(23-04-2014, 11:31 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]At least there is some historical basis for what I said. If you go and take a good look at the data, u can see that the land price in Smithfield has declined in more than one year. this goes to say a lot about the value of land in that part of Sydney.
If there are more up to date data, everyone in this world will become property guru...haha
(23-04-2014, 02:58 PM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ] (23-04-2014, 12:16 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Industrial land price is trending DOWN in New South Wales, especially Smithfield (-ve 6%). This is supported by Table 7 at the following link.
http://www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au/your...and_values
Nothing to rejoice about! (19-04-2014, 07:26 AM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ] (18-04-2014, 11:09 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]about 30 min drive. So what about the new airport?
how much rental yield can be obtained if the 3.5 ha is used as a logistic base?
there is so much land in Australia....land is cheap...
ya, there is so much land in Australia... There is also so much land in China .... What is the land value in Shanghai compared with Xinjiang... There is so much land in Northern Territory and there is ONLY so much land in Sydney.... I am vested...
In this internet age, you are using historical data which are more than 16 months old. At that time, there was no Xi Jin Ping, Aussie PM was a lady .... try surfing the net for more up to date data lah...
Don't get angry lah... just google and you will get all up to date info.
Just read the latest Savills Research | Sydney Industrial for April 2014 (Please note it is Apr 2014)
http://pdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-res...1-2014.pdf
Savills said, ""Over next 12 months, Savills anticipates the Sydney industrial investment market to remain
extremely strong as the weight of funds from local REITs, coupled with overseas third party
capital seeking to grow their portfolios, has created a seller’s market. The lack of investment
grade stock available for purchase helped to tighten yields in 2013, which are expected to tighten further throughout 2014. ""
I am vested and I don't want to mislead others. You can imagine with the announcement of the new airport, what will Savills say in the next report??? btw, I suggest that you throw away your historical records into waste paper basket lest other be misled...
Not sure how did u sense that I am "angry"?? (hahaha)....
For all the bullishness expressed by vested investors like yourself, New Toyo is still languishing at low 30 cents...
This is just one report that u have quoted. There is always vested interest for brokerage researches to "push up" prices and it is quite naïve to believe wholeheartedly...
(23-04-2014, 11:47 PM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ] (23-04-2014, 11:31 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]At least there is some historical basis for what I said. If you go and take a good look at the data, u can see that the land price in Smithfield has declined in more than one year. this goes to say a lot about the value of land in that part of Sydney.
If there are more up to date data, everyone in this world will become property guru...haha
(23-04-2014, 02:58 PM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ] (23-04-2014, 12:16 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Industrial land price is trending DOWN in New South Wales, especially Smithfield (-ve 6%). This is supported by Table 7 at the following link.
http://www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au/your...and_values
Nothing to rejoice about! (19-04-2014, 07:26 AM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ]ya, there is so much land in Australia... There is also so much land in China .... What is the land value in Shanghai compared with Xinjiang... There is so much land in Northern Territory and there is ONLY so much land in Sydney.... I am vested...
In this internet age, you are using historical data which are more than 16 months old. At that time, there was no Xi Jin Ping, Aussie PM was a lady .... try surfing the net for more up to date data lah...
Don't get angry lah... just google and you will get all up to date info.
Just read the latest Savills Research | Sydney Industrial for April 2014 (Please note it is Apr 2014) http://pdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-res...1-2014.pdf
Savills said, ""Over next 12 months, Savills anticipates the Sydney industrial investment market to remain
extremely strong as the weight of funds from local REITs, coupled with overseas third party
capital seeking to grow their portfolios, has created a seller’s market. The lack of investment
grade stock available for purchase helped to tighten yields in 2013, which are expected to tighten further throughout 2014. ""
I am vested and I don't want to mislead others. You can imagine with the announcement of the new airport, what will Savills say in the next report??? btw, I suggest that you throw away your historical records into waste paper basket lest other be misled...
did anyone go for the AGM? can share any key updates pls? tks.
U are such a convinced follower of N Toyo, should have made time to listen to the horses first hand rather than to depend on others...
Should have done it better... than to carry on curious...
(25-04-2014, 03:33 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]did anyone go for the AGM? can share any key updates pls? tks.
I'm not as free as many others...
(25-04-2014, 04:15 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]U are such a convinced follower of N Toyo, should have made time to listen to the horses first hand rather than to depend on others...
Should have done it better... than to carry on curious...
(25-04-2014, 03:33 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]did anyone go for the AGM? can share any key updates pls? tks.
I often need to set priority to tasks, as time is always not enough. I do attend AGMs, if necessary.
(25-04-2014, 07:15 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not as free as many others...
(25-04-2014, 04:15 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]U are such a convinced follower of N Toyo, should have made time to listen to the horses first hand rather than to depend on others...
Should have done it better... than to carry on curious...
(25-04-2014, 03:33 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]did anyone go for the AGM? can share any key updates pls? tks.
Managed to check with a friend who attended the AGM. These are his key take aways
A. The company will continue to increase its market share in tobacco printing in Asia pacific as well as make new inroads into regions such as the MENA ( Middle East and North Africa ).
B. Will diversify into other non tobacco relating business if the risk return is assessed to be appropriate.
C. Will continue to focus on core business . Hence property development (eg empty land at Anzpac ) is not top priority at the moment.
D. No mention of special dividend whatsoever. Company will continue to keep its war chest of cash and be on the lookout for possible acquisition target.
Given the above pointers, it would seem quite UNLIKELY that the Yen Family will sell out their current stake anytime soon, at least for the next few years ahead. Investors who recently bought New Toyo on possible M&A activities might be greatly disappointed.
Between 1999 to 2002, at 23.35 cent of EPS value in LOSS were incurred from the tissue paper business.
based on the current EPS of 3.5 cents, it will take 6 to 7 years to make up for the loss in valuation back then.
Will New Toyo's new Chairman stand up to the test? It remains to be seen. The expiry of the supply contract with BAT is in Dec 2015, which is less than 2 years away.
****
Extract from AR2000
Prospect For 2001
Year 2001 will see the completion of the commissioning of new plants that the Group has invested since the IPO.
The emphasis for Year 2001 is to rapidly develop the markets in the respective plant locations to ensure the
Group returns to profitability. The tissue paper division will continue to build on its Pulppy® and An An® brands by offering superior
products to service the tissue paper needs of the Vietnamese community as well as for exports.
The initial gain in market share will provide the tissue paper division a good foundation to further our vision to
become the premier tissue product manufacturer and distributor in Vietnam.
New markets will continue to be explored for the lamination and non-carbon paper businesses where we will strive to improve operation efficiency.
The corrugation plants in Hanoi of Vietnam and Wuhu of China have commenced commercial production.
Turnover as well as profitability for the corrugation division is expected to improve further. In particular, the
superior machine capability of our plant in Ho Chi Minh city will offer quality second to none and affords us with
the competitive edge to achieve higher market share. Overall, Year 2001 will be a challenging year for the Group as the tissue paper mill enters into its first full year of operation, together with four relatively new corrugation plants in China and Vietnam. These new units will require dedicated management attention and resources. The growth in market share of our corrugation and tissue businesses have confirmed our strategic direction since IPO to expand beyond our lamination business.
With our committed manpower and resources, we believe that the performance of 2001 will be better than last year.
*****
On hindsight, 2001 turned out to be twice as worse as the results in 2000.
(26-04-2014, 05:49 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]Managed to check with a friend who attended the AGM. These are his key take aways
A. The company will continue to increase its market share in tobacco printing in Asia pacific as well as make new inroads into regions such as the MENA ( Middle East and North Africa ).
I heard this theme since the day they listed Shanghai Asia (since delisted after a lot of controversies) in 2004. Tobacco printing is their core business from day 1 so if they don't continue, then what...
B. Will diversify into other non tobacco relating business if the risk return is assessed to be appropriate.
SAH went into FMCG aluminium foil related business only to sell shortly after business stabilise citing competition in China. Independent director from Australia Cambridge even quit as a result of the sale of the business that eventually cashed up SAH after spending many years constructing the aluminium business from scatch... what other related non tobacco packaging business with appropriate risk/return can they be after?
C. Will continue to focus on core business . Hence property development (eg empty land at Anzpac ) is not top priority at the moment.
I think they are thinking very hard to harvest the value of non core assets but to who's interests?
D. No mention of special dividend whatsoever. Company will continue to keep its war chest of cash and be on the lookout for possible acquisition target.
Keep war chest of cash and be on lookout for opportunities in view of their track record is an excuse to buy time... got to try harder...
Given the above pointers, it would seem quite UNLIKELY that the Yen Family will sell out their current stake anytime soon, at least for the next few years ahead. Investors who recently bought New Toyo on possible M&A activities might be greatly disappointed.
I have already given up on this counter. Unless dividend yield goes above 7%, I won't bother looking at this counter given the above...
Vested
1000 shares
GG
If the shifting of one printing press (i.e. 50% of operations) from Australia to Vietnam can result in a few millions savings to the bottom line, the EPS will be lifted from the current 3.5 cents to about 4 cents (assuming $2mil savings). It is possible that dividend payout to increase, and hence dividend yield to reach 7% and beyond.
For now, we can probably look forward to the following:-
a. As mentioned above, potential savings of a few $mil to bottom-line with the shifting of operations to low-cost Vietnam, further boosting the economies of scales at Vietnam. There is a lot of space for further expansion at the factories in Vietnam. Just take a look at the no of hectares being catered for in Vietnam to get a rough sense.
b. BAT's inroads into new markets such as the Philippines and Myanmar will bring more printing volumes to the PCL (printed carton & label) segment.
c. On the specialty paper front, new customers in the Middle east are likely to bring in more businesses as well, boosting the recent recovery in this segment.
d. Although property redevelopment will take quite a while to materialize, it is comforting to note that these assets are recorded at book value on New Toyo's books. These hidden gems will shine one day while the core business continues to bring in the steady cash flow.
e. Asia Pacific is a burgeoning market for the Big Tobaccos (big population growth + rising income). With its war chest of $60mil of cash (and more to come due to strong cash flow from core business), New Toyo/Tien Wah will stand ready to assist with BAT and PMI in certain segments of their tobacco businesses when the opportunities arise (e.g. supply chain management, etc)
While those who bought during the IPO might be cursing and swearing, those who bought at the low 20 cents are sitting tightly on their profits and very good dividend yield annually (more than 7% easily) .