I taught you are very bullish on CES cos' it's RNAV is >1.50?
Now price dive a bit, you confident also affected. Mmmm
Vested.
(15-10-2014, 09:53 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]The share price of CES is behaving as if upcoming results are going to be very bad.... Can this happen?
CuriousParty is happily scooping up shares for next year lah.
still going quite steady, only drop 5% from peak levels.
Read my previous post you will see my list of key risk for CES.
Is the ValueBuddies forum that powerful that CuriousParty feels he can run a scare campaign and it will drop the share price a little?
(15-10-2014, 10:59 AM)roxhockey Wrote: [ -> ]Is the ValueBuddies forum that powerful that CuriousParty feels he can run a scare campaign and it will drop the share price a little?
Not sure, CP has been rather positive all along about this stock and at times daily postings did look like trying to run a "pump" campaign.
I have not been positive on property sector for a while now and just comment on CES as all the previous posts just sounded too positive to me and wanted to highlight some of risks with other VBs..
October liao and I am still wondering what's up with Tower Melbourne
Depending on how the apartment overload situation worsens in melbourne, there is a risk CES may scrap the Tower projects in MElbourne and use the proceeds of Alex project in SG to pare down it's debt.
I think it would be quite difficult to scrap TM as the project is substantially sold already. Australian consumer protection law much stronger than SG, so they probably don't have discretion in the contract. Would need each and every buyer to agree probably. But if it's all sold anyway the price risk sits with the buyer not CES so they can still go ahead - problem would be if they had to sue people to pay up.
You cant sue ppl to pay up as OTP contracts allow buyers to forfeit 10% deposit and walk away.
TM can just say unable to proceed with construction and project will be ended. The other tower not started yet can just cancel.
via Xperia Z1 with Android 4.4.4 tapatalk.
Australian sale contracts are normally binding, not OTP. And Australian contracts are not allowed to contain clauses that let the developer cancel for any reason, they can only cancel for specified reasons eg can't get planning approval or the like. I haven't checked CES but I assume their contracts for TM are in line with market standard. Australian law is definitely much stricter for developers than in SG (although note they can sell TM to Singapore investors under Sg law contracts).
CuriousParty, as a real answer to your question, the chance of a real negative shock in the results is almost zero, as they've just issued $150m debt and it would be securities fraud not to disclose major negative news when issuing securities. But I don't think you were really concerned in the first place..
How much will CES "Bleed" from the TM project if it is aborted?
Can CES walk away from TM project just like that? consumers will lose their 10% deposit? Does CES have to return the deposit? How does it work?
Will CES be sued by customers? tks.
(15-10-2014, 10:54 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]CuriousParty is happily scooping up shares for next year lah.
still going quite steady, only drop 5% from peak levels.
Read my previous post you will see my list of key risk for CES.
(15-10-2014, 03:18 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]How much will CES "Bleed" from the TM project if it is aborted?
Can CES walk away from TM project just like that? consumers will lose their 10% deposit? Does CES have to return the deposit? How does it work?
Will CES be sued by customers? tks.
(15-10-2014, 10:54 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]CuriousParty is happily scooping up shares for next year lah.
still going quite steady, only drop 5% from peak levels.
Read my previous post you will see my list of key risk for CES.
CP, as you have previously pointed out, CES will not "bleed" much from the cancellation of TM since they can convert the building into a hotel anyways which will add NAV and revenue down the road.
Of course, they can't just cancel the project for no reason but can come up with lots of "unforseen" circumstances. In fact some investors must be getting a bit nervous with the constant delays and lack of update from developer, since they have not update the website or released info that construction has recommence, one can only deduce that there is still something blocking the project from resuming.
The risk is with those who purchased their OTP apartment in TM. CES can delay the project pending various approvals and lawsuits without any loss and continue to profit from the deposits collected. As for sueing CES, buyers can't really do much as OTP contracts already have many warnings to the buyer that development could get delayed for various reason not in control by developer, etc etc...
Delay for CEL just means they will have to pay interest on loans to build and for building crew to standby which are the costly parts of any delayed project. Delays are the risky and costly parts of any new development.
Tks.
Are we able to roughly estimate the cost of 1 year of delay in say $mil ? (e.g. additional interest cost, additional labour cost, etc)
Will the cost of project delay reduce the original projected profit to ZERO?
(01-09-2014, 10:30 AM)pianist Wrote: [ -> ] (01-09-2014, 09:23 AM)tpooyee Wrote: [ -> ] (31-08-2014, 12:23 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Let me clarify why CES is trading as such a discount to its RNAV as CP has calculated.
CP you gotta seriously look at the reasons for CES undervalued instead of repeating 'ad nauseam' everyday that this stock is undervalued and should be worth more.
Altot CES is one of my favorite stock and i vested a lot since long time but I do agreed with you that someone keep promoting ad nauseam at VB and nextinsight really make me feel uncomfortable. Anyway, i get used to it and just skip those post I feel non-constructive and repeating post.
curious if CP is working in the govt sector.
(15-10-2014, 05:28 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ] (15-10-2014, 03:18 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]How much will CES "Bleed" from the TM project if it is aborted?
Can CES walk away from TM project just like that? consumers will lose their 10% deposit? Does CES have to return the deposit? How does it work?
Will CES be sued by customers? tks.
(15-10-2014, 10:54 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]CuriousParty is happily scooping up shares for next year lah.
still going quite steady, only drop 5% from peak levels.
Read my previous post you will see my list of key risk for CES.
CP, as you have previously pointed out, CES will not "bleed" much from the cancellation of TM since they can convert the building into a hotel anyways which will add NAV and revenue down the road.
Of course, they can't just cancel the project for no reason but can come up with lots of "unforseen" circumstances. In fact some investors must be getting a bit nervous with the constant delays and lack of update from developer, since they have not update the website or released info that construction has recommence, one can only deduce that there is still something blocking the project from resuming.
The risk is with those who purchased their OTP apartment in TM. CES can delay the project pending various approvals and lawsuits without any loss and continue to profit from the deposits collected. As for sueing CES, buyers can't really do much as OTP contracts already have many warnings to the buyer that development could get delayed for various reason not in control by developer, etc etc...
Delay for CEL just means they will have to pay interest on loans to build and for building crew to standby which are the costly parts of any delayed project. Delays are the risky and costly parts of any new development.