The key realization is really how property development can add value to NAV if the company has the intention to do it, and has the expertise to do. For New Toyo, neither does it have the expertise nor the intention to do it.
Although New Toyo/Tien Wah might have a few pieces of "under-valued" assets scattered here and there, I realized that these would take many years before their value would be realized if any. There is a possibility that their value might never be realized at all, given that there is NO PLAN in the foreseeable future to go into property redevelopment.
This view was further reinforced/confirmed thru interactions with the management during the last 2 AGMs. The key focus is to serve BAT and not property redevelopment.
Hence, the book NAV might continue to remain as book NAV and New Toyo might continue to remain under-appreciated by Mr Market.
(21-07-2014, 10:59 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Beside the riot in Vietnam what else in your post has changed in past 2 months? Certainly not the NAV, excluding these 2 months PnL 
IMHO we need to be objective on what has changed rather than have a selection bias.
Curiosparty
You are now saying that:
“The key realization is really how property development can add value to NAV if the company has the intention to do it, and has the expertise to do. For New Toyo, neither does it have the expertise nor the intention to do it.
Although New Toyo/Tien Wah might have a few pieces of "under-valued" assets scattered here and there, I realized that these would take many years before their value would be realized if any. There is a possibility that their value might never be realized at all, given that there is NO PLAN for the foreseeable future to go into property redevelopment.
This view was further reinforced/confirmed thru interactions with the management during the last 2 AGMs. The key focus is to serve BAT and not property redevelopment.”
This cannot be a recent realisation as management has already told you during the last 2 AGMs that it has no plan for property redevelopment.
You have also said New Toyo not buying back shares is another reason for you to change your mind recently. New Toyo is not open to buyback and it made this clear during many AGMs (much to my disappointment). This again cannot be a factor for you to turn negative on new Toyo.
The one thing I truly learnt about New Toyo is that honestly there is no way for u to track its performance using information readily available from the market. Do u know how much does one printer print each day? The revenue or cost from one printer? Do u know how to derive the COGs for Tien Wah and New Toyo?
E.g. BAT has been doing well in the Asia Pacific markets but this has not translated to higher revenue/profits for Tien Wah or New Toyo. In fact, Tien Wah kept repeating in the last few quarters that they were facing challenges in almost all of the markets their clients are operating in due to regulations against tobacco.
The other thing is the country risk. New Toyo is consolidating its operations in Vietnam at a time when the local condition is very unstable. For this, if u are interested, u can easily call up the CFO and check with her the "extent of disruption" from the recent riots on operations, and then make an objective assessment of how much revenue/profit would be impacted for the upcoming 2Q.
My layman assessment is that there should be some fallout from the riots on New Toyo operations in Vietnam.
(22-07-2014, 08:19 AM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Curiosparty
You are now saying that:
“The key realization is really how property development can add value to NAV if the company has the intention to do it, and has the expertise to do. For New Toyo, neither does it have the expertise nor the intention to do it.
Although New Toyo/Tien Wah might have a few pieces of "under-valued" assets scattered here and there, I realized that these would take many years before their value would be realized if any. There is a possibility that their value might never be realized at all, given that there is NO PLAN for the foreseeable future to go into property redevelopment.
This view was further reinforced/confirmed thru interactions with the management during the last 2 AGMs. The key focus is to serve BAT and not property redevelopment.”
This cannot be a recent realisation as management has already told you during the last 2 AGMs that it has no plan for property redevelopment.
You have also said New Toyo not buying back shares is another reason for you to change your mind recently. New Toyo is not open to buyback and it made this clear during many AGMs (much to my disappointment). This again cannot be a factor for you to turn negative on new Toyo.
curiousparty, frankly i am getting confused by your posts here. i think i am not alone.
thanks young investor for speaking out and adding more value to the discussion.on this counter.
Well, I think the problem with this line of reasoning is that you can say it about any company.
Does anyone really know how many curry puffs Old Chang Kee sells a day? Or the exact rental costs per each store?
Investing is about making an informed choice with readily available information. My own opinion is that there's a diminishing effect to knowing every aspect of a company. Analysis paralysis is the enemy of the investor.
All you have is the track record of the company over 10 years to make an assessment.
Cheers,
theasiareport.com
(22-07-2014, 08:25 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]The one thing I truly learnt about New Toyo is that honestly there is no way for u to track its performance using information readily available from the market. Do u know how much does one printer print each day? The revenue or cost from one printer? Do u know how to derive the COGs for Tien Wah and New Toyo?
yes, that was how the tax authority found out that some famous curry puff maker was severely underreporting his income. They did "field audits", and caught the guy. think the chap was fined a few mil dollars for tax evasion.
The problem with New Toyo is that u cannot even have a rough sense what the printing volume was from quarter to quarter, and how much was the drop due to the regulations such as plain packaging, excise tax increase, etc.
(22-07-2014, 11:14 AM)theasiareport Wrote: [ -> ]Well, I think the problem with this line of reasoning is that you can say it about any company.
Does anyone really know how many curry puffs Old Chang Kee sells a day? Or the exact rental costs per each store?
Investing is about making an informed choice with readily available information. My own opinion is that there's a diminishing effect to knowing every aspect of a company. Analysis paralysis is the enemy of the investor.
All you have is the track record of the company over 10 years to make an assessment.
Cheers,
theasiareport.com
(22-07-2014, 08:25 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: [ -> ]The one thing I truly learnt about New Toyo is that honestly there is no way for u to track its performance using information readily available from the market. Do u know how much does one printer print each day? The revenue or cost from one printer? Do u know how to derive the COGs for Tien Wah and New Toyo?
You have stated that “The one thing I truly learnt about New Toyo is that honestly there is no way for u to track its performance using information readily available from the market. Do u know how much does one printer print each day? The revenue or cost from one printer? Do u know how to derive the COGs for Tien Wah and New Toyo?”
Surely, you must have known long ago that operating data of New Toyo are not available from the market, and yet this did not affect you when you posted optimistically on 5 Jul.
You must also be aware long ago that New Toyo’s clients always face the regulatory risks when governments tighten rules to discourage smoking.
These cannot be the factors that caused you to turn bearish in a space of two months.
As for country risk, New Toyo has been operating in Vietnam for many years. Companies venturing overseas face such risk and this is not new.
(21-07-2014, 10:59 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Beside the riot in Vietnam what else in your post has changed in past 2 months? Certainly not the NAV, excluding these 2 months PnL
IMHO we need to be objective on what has changed rather than have a selection bias.
Agreed.
Looking at the concentration and number of elaborate posts on this stock and a few other specific counters, I am not sure of his motives, but it seems like CuriousParty just seems to be just interested in panning this stock and spruiking CES.
So long as New Toyo continues to be generous with dividends and works with BAT, I am pretty much happy with the cashflow into the company. Much like UMS/AMAT relationship NT/BAT relationship could be very good for shareholders in the long run. Stock is still at a discount to NAV and net cash so there is still room for upside, at least for the next couple years.
-vested-
i do hope the moderators are watching his posts and will do the necessary to make the forum a better place for everyone to share information with good intentions.
I never have bad intentions . I qualified each statement I made. I never insulted anyone.
I am laying everyone the information from a shareholder point of view.
ianphoon Wrote:i do hope the moderators are watching his posts and will do the necessary to make the forum a better place for everyone to share information with good intentions.