ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

the EPS given are all fully diluted EPS and have taken into account the dilutive effect of rights issue.

Dividend as a portion of EPS have fallen.

(16-04-2012, 09:19 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]I think you have conveniently forgotten about the rights issue and its dilutive impact of it. Absolute dividends in total is a lot higher.

A point to keep in mind is that New Toyo being one of the dominant shareholders of SAH (34%) did not object to the asset sales in the first instance, even though it was pretty clear that in the opinions of many, the sales might not have been conducted in the best interests of shareholders. (IPO at 28 cents, NAV now only 19.6 cents). Perplexingly, SAH has continued to expand its aluminium rolling capacities just before the asset sales was announced in Oct 2010.

It is with all these backgrounds in mind that one should objectively evaluate New Toyo and SAH.

"SIN" business as New Toyo may be in, New Toyo has stated in its

AR 2009 as follows:
" While the tobacco industry is expected to go through more stringent regulatory controls, we expect that packaging will play a big part and we foresee more opportunities in this respect. The management will be proactive and ensure that opportunities are seized".

AR 2010:
"Our Core businesses are expected to continue to generate shareholder value. If the transaction announced by our associated company, SAH, on 25 Oct 2010 regarding the sale of its entire business and assets does proceed, this would regard in a significant cash payout to the company"

AR 2011:
"Looking ahead 2012, the economic conditions appear uncertain but the business sentiments in our industries and markets are still positive. We will continue to work with our key customers for sustainability and pursue new opportunities whenever possible for growth. Depending on the final cash proceeds available to the company from the sale of its business from our associated company, SAH, we will also review our strategic position."

A plain reading of Ar2011 statement seems to give the impression that New Toyo has already expected SAH to pay her a certain portion of the sales proceed. The question is how much, and when.

I guess the wait may not be too long because the money was supposed to be already on the way to SAH (from SWP).

I guess SAH's shareholders would have to ask company to provide a prompt update on whether the money from SWP has already reached SAH's bank account.

If this point can be confirmed, then the element of uncertainty will be greatly reduced.

SAH has stated as a matter of fact that it will pay up to 50% and retain the rest to look for business opportunities.

50% = 6.5 cents per New Toyo Share, if New Toyo intends to follow thru and pay up fully.


********
Well, if SAH is serious about looking for a viable new business to invest in, then the benchmark to be used should be the existing Aluminium rolling business whose performance has improved by leaps and bounds.

[SAH AR2011 - "The Aluminium Foil Rolling business lifted the performance of the group, with increased revenue and profit. Revenue was RMB 1165.5 mil, compared with 981,5mil in 2011, an increase of 19%. The full year net profit rose to RMB 125mil from 92mil, an increase of 36%.]

Objectively speaking, is SAH able to find a better line of business and in which sector ?

If the logical conclusion is a resounding NO, then it is only rightful and rational that money be returned promptly to its shareholders.

100% = 13 cents per New Toyo share.

This is my plain reading of it. No inducement to buy or sell.

(17-04-2012, 10:02 AM)Underdogger Wrote: [ -> ]AR 2011:
"Looking ahead 2012, the economic conditions appear uncertain but the business sentiments in our industries and markets are still positive. We will continue to work with our key customers for sustainability and pursue new opportunities whenever possible for growth. Depending on the final cash proceeds available to the company from the sale of its business from our associated company, SAH, we will also review our strategic position."

If the best case scenario pans out as described by potato lover , I.e. SAH returns all sales proceed to shareholders and New Toyo follows suit PLUS some like-minded company like Amcor values New Toyo at 6 times EBITDA PLUS investment properties & land holdings all fully rationalized ,

Yes you should be able to get a fat fat cash cow here.

The key word is IF . IF IF IF !!!!

(16-04-2012, 09:30 AM)rexace Wrote: [ -> ]SAH has all along said they will pay 50% and retain 50%,

why then were you so confident to say eventually they will pay the full 100% ?

think a lot of New Toyo shareholders are quite taken aback about Mr Yen paying himself first with $2.25mil, though it was dutifully explained by company in the circular that Mr Yen well-deserved the ex-gratia.

Given this climate of protracted delay from the finalization of the SAH's sale proceeds, shouldn't the company exercise more due consideration for shareholders' sentiments?

Whatever the case, everyone is crossing their fingers and waiting for the announcement from SAH that they will be paying out 50% of the sales proceed

It would probably be a well-rewarded long wait


********
Just to recap New Toyo's core earning (without SAH)

EPS - 3.2 cents or $14mil out of 440mil
EBITDA - $39mil.

Postuser mentioned that IF there is buyer and IF it thinks like Amcor, then EBITDA will be used.
IF EBITDA is 6 times, then valuation is 53 cents.

Historical EBITDA of acquired firms by Amcor ranged from a low of 4 to a high of even 6.7.
If 4, then 36 cents.
If 6.7, then 60 cents.

Only the acquirer (IF ANY) will be able to see the strategic value of New Toyo more clearly than anyone of us here...

More than 800 lots changed hands at 29 cents, probably something brewing ..simmering...

Hope SAH announces the payout soon, and this would definitely give a very strong boost to New Toyo

(18-04-2012, 02:14 PM)Underdogger Wrote: [ -> ]More than 800 lots changed hands at 29 cents, probably something brewing ..simmering...

The key is to reduce the element of UNCERTAINTY...
Once there is greater clarity from both SAH and New Toyo on what they want to do with the money, then the share price will "adjust" accordingly

(18-04-2012, 05:13 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Hope SAH announces the payout soon, and this would definitely give a very strong boost to New Toyo

(18-04-2012, 02:14 PM)Underdogger Wrote: [ -> ]More than 800 lots changed hands at 29 cents, probably something brewing ..simmering...

******************
Just to quote a real example.

Tye Soon declared about 5 cents of special dividend and the share price shot from 20 cents to about 30 cents, or 50% jump. P/E is about 17 now.

Not quite sure the impact on New Toyo when the special dividend from SAH is declared. New Toyo P/E is about 6.5 now.

I think there is a growing trend for long term investors to stock up good dividend-yield stocks.

That is why counters that continue to pay out consistent dividend have garnered quite a bit of attention. When regular dividend is coupled with special dividend, the strong interest is not unexpected.

(18-04-2012, 05:34 PM)potatolover Wrote: [ -> ]******************
Just to quote a real example.

Tye Soon declared about 5 cents of special dividend and the share price shot from 20 cents to about 30 cents, or 50% jump. P/E is about 17 now.

Not quite sure the impact on New Toyo when the special dividend from SAH is declared. New Toyo P/E is about 6.5 now.

those who thought that cigarette business is a sunset business given the tight regulatory climate should think twice before saying so..

Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) Reports 2012 First-Quarter Results

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philip-...2012-04-19

The growth is impressive, especially in the emerging markets..

Extract:-

2012 First-Quarter

In Asia, net revenues increased by 19.5% to $2.8 billion, including favorable currency of $74 million. Excluding the impact of currency and acquisitions, net revenues increased by 16.3%, reflecting the favorable impact of pricing of $144 million and favorable volume/mix of $235 million, principally in Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

Operating companies income surged by 28.7% to reach $1.4 billion. Excluding the favorable impact of currency of $53 million, operating companies income increased by 23.9%, reflecting strong growth in Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Korea and the Philippines. Adjusted operating companies income increased by 28.5% as shown in the table below and detailed on Schedule 7. Adjusted operating companies income, excluding currency, increased by 23.7%.