(13-04-2015, 08:23 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: [ -> ] (13-04-2015, 07:31 PM)bear Wrote: [ -> ](Note that I am not discussing about any TA stuff)
I was wondering if the rise in Penguin's price today a result of the increase in confidence after Friday's AR release or in response to this news?
IMHO, it is due to oil price sentiment
Yes. This is aligned with other O&G-related stock price rally today, if you noticed.
Hi kelvesy
Thanks for the information
Yes it is indeed true that Penguin is among one of the least popular stocks in the market due to the weak oil and gas outlook.But the past few quarters results and announcement by Penguin has definitely instill a sense of confidence for me.
I always try to note the price movement of Penguin after every announcements not as a basis to make my investment decision but to have an idea what Mr Market feels about it.
For example based on the full results release of AR2014 to most of the valuebuddies it's a sign of good things to come but Mr Market's behaviour in the form of Penguin's decline below $0.200 seems to warn us that 'hey it's sign of Penguin weakening performance for the next one year!I'm out of this!'.Of course I am not implying that we are definitely right while Mr Market is wrong at this point in time(It is also highly likely that we valuebuddies in this thread have a strong positive bias with regards to the outlook)In the sense I am interested in what type of information is needed for Mr Market to be convinced of Penguin's potential.I feel it's highly likely Penguin is going to be undervalued even with another year of record revenue for the next 1-2 years at least(hope I am wrong!)
Another thing is that it's kind of creepy this announcement is released after our discussion on the past contract cancellations during the weekend!Are you reading this Mr James
(Vested)
(13-04-2015, 08:37 PM)bear Wrote: [ -> ]Another thing is that it's kind of creepy this announcement is released after our discussion on the past contract cancellations during the weekend!Are you reading this Mr James
(Vested)
The settlement is on 13 Apr 2015, thus the announcement. I doubt it is intentionally aligned with our discussion
But I do feel, the IR officer of the company, is likely reading this thread
(13-04-2015, 10:05 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-04-2015, 08:37 PM)bear Wrote: [ -> ]Another thing is that it's kind of creepy this announcement is released after our discussion on the past contract cancellations during the weekend!Are you reading this Mr James
(Vested)
The settlement is on 13 Apr 2015, thus the announcement. I doubt it is intentionally aligned with our discussion
But I do feel, the IR officer of the company, is likely reading this thread
I am disappointed that the management did not address the loss of million of dollars in the mishandling of forex. For the size of Penguin, the loss is substantial. What were the causes? Have they learnt their lesson? Hope the BOD had prepared their response to this issue which will be raised in the coming agm.
Basically, I am not impressed with the statement of the chairman/CEO. It did not carry meaningful information.
(13-04-2015, 11:23 PM)xlandjy Wrote: [ -> ] (13-04-2015, 10:05 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (13-04-2015, 08:37 PM)bear Wrote: [ -> ]Another thing is that it's kind of creepy this announcement is released after our discussion on the past contract cancellations during the weekend!Are you reading this Mr James
(Vested)
The settlement is on 13 Apr 2015, thus the announcement. I doubt it is intentionally aligned with our discussion
But I do feel, the IR officer of the company, is likely reading this thread
I am disappointed that the management did not address the loss of million of dollars in the mishandling of forex. For the size of Penguin, the loss is substantial. What were the causes? Have they learnt their lesson? Hope the BOD had prepared their response to this issue which will be raised in the coming agm.
Basically, I am not impressed with the statement of the chairman/CEO. It did not carry meaningful information.
With the detail info given in the AR on the hedging operation, I wonder what further can the management add on the matter, on top of those available in AR
It is unique to combine both CEO and Chairman message. Which company did that before? None as far as my memory serves me. I prefer separate messages, because Chairman and CEO should provide messages in a slightly different perspectives, by their respective roles
(vested)
This counter is slowly edging up...
Actually I find that some buddies has overrated on Penguin, though with solid fundamentals, it is still in a cyclical business. My main concerns is about its sustainability, knowing that there isn't much history about the Flexs and the fact that Penguin is building too fast where demands are unknown to us. And what puzzled me is that why James and Jeffrey did not increase their stake if they are probably certain that Penguin can do better in 2015? James is paid more than a million a year, and he has just 2M shares of Penguin?
I am vested and hope some one can convinced me to buy more.
(15-04-2015, 11:34 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Actually I find that some buddies has overrated on Penguin, though with solid fundamentals, it is still in a cyclical business. My main concerns is about its sustainability, knowing that there isn't much history about the Flexs and the fact that Penguin is building too fast where demands are unknown to us. And what puzzled me is that why James and Jeffrey did not increase their stake if they are probably certain that Penguin can do better in 2015? James is paid more than a million a year, and he has just 2M shares of Penguin?
I am vested and hope some one can convinced me to buy more.
I actually like posts like yours, as well as BlueKelah's (who has been splashing cold water on the optimism of vested Penguin buddies).
I do sense that the bias-ness in this thread can be borderline excessive. Disclaimer: I am very biased towards this counter too.
Hence, sometimes, when I read posts like yours and BlueKelah's, I get brought down a little more to Earth and start to reinforce my beliefs in this counter through more 'homework'. At this point, would also like to credit some buddies here for sharing their 'homework'.
EDIT: To try to answer a little of your ques: Penguin performed very well in FY14 but we didn't see the management increasing much of their stake or cashing out after it reached a high of around 28cents. So, two sides of a coin here...
Good luck to all believers in this bird.
(15-04-2015, 11:34 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]My main concerns is about its sustainability, knowing that there isn't much history about the Flexs and the fact that Penguin is building too fast where demands are unknown to us.
You're right. Another thing to monitor is the inventory growth compared to revenue growth. For FY2014, Revenue is up 49% while inventories is up 111%. Although, it says Inventories refers mainly to construction-in-progress, which I think is a good thing. Let's see how this progresses now that they have expanded their production. Hopefully, more growth in revenue as well.