(25-02-2015, 05:51 PM)CCUV Wrote: [ -> ]2 cents worth,we have some listed property companies trading at 40 percent discount to nav,I hope no one got carry away,what chip made is legacy profit,going forward there are not much things to look forward,in my personal view it is fairly priced
Sorry but I don't think it's right to apply the same discount to RNAV (or any discount at all for that matter) across the entire sector. All things being equal between 2 developers (number of projects/units and margins), I would apply a very different discount if one of them has only 50% of the units sold and the other with 90% sold. It's all about the perceived risks in realizing their projected value. Put simply, the RNAV becomes the NAV for a developer that has sold out all their projects. Would you still apply a discount in this case?
For CES right now, I think it's reasonable to consider all their launched projects as fully sold apart from Fulcrum (technically Nine Residences and 100 PP still has some unsold units but they are almost there). Fulcrum is still an unknown but it's not an overly large project (111 units to clear) so I am not worried yet. Believe they have some scope to cut prices without making a loss even in current market conditions.
For projects yet to launch, there is only one - Fernvale. Land cost for the 2 parcels are reasonable and I foresee that they will be able to price it at 920-950 psf and be able to move all units. This will still mean a decent EPS of around 12c based on my estimates.
For me the discount to be applied to CES is to the unknown of Fulcrum and Fernvale.
I am not considering Tower Melbourne for now because I already removed it completely from my RNAV estimate some time ago. My RNAV estimate including recurring income and construction contribution is ard 1.50 btw.
In the interest of disclosure, I have been vested in this counter for last 3 years plus even through the depth of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis when it fell to close to 30c I remember. I actually weighed taking profit at various points but this CES kept surprising me with compelling developments and I held on and even continued accumulating up till 80c. Ironically, the closest point of me getting out was when they paid 789 psf for the alexandra hotel site back in Dec 2011 lol. I was thinking then who in the right mind will think it's a good idea to develop a hotel there but who knew that they managed to recover the full development cost and partial land cost from just selling the commercial units alone.
I had the same concerns as CCUV; the price / NAV for CES is high compared to the same ratio for Hiap Hoe which I have already divested, but I do agree with views of VBs that ability to sell the units represented by earnings is critical to whether to discount and how much to discount in order to derive RNAV for the business. I've learned much from all of you; thanks very much!
(25-02-2015, 10:03 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Tks for the many skeptics, forummers and analysts who have continued to remain skeptical and it has allowed CES to remain undervalued.
Really THANK YOU VERY MUCH 
(25-02-2015, 10:23 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Skeptics are friend to value investors. It will force you to review, reaffirm, and then re-enforce your conviction on a stock if remains valuable.
We should be nice to friends, rather than be sarcastic, if any. 
(IIRC, I am not one of those provided the skeptics, I suppose 
)
CP has been a renowned skeptic in a few threads so I guess she should know the drill
Developers unlike REITS which pass through income, trades at discount to RNAV as they recycle their capital. Million $ question is of course how wide should the discount be, which is the value add of the seasoned property investors
let the market align. no need to worry about the share price, unless you are going to sell soon.
The great thing is that, the TM seem like still in the game. I see the group is willing to resolve the issue with the adjoining owner... "With regards to Tower Melbourne, the Group is still handling the proceedings brought about by the owner of the adjoining building. We intend to resume demolition work in 2015".
Besides, there is also some detail regarding the perth land. In the recent presentation slide, we can see the GFA of the project is about 486,113 sft. Not a small project.
Hopefully, we can have more confirm information from the April AGM regarding these 2 project (TM & West Cost Highway Perth) in Australia.
(26-02-2015, 11:23 AM)RT Knight Wrote: [ -> ]let the market align. no need to worry about the share price, unless you are going to sell soon.
The great thing is that, the TM seem like still in the game. I see the group is willing to resolve the issue with the adjoining owner... "With regards to Tower Melbourne, the Group is still handling the proceedings brought about by the owner of the adjoining building. We intend to resume demolition work in 2015".
Besides, there is also some detail regarding the perth land. In the recent presentation slide, we can see the GFA of the project is about 486,113 sft. Not a small project.
Hopefully, we can have more confirm information from the April AGM regarding these 2 project (TM & West Cost Highway Perth) in Australia.
Start of new levy on foreign investors and tightening of rules on existing owners to be finalised in a months time does not bode well for aussie property market.
There is no way to resolve the TM problem other than to cancel it, which is what the other side is aiming for. trying to sell CUB also signals that approval for further development is likely to be difficult to obtain, given the local minister who approved TM has been ousted in the latest election.
Unlike Sydney/Melbourne markets, Perth property market has been in downturn, tracking the drop in mining investment.
Further catalyst for this stock probably would come from SG side rather than Au side.
I noticed that not many analyst like to talk about ces, no target price or buy/sell calls... wondering why... by today, there should be at least a few reports..hmmm
(26-02-2015, 01:46 PM)westin1 Wrote: [ -> ]I noticed that not many analyst like to talk about ces, no target price or buy/sell calls... wondering why... by today, there should be at least a few reports..hmmm
Most counter covered by analyst are for them to play and push up. for example riverstone. Just means they have not rotate to come play ces yet.
-- via Xperia Z1 with tapatalk
Good one blue, hopefully can raise target prices to $1.17 or $1.22 as some forummers calculated...
westin1 Wrote:Good one blue, hopefully can raise target prices to $1.17 or $1.22 as some forummers calculated...
some of the analyst reports are quite "laughable " as their estimates were so vastly different from the actual results. Hence I just read most of them for my own amusement and for pleasure . Tks
(26-02-2015, 02:52 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]westin1 Wrote:Good one blue, hopefully can raise target prices to $1.17 or $1.22 as some forummers calculated...
some of the analyst reports are quite "laughable " as their estimates were so vastly different from the actual results. Hence I just read most of them for my own amusement and for pleasure . Tks
Speaking of which, I remember reading analyst report on UE and it was so recent..... their target price was 1.56, if I'm remember correctly. And, we all know how much higher UE did recently.
Still must DYODD.
