Updated breakdown value of New Toyo
1. 54% Stake in Tien Wah market price at 2.56 RM = 53.4 mil SD (cash if sold off in open stock market)
2. 34% stake of SAH = 34% x 160mil = 54.4 mil SD (cash)
3. New Toyo’s own investment properties = $27mil SD (market valuation as at Dec 2012)
4. New Toyo's own specialty paper business = $5mil net profit per annum (Say 5 cents valuation)
5. New Toyo’s 49% stake in MEIL – RM $15mil projected for FY12. Assuming P/E of 7.4, we will get valuation of 10 cents
45.6 cents in all .
Item 1 to 3 = 30.5 cents , approximate current market value of New Toyo.
Has Mr Market conveniently forgotten about valuation for item 4 and 5 of at least 15 cents?
As far as valuation is concerned, New Toyo seems to be at least 50% undervalued by Mr Market...
(And the above has conservatively excluded all the redevelopment potential of land holdings by Tien Wah.)
New Toyo's own specialty paper segment has been on a clear downtrend in the last 3 years!
Specialty paper is a very competitive segment with LOW PROFIT MARGIN
Profit (before tax)
2010 - $7.6m
2011 - $5.6m
2012 - $5.3m
Without Tien Wah, New Toyo is nothing...in other words,if anything untoward were to happen to Tien Wah, New Toyo will be dealt a serious blow. In addition, Tien Wah seems to be over-reliant on a single client (i.e. BAT)..
MEIL is just a trading post with no real operations. Hence, it should not be assigned much valuation. After all, it is not doing real printing and packaging work!
when people got "sucked in", it is good time to sell
Stockerman
I reckon you have sold all your shares ?
(15-05-2013, 11:55 AM)Stockerman Wrote: [ -> ]when people got "sucked in", it is good time to sell
Anything beyond the current NAV of 36 cents is NOT sustainable!
Wait for 36 cents and u will see tons of sellers ...
(15-05-2013, 11:58 AM)gonggong Wrote: [ -> ]Stockerman
I reckon you have sold all your shares ?
(15-05-2013, 11:55 AM)Stockerman Wrote: [ -> ]when people got "sucked in", it is good time to sell
dividend yield of about 4% ..i think these buyers had probably bought to hedge against the inflation..nice deal i would say
Those 700 lots or so buyers for today MUST have been greatly disappointed by the results.
Company has already said during AGM that they need to balance need for capex with that for special dividend...
just read 1q result today..steady...
(15-05-2013, 10:31 PM)pianist Wrote: [ -> ]just read 1q result today..steady...
Overall, i wouldn't be 'greatly' disappointed with the results. Numbers seem pretty stable. Also, some statements made by the company are worth an interesting look:
The Group expects to receive its share of the cash distribution from SAH, approved in the latter's Extraordinary General Meeting on 30 April 2013.
The Specialty Papers business has participated in a tender for a long term supply agreement with our major customer and
we are confident that we would be successful in securing the contract.
The economic outlook continues to be uncertain. However we remain
cautiously optimistic regarding the Group's performance as the industry that we are in remains resilient.
(15-05-2013, 11:21 PM)investright Wrote: [ -> ] (15-05-2013, 10:31 PM)pianist Wrote: [ -> ]just read 1q result today..steady...
Overall, i wouldn't be 'greatly' disappointed with the results. Numbers seem pretty stable. Also, some statements made by the company are worth an interesting look:
The Group expects to receive its share of the cash distribution from SAH, approved in the latter's Extraordinary General Meeting on 30 April 2013.
The Specialty Papers business has participated in a tender for a long term supply agreement with our major customer and we are confident that we would be successful in securing the contract.
The economic outlook continues to be uncertain. However we remain cautiously optimistic regarding the Group's performance as the industry that we are in remains resilient.
I agree. But be wary of certain forummers who kept talking down the stock but never sell his holding of the shares. BEWARE.