27 cents broken too....wow...exciting..!
Let's see how low it will correct....
Those who bought in anticipation of huge special dividends payout might have been greatly disappointed by the uncertainty...
Well I am invested and will buy up more
(11-05-2012, 02:25 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]27.5 cents broken. Next level 27 cents
losing confidence becos of CFO's departure?
Meaning no more special dividends from New Toyo?
This is very disappointing....
(11-05-2012, 04:19 PM)Underdogger Wrote: [ -> ]27 cents broken too....wow...exciting..!
Let's see how low it will correct....
Those who bought in anticipation of huge special dividends payout might have been greatly disappointed by the uncertainty...
Well I am invested and will buy up more
(11-05-2012, 02:25 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]27.5 cents broken. Next level 27 cents
losing confidence becos of CFO's departure?
Increasing tobacco consumption in emerging markets that would largely cushion the impact of negative trends in the developed Western markets.
**********
http://www.prweb.com/releases/tobacco_ci...164863.htm
GIA announces the release of a comprehensive global outlook on the Tobacco Industry. Growth in the global market for tobacco products has been restricted during the past few years due to government regulations and rising health concerns associated with smoking across the world. Companies worldwide have been forced to adhere to laws that prohibit them from promoting tobacco products. However, demand continued to rise worldwide, and is expected to do so through the analysis period, albeit at a sluggish pace, driven mainly by increasing tobacco consumption in emerging markets that would largely cushion the impact of negative trends in the developed Western markets.
Tobacco industry rides out recession with rising share prices. Cigarette shares defy falling sales. The secret? When taxes rise for health reasons, manufacturers increase their prices too....Tobacco companies are recession - busters for many many more years to come.......
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/...-recession
The rate at which people are quitting smoking has slowed down at the same time as economic worries have increased...
People who quit are relapsing back to previous smoking behaviour, as the recession puts them under a lot of stress........
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/...29127.html
Cigarette consumption has been levelling off and on the decline in recent years in many developed countries in western Europe and North America, according to WHO. But the epidemic is now shifting to developing nations and global smoking prevalence is expected to increase at a steady rate over the next three decades.
http://www.lancet.com/journals/lancet/ar...9/fulltext
This upward trend in Singapore may seem surprising given that, until recently, tobacco consumption had been steadily falling. It suggests that current anti-tobacco strategies including increased tobacco taxes and public education campaigns are inadequate and are largely ineffective at preventing young people from taking up smoking. Furthermore, it suggests that tobacco companies have been successful in targeting young Singaporeans in particular.
http://www.tobaccofreesingapore.info/201...-urgently/
Next week, New Toyo will report its first quarter financial results.
Hope it does well.
Pro-forma (full year)
Full year net income = $16mil or $4mil per Q.
Full-year EBITDA = $40mil or $10mil per Q.
[assuming new supply contract for speciality paper kicks in from Q3 2012]
Company should not include contribution from SAH in its financial statement !
********
1st Q actual results
a. New Toyo's share of Tien Wah = (54% x 4.02 + 3.33 + 0.552) RM /2.4511 = SD $2.47mil
b. SP portion = may be only SD $1.25mil (as new supply contract for Special Paper with Phillip Morris will only kick in from Q3 2012)
Total = $3.72mil for Q1 (forecast)
Well quite close to $4mil (pro-forma)
Cashflow is stable similar to that of utility companies...
(12-05-2012, 09:02 AM)ken Wrote: [ -> ]Next week, New Toyo will report its first quarter financial results.
Hope it does well.
For those who alleged that Tien Wah or New Toyo has a high debt.
Tien Wah's total debt as of end Q1 2012 = $100mil RM.
It pays off its debt briskly from the stable cashflow of existing operations at the rate of $10mil RM per Q.
Only need 10 Q or 2.5 yrs to be totally debt-free
Tien Wah's depreciation and amortisation amounted to RM 7m in 1Q, or RMB 28m per year.
With the completion of equipment acquisition in 2011, annual profit of around RMB 37m (last year's) plus RMB 28m non-cash expenses (in depreciation and amortisation) will be sufficient for regular dividend payment (RM 13m for 2011) and retiring the entire RM 102m bank borrowings within two years.
Again, no much bids seen today..Might drop further again?
The longer the resolution of SAH drags (special dividends or none at all or whatever they want to do with the shell, etc), the harder New Toyo is going to get hit....
(11-05-2012, 10:27 PM)potatolover Wrote: [ -> ]Meaning no more special dividends from New Toyo?
This is very disappointing....
(11-05-2012, 04:19 PM)Underdogger Wrote: [ -> ]27 cents broken too....wow...exciting..!
Let's see how low it will correct....
Those who bought in anticipation of huge special dividends payout might have been greatly disappointed by the uncertainty...
Well I am invested and will buy up more
(11-05-2012, 02:25 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]27.5 cents broken. Next level 27 cents
losing confidence becos of CFO's departure?
Will the asset sales by SAH highlight the value proposition of New Toyo (e.g. sales value of sum of parts > sales value of whole)
OR
will it just highlight its strategic vulnerabilities? (e.g. revenue/profit loss from key subsidiary, over-reliant on just a few key customers given the oligopolistic nature of the tobacco markets, etc)
How do we know that New Toyo will continue to secure long term contracts with their key clients?
What are the barriers to entry ? (equipment, skills , cost?)
Some of my friends said that afterall, it is just a printing job and how difficult can it be?
Any takers?
One of my friends made this analogy b/w ERP and cigarette smoking...
No matter how high the ERP or car COE premium becomes, there will always be car drivers. There will always be people willing to pay the high ERP and COE premium to enjoy the comfort of driving around...
The same goes for cigarette smoking. 15% to 20% rate is about the lowest we would probably see in the rate of smoking in developed countries no matter how the government does. Going any further would be treading dangerous grounds. Nanny state syndrome (no fatty food, no alcohol, etc, etc)