(14-05-2015, 01:35 PM)heifien91 Wrote: [ -> ] (14-05-2015, 09:17 AM)Life is a game Wrote: [ -> ]My opinion is now not a good time to accumulate penguin. Until we can see the next quarter result and estimate the whole year earnings to see if ROE has deteriorate and calculate the new intrinsic value.
I think it is a little unfair that one actually bases the intrinsic value of the company on each quarterly results. While I do understand that intrinsic value of the company does fluctuate over time, however, it is only over a long period of time. From quarter to quarter the intrinsic value of the company does not fluctuate that drastically.
I think you misunderstood. I was saying to look at 2nd quarter result then make a fair assumption on the entire year earnings to derive the new intrinsic value.
Penguin is able to report a strong q2 external revenue of 50m at least. From q1 revenue is about 48.8mil (13.3m was internal revenue) and there was a 5 m increase in work in progress. Hence penguin, is very able to clock 50m external revenue if it wants. My thinking is that penguin mgmt is trying to smooth out the revenue recognition for some reason I do not know.
Secondly, the recent rise in oil price may see a slight increase in order book which will likely to be filled in q4 of this fy. Penguin is definitely able to book 150m of revenue across the next 3 quarters. However the worry is all orders revenue will be recognised this fy and sobering sentiments may lead to a lack of order book on fy 16. At this stage, penguin may then have to expand its own fleet to utilise yard capacity.
17/5/2015: Tried to project how much revenue Penguin needs to maintain a 3-4 cents EPS based on its lower gross margins (28%), ignoring forex loss/gains and higher headcount expense. Penguin will need to report approx 42-44M of external revenue in each of the next 3 quarters. This is achievable in the short run. However, to repeat this feat of 42-44M per quarter in the next financial year, may be difficult given the weak sentiments in o&g. Think this can only be done if oil is at $80/barrel. Seems that shipbuilding is the lower margin segment and therefore, it will be important for chartering segment to turn around if we want to see GPM of 40% again
Look at the current liabilities - Due to customers for contracts work-in-progress. Might offer a clue to building orders. It might also explain why inventories are accumulating and build on debts. Extend back a few quarters and you get a feel what 2Q might be.....
not vested
(15-05-2015, 10:06 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]Penguin is able to report a strong q2 external revenue of 50m at least. From q1 revenue is about 48.8mil (13.3m was internal revenue) and there was a 5 m increase in work in progress. Hence penguin, is very able to clock 50m external revenue if it wants. My thinking is that penguin mgmt is trying to smooth out the revenue recognition for some reason I do not know.
Secondly, the recent rise in oil price may see a slight increase in order book which will likely to be filled in q4 of this fy. Penguin is definitely able to book 150m of revenue across the next 3 quarters. However the worry is a lack of order book on fy 16. At this stage, penguin may then have to expand its own fleet to utilise yard capacity
Seems to be continuous weakness in the stock. Will it eventually hit 52wk low?
It seems that Penguin has added another model, Flex-40SLC, to the list of offshore charters recently.
http://www.penguin.com.sg/vessel-specs/
One of the additional feature is the FLEX FIGHTER Options.
My friend's family business is in close proximity where offshore work are mostly done. He told me, he felt the industry is getting busier nowadays, almost back to olden days.... Anyone with friends, perhaps, you can ask around and verify?
Hi dydx, good news that penguin has delivered the 100th vessel. however, with it being named as "pelican", my spirits are dampened given what they had done in q1 and the fear of it repeating.
If any1 is to ask , If penguin does another round of Ppe expansion w/o vessels sale or revenue and profit being the same as last quarters. It's a reduce exposure to me. My advanced reply to any buddy who is tempted to ask again
(21-07-2015, 07:05 PM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]Hi dydx, good news that penguin has delivered the 100th vessel. however, with it being named as "pelican", my spirits are dampened given what they had done in q1 and the fear of it repeating.
If any1 is to ask , If penguin does another round of Ppe expansion w/o vessels sale or revenue and profit being the same as last quarters. It's a reduce exposure to me. My advanced reply to any buddy who is tempted to ask again
Quarterly review of portfolio, is necessary, IMO. To determine the health of a company fundamentals, by only two quarters of financial report, is premature to me.
(vested)
There is some selling down for no particular reasons.
My guess is that some people already had a 'glimpse' on the 2Q result.
When the 2Q result is out we will know if it is true.
Not vested