(16-11-2014, 09:35 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]In BAT's latest 2014 Q3 results, Vietnam's volume had shown a decline!
{Extract from BAT 2014 Q3}
"Cigarette volume from subsidiaries was 495 billion, down by 1.0%, with growth in many markets, including the
Middle East, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Pakistan, Ukraine, Turkey and Indonesia, more than offset by lower volume in Russia, Vietnam , Brazil, Poland and Canada, mainly driven by industry decline. Total tobacco volume was also 1.0% lower."
"The five Global Drive Brands’ cigarette volume was up by 6.2%, and their combined market share continued to grow strongly in the Group’s key markets. Dunhill’s volume increased by 3.5%, with good growth in Indonesia, Brazil and South Korea partially offset by market decline in Malaysia. Kent’s volume decreased by 2.7% mainly due to market contraction in Russia and Romania, partially offset by good growth in the Middle East and Japan."
This is very bad considering the fact that Vietnam is one of the last few good markets for Tien Wah/New Toyo. The fact is that industry volume is declining. The pie is getting smaller for everyone.
Hi Curiousparty,
No need to use such large text size in your future posts. And the font color too, it's blinding. Thanks.
Let's see if New Toyo goes below 20 cents. there is where value would emerge (IMHO)...
If BAT does not renew the contract, then it is not even worth 20 cents. It would just be an empty shell with some specialty paper business plus some rental income from some properties.
Btw, Tien Wah (54% owned by New Toyo) had plunged from 2.60 RM (peak) to only 1.86 RM or 30% drop.
New Toyo had dropped from 32 cents to 25 cents (20% drop). Perhaps, New Toyo has much more room to drop...
What's the net cash and properties worth in New Toyo? That will give us the bottom line....
I think it doesn't really matter since apart from paying decent dividends, they have no intentions whatsoever to unlock them.
They even don't have any interests to realise the shell value of Shanghai Asia - just allowed it to be wind up... Its a sin industry support industry player and hence there could possibly be "dodgy" way of unlocking value for their vested interests...
(07-12-2014, 08:53 AM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]What's the net cash and properties worth in New Toyo? That will give us the bottom line....
Investment properties + cash = 17.8 cents.
But there are still liabilities ~ 8.9 cents.
Net cash/investment properties ~ 9 cents
From the current share price of 25 cents, there is still tremendous room to drop...
(07-12-2014, 08:53 AM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]What's the net cash and properties worth in New Toyo? That will give us the bottom line....
let's hope that the cash would not get whittled down in some silly new businesses which they might go into (e.g. tissue paper, etc.). New Toyo's domain expertise is in material/packaging primarily in the tobacco sector.
There is not much they can do with the money. Because of time value of money, the cash now is being whittled down day by day (by the rate of inflation), much to the angst of every minority shareholder. Basically the cash is just rotting away in the bank.
You can go and complain at AGM and your appeals will fall on deaf ears. Doing share buyback is one of the last things on the mind of the company. They would rather let the share price fall. Go to the AGM and u would see who is the real man behind the scene
(07-12-2014, 08:57 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]I think it doesn't really matter since apart from paying decent dividends, they have no intentions whatsoever to unlock them.
They even don't have any interests to realise the shell value of Shanghai Asia - just allowed it to be wind up... Its a sin industry support industry player and hence there could possibly be "dodgy" way of unlocking value for their vested interests...
(07-12-2014, 08:53 AM)desmondxyz Wrote: [ -> ]What's the net cash and properties worth in New Toyo? That will give us the bottom line....
Book value of equity is currently $201 mil. Markt cap is about $108 mil.
Cash and cash equivalent about $70 mil now. Even if the non-cash portion of equity is to take a 50% cut, equity will still be about 135 mil (70+ 0.5 x 130). Thats still about 30% higher than what mkt prices it today! Despite the challenges faced by the company, not sure if the deep discount is really warranted...
BaCONFTW Wrote:Book value of equity is currently $201 mil. Markt cap is about $108 mil. Cash and cash equivalent about $70 mil now. Even if the non-cash portion of equity is to take a 50% cut, equity will still be about 135 mil (70+ 0.5 x 130). Thats still about 30% higher than what mkt prices it today! Despite the challenges faced by the company, not sure if the deep discount is really warranted...
Have you seen how New Toyo whittled down its equity back in 2001 ~ 2003 during the tissue paper debacle . It lost more than 20 cents EPS !!!!
Assets such as printing machines will be useless if there is no accompanying contract to fulfill. The machinery will just get rusty and rot away ... Hence I only considered net cash and investment properties . 9 cents is what investors can really get back , provided the cash still remains ...
Guess we will have to wait and see what management has in store next year 😇
Sale of tienwah or the piece of land in Sydney could be possible surprises..
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Investment properties is recorded at historical value or current value?