Anyone has any prelim estimate of the upcoming Q1 results? tks.
Looking scary by the day....
technical chart does not look good, but fundamental value remains the same.
My prelim forecast for 2015 still remains:-
1. EPS ~ 20 cents
2. NAV (year end) ~ $1.60 (including hotel revaluation gain and after deducting off 6 cents dividends)
Didnt expect this gem to fall so drastically...maybe upcoming results very bad...those bought before dividend must be pretty sad or worried..
(08-05-2015, 05:20 PM)westin1 Wrote: [ -> ]Didnt expect this gem to fall so drastically...maybe upcoming results very bad...those bought before dividend must be pretty sad or worried..
Actually, its very good news for shareholders. If NAV is $1.60 by end of year then every share the company buys back will turn $1 into $2. If it falls to 40c as you seem to think it will then that'd be even better - turning $1 into $4! I'm hoping management will be aggressive and accelerare the buyback.
(08-05-2015, 08:09 PM)roxhockey Wrote: [ -> ] (08-05-2015, 05:20 PM)westin1 Wrote: [ -> ]Didnt expect this gem to fall so drastically...maybe upcoming results very bad...those bought before dividend must be pretty sad or worried..
Actually, its very good news for shareholders. If NAV is $1.60 by end of year then every share the company buys back will turn $1 into $2. If it falls to 40c as you seem to think it will then that'd be even better - turning $1 into $4! I'm hoping management will be aggressive and accelerare the buyback.
Your statement is not wrong. I just wondering how it work in reality. One must have nerve of steel and extremely long investment window to manage seeing your investment shrink day by day. If the holding is substantial, every 1 cent movement can be 5k, 10k, 15k or even more. Not everyone can sit still seeing such paper loss and more often than not, most people will sell at a loss, falling into the proverbial of 'buy high, sell low'.
Even if you are a true disciple of Graham, even if you have wrote yourself a statement that say 'I will not sell the shares for the next 10 years after I bought it', can you really be that unmoved? Wouldn't doubts will start to set in? Why the market doesn't appreciate the company? Will and how long before the market realise the true value of the company? What if the market never does? (value trap?). Is there anything I don't know???
To me, I believe in value investing. Therefore, don't have to see messages in the forum so often. The last counter I bought (not CES) I have wrote a statement exactly that, 'I will not sell for the next 10 years'. I don't know what will happen after 10 years but if it continue to pay dividends I guess I shouldn't be too worse off. A yearly returns of 2.5 to 3.5% plus some capital appreciation is all I ask for.
Actually my post got nothing to do with CES, just that your message set me thinking. Hope you don't view it as hijacking your post.
If your company has:
Improving fundamentals
Consistently returning capital (via dividends or buybacks)
Then I feel its not that hard to hold through price fluctuations.
If you pick a company like that then its actually hard for the stock price to fall and remain low because there's a natural floor under the price. E.g. if a company has a sustainable dividend yield of 7% and it falls by half, the yield would be 14% - its not going to stay there for long...
What is the natural floor for CES? If we assume 4 cents dividend is sustainable, is 80 cents the natural floor?
One ought to remember that CES has bought back millions and millions of shares from below 80 cents all the way to
92* cents.
*During the CD period, CES bought ~ 5mil shares at 97-98 cents (equivalent to XD 91-92 cent)
(08-05-2015, 09:55 PM)roxhockey Wrote: [ -> ]If your company has:
Improving fundamentals
Consistently returning capital (via dividends or buybacks)
Then I feel its not that hard to hold through price fluctuations.
If you pick a company like that then its actually hard for the stock price to fall and remain low because there's a natural floor under the price. E.g. if a company has a sustainable dividend yield of 7% and it falls by half, the yield would be 14% - its not going to stay there for long...