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Even bungalows sold out. Semi-Ds also left 2 units only. Quite stunning.

1390 units quite a massive project, it will be quite crowded place to stay wonder how to breathe some private space for the lift pool or even the security gateway. Looked at the floor plans seems like two bedded type dun look good.

Any buddies here did an RNAV accretion analysis for High Park Residences? My estimates:

Land Cost: 487 M
Construction Cost: 260 M
Other Misc Cost (Eng, Archi, Marketing, Legal): 100 M
Total Area: 1.0985 M
CES Total Shares Outstanding: 667.5 M
CES Stake in Project: 60%

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 950
RNAV Accretion: 17.7c per share

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 900
RNAV Accretion: 12.7c per share

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...14-46.aspx
http://english.cscec.com/art/2015/6/24/a...15419.html

(20-07-2015, 12:29 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: [ -> ]Any buddies here did an RNAV accretion analysis for High Park Residences? My estimates:

Land Cost: 487 M
Construction Cost: 260 M
Other Misc Cost (Eng, Archi, Marketing, Legal): 100 M
Total Area: 1.0985 M
CES Total Shares Outstanding: 667.5 M
CES Stake in Project: 60%

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 950
RNAV Accretion: 17.7c per share

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 900
RNAV Accretion: 12.7c per share

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...14-46.aspx
http://english.cscec.com/art/2015/6/24/a...15419.html

Hmm... China construction company... Good luck to all the buyers.....

(20-07-2015, 01:22 PM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]

(20-07-2015, 12:29 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: [ -> ]Any buddies here did an RNAV accretion analysis for High Park Residences? My estimates:

Land Cost: 487 M
Construction Cost: 260 M
Other Misc Cost (Eng, Archi, Marketing, Legal): 100 M
Total Area: 1.0985 M
CES Total Shares Outstanding: 667.5 M
CES Stake in Project: 60%

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 950
RNAV Accretion: 17.7c per share

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 900
RNAV Accretion: 12.7c per share

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...14-46.aspx
http://english.cscec.com/art/2015/6/24/a...15419.html

Hmm... China construction company... Good luck to all the buyers.....

well, looking at the past projects of the company, I think the buyers will feel more relieved

(20-07-2015, 01:22 PM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]

(20-07-2015, 12:29 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: [ -> ]Any buddies here did an RNAV accretion analysis for High Park Residences? My estimates:

Land Cost: 487 M
Construction Cost: 260 M
Other Misc Cost (Eng, Archi, Marketing, Legal): 100 M
Total Area: 1.0985 M
CES Total Shares Outstanding: 667.5 M
CES Stake in Project: 60%

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 950
RNAV Accretion: 17.7c per share

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 900
RNAV Accretion: 12.7c per share

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...14-46.aspx
http://english.cscec.com/art/2015/6/24/a...15419.html

Hmm... China construction company... Good luck to all the buyers.....

It's a good move by the developer to keep costs down.

Back when CES won the land tender, people were talking about how the depressed market means we can forget about profits, and it's just to keep the construction arm busy through this thin period.

Well, this is another proof of management acumen - they know what they are doing. The profits from this project is going to be very significant, and financing costs will also be greatly reduced due to the large amount of early purchases.

(20-07-2015, 12:29 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: [ -> ]Any buddies here did an RNAV accretion analysis for High Park Residences? My estimates:

Land Cost: 487 M
Construction Cost: 260 M
Other Misc Cost (Eng, Archi, Marketing, Legal): 100 M
Total Area: 1.0985 M
CES Total Shares Outstanding: 667.5 M
CES Stake in Project: 60%

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 950
RNAV Accretion: 17.7c per share

Assuming Average Selling PSF: 900
RNAV Accretion: 12.7c per share

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...14-46.aspx
http://english.cscec.com/art/2015/6/24/a...15419.html

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg//compani...residences

Seems that it's an average of $970 psf, beyond even my high side estimate. That bumps up RNAV accretion to 19.6c per share, or 25% of today's closing share price.

Happily vested.

I went to the showroom last Sunday. I was told that the average price is about $950 psf. Smaller units are sold at > $1,000 psf while bigger units are sold at below $900 psf. It has more than 50% 2 bedroom units. I believe for the first week sales reported by BT, the average psf was skewed by the smaller units, which are most popular. It is safer to use $950 psf to estimate the revenue for this project.

My own estimation of CES' share of profit is $102m (about 16.4 cents per share) and the profit margin is about 15.9%.

The construction contract of US$190m is quite low as it translates to $232 psf. As a comparison, the construction contract for Amore EC works out to be $264 psf with a GFA which is about 40% of High Park Residences.

The sales for this project also shows that properties that are priced below about $800k per unit is still popular among buyers.

(not vested)

NAV at start of 2015 $1.17
Hotel revaluation $0.25
2015 EPS $0.20
2016 EPS $0.21
Fernvale (estimated TOP - 2019) $0.19
TM project (estimated TOP 2019) $0.25
Estimated RNAV (as of now) $2.10


Is the current share price of only $0.745 far too low and unjustified?

___________
Recent Share Buybacks
$0.772 ( 1,309,400 shares) - 29 June 2015
$0.794 (745,500 shares) - 5 June 2015
_____________________________________________________________________________

(02-08-2015, 11:18 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Is the current share price of only $0.745 far too low and unjustified?

Probably not. If TM and Fernvale are discounted for and a 50% discount is then taken for this being a developer with high debt in a low interest rate environment,$0.745 is not too far off the valuation mark.