative value as there is at least currency loss due to fallen AUD.

I think Raymond seemed to steer clear of Melbourne but going into other Aussie cities perhaps due to agreement with CES.

I think CES will likely exit Aussie market as it seem that Raymond is the Aussie connection.

Judging by the way HighPark sold so well I think CES is in good hand as the sales show very good execution. Will patiently wait to see the direction of the company post Yishun High Park projects.

Hope they launch Perth project smoothly as Scarbough seem to be stirring with the launch of a project there recently called Sundance, very near to CES site.

RNAV of easily above $1.50 and likely 4ct Dividend per year for year end 2015 and 2016 based on past years history of generous management make current stock price worth considering. Earnings this year also shd be very good due to quick construction at Junciton  9 and 9 Residences. 

(20-09-2015, 07:58 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]I think its good not to consider TM project figures in our calculation. Just treat it as zero value or if we want to be even more prudent give it a negative value as there is at least currency loss due to fallen AUD.

I think Raymond seemed to steer clear of Melbourne but going into other Aussie cities perhaps due to agreement with CES.

I think CES will likely exit Aussie market as it seem that Raymond is the Aussie connection.

Judging by the way HighPark sold so well I think CES is in good hand as the sales show very good execution. Will patiently wait to see the direction of the company post Yishun High Park projects.

Hope they launch Perth project smoothly as Scarbough seem to be stirring with the launch of a project there recently called Sundance, very near to CES site.

RNAV of easily above $1.50 and likely 4ct Dividend per year for year end 2015 and 2016 based on past years history of generous management make current stock price worth considering. Earnings this year also shd be very good due to quick construction at Junciton  9 and 9 Residences. 

Perth project unlikely to do well since its not launch yet and there is a worsening property downturn going on there that will contribute to the eventual apartment glut. The area there is being planned for 2800 units to come up, currently there are a lot of other projects coming up in that suburb, so unit oversupply is just a matter of time.

Company purchase property in 217, 221-223 Separation Street, Northcote, Victoria, Australia.
AUD$ 27 millions for a 192k sft land area site.

Congrats to the vested shareholders who didn't exit when it hit the bottom. CES making a come back.

(20-09-2015, 07:58 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: [ -> ]I think its good not to consider TM project figures in our calculation. Just treat it as zero value or if we want to be even more prudent give it a negative value as there is at least currency loss due to fallen AUD.

I think Raymond seemed to steer clear of Melbourne but going into other Aussie cities perhaps due to agreement with CES.

I think CES will likely exit Aussie market as it seem that Raymond is the Aussie connection.

Judging by the way HighPark sold so well I think CES is in good hand as the sales show very good execution. Will patiently wait to see the direction of the company post Yishun High Park projects.

Hope they launch Perth project smoothly as Scarbough seem to be stirring with the launch of a project there recently called Sundance, very near to CES site.

RNAV of easily above $1.50 and likely 4ct Dividend per year for year end 2015 and 2016 based on past years history of generous management make current stock price worth considering. Earnings this year also shd be very good due to quick construction at Junciton  9 and 9 Residences. 

Looks like some good news filtering in on Tower Melbourne.
https://urban.melbourne/forum/cbd-tower-...ial?page=5

At the same time, JV with LGB, Raymond Chia's new company. Seems that it's going to be more of a ally/partner?
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/JOINT%20...eID=374455