Yes i think many of the forum members have vested in this. Maybe too heavy vested than prudently. The expectation of the company might be too high. Last year 1Q result was over $7m. If you look at past few quarterly results esp 4Q then this coming 1st quarter might be hard to match last year. Not impossible but not EASY. You might see a drastic reaction if expectations are not match. If company could meet expectations for 1Q and the next few quarters then one should take a serious look at this company.
not vested
(14-04-2015, 07:01 PM)Bubbachuck Wrote: [ -> ]Nice write up by Joseph Yeo in nextinsight. I think sooner or later we will see analyst coverage already. Hopefully most of us have vested enough already on Penguin.
http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...rnational-
I would like to view this in a different perspective rather than acknowledging that buddies are overrating penguins. Though it is crucial to access quarterly reports but I prefer not to compare across quarters but view in relative terms for its profitability and the ability of the management to produce results. A deniable hard truth is that people tend to form expectations/estimates/ forecast for a company quarterly results and this is no different for penguins. when expectation fall short of target for a quarter, the market will definitely see some correction. But whether the company can continue to deliver good results in the coming years, it's a separate issue compared to just a quarter result falling short of expectation. Expectation can be high and if it's reasonable like what the management believe that they are able to deliver in the AR, I will believe they can else they wouldn't indicate these intention in their AR. We don't need every quarter to have impressive performance but a steady and growing results will be a good gauge whether penguins is a value or just a normal ordinary company.
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(15-04-2015, 09:06 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote: [ -> ] (15-04-2015, 11:34 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Actually I find that some buddies has overrated on Penguin, though with solid fundamentals, it is still in a cyclical business. My main concerns is about its sustainability, knowing that there isn't much history about the Flexs and the fact that Penguin is building too fast where demands are unknown to us. And what puzzled me is that why James and Jeffrey did not increase their stake if they are probably certain that Penguin can do better in 2015? James is paid more than a million a year, and he has just 2M shares of Penguin?
I am vested and hope some one can convinced me to buy more.
I actually like posts like yours, as well as BlueKelah's (who has been splashing cold water on the optimism of vested Penguin buddies).
I do sense that the bias-ness in this thread can be borderline excessive. Disclaimer: I am very biased towards this counter too.
Hence, sometimes, when I read posts like yours and BlueKelah's, I get brought down a little more to Earth and start to reinforce my beliefs in this counter through more 'homework'. At this point, would also like to credit some buddies here for sharing their 'homework'.
EDIT: To try to answer a little of your ques: Penguin performed very well in FY14 but we didn't see the management increasing much of their stake or cashing out after it reached a high of around 28cents. So, two sides of a coin here...
Good luck to all believers in this bird.
Time to step back, cool down, and review, before moving forward.
I am probably one of those are very biased toward this counter. I am glad we do see the value of "Mr. Doom" and "Devil Advocate" in our VB forum. They might not be right, but they always force you to re-affirm the conviction. At time, you might be awaken from mistakes.
(vested, and will refrain from posting here for a while)
(16-04-2015, 09:25 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Time to step back, cool down, and review, before moving forward.
I am probably one of those are very biased toward this counter. I am glad we do see the value of "Mr. Doom" and "Devil Advocate" in our VB forum. They might not be right, but they always force you to re-affirm the conviction. At time, you might be awaken from mistakes.
(vested, and will refrain from posting here for a while)
Yes... anything can happen. They might suddenly win a large contract of orders, their boats might suddenly explode for no reason and everyone cancel their orders... I'm also vested in this counter.
Just hoping for the best!
Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.
I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?
They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?
And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?
Something very wrong here!!!
Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.
(16-04-2015, 10:12 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.
I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?
They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?
And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?
Something very wrong here!!!
Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.
The reasons for my interest in this counter are:
1. decent dividend of 1cts which gives a yield of 4.5% based on price of 22cts.
2. a belief that the company today is different from the company of yesteryears. It shown a gradual n dramatic improvement in both top n bottom in the last 6-8 quarters. It seems that they have found a certain "niche" in the market.
3. it has no debt
4. it has cash horde of S$37 mil
5. it is the cheapest of all the marine n shipping stocks listed in the Singapore exchange w a p/e of 4.8x. This Marine n Shipping listing is found in ShareInvestor.
Whether the analysis will bear out remains to be seen. There maybe/maybe not, temporary "blips" in it's quarterly performance but should the analysis be correct, the company should be worth a lot more than what it is today.
I am in it for the long term. in the meantime i will be content with the 4.5% dividend yield.
Note: pls note that my analysis may or may not be correct. And also i invest based on above "story line". Should the story line change then my interest will change.
All the best to all in this forum!
Hi, if I may give my 2-cents worth of opinion, based on my less than 2 years of full-time investing experience, if we pick what we consider to be a gem (like Penguin to me), tendency is that it has not much of an extensive track record to speak of, so admittedly by Ben Graham's reckoning the risks are high. But if we pick the "right horse" at its infancy (and that's a very big "if"), market correction up to its deserved price eventually, is likely to be higher than one that has a long track record. When I bought into ISOTeam at 32.5 cents (looked so boring then!), I couldn't for the life of me tell you at that time that one day, I'd be sitting on a 2-bagger for this one. I actually thought Ying Li (with the Singaporean CEO) had better chances, until I learned the meaning of S-chips, and so I'm still humbly learning! (vested)
It is understandable for investors to have different views and doubts on the prospects of Penguin's crewboat business, especially since the company's exceptionally strong and positive financial evolution in last FY14 was unprecedented, and after the recent sharp fall in oil prices. I should add however that the latest FY14 AR have good answers from Penguin's management and BOD on most of the doubts. Investors just have to take the pain to read and review the AR carefully.
I believe we have a proven and exceptionally competent management team in Penguin headed by CEO James Tham, who has an interesting career background and unique experiences which have contributed to the branding, product development, and international marketing supporting the takeoff and and fast-improving profitability of Penguin's crewboat business. To top it up, we have in Penguin a very competent Chairman and BOD who together have guided the business development and corporate governance of the company, which is now in most key aspects an investment-grade business enterprise.
(16-04-2015, 11:18 AM)sykn Wrote: [ -> ]Hi, if I may give my 2-cents worth of opinion, based on my less than 2 years of full-time investing experience, if we pick what we consider to be a gem (like Penguin to me), tendency is that it has not much of an extensive track record to speak of, so admittedly by Ben Graham's reckoning the risks are high. But if we pick the "right horse" at its infancy (and that's a very big "if"), market correction up to its deserved price eventually, is likely to be higher than one that has a long track record. When I bought into ISOTeam at 32.5 cents (looked so boring then!), I couldn't for the life of me tell you at that time that one day, I'd be sitting on a 2-bagger for this one. I actually thought Ying Li (with the Singaporean CEO) had better chances, until I learned the meaning of S-chips, and so I'm still humbly learning! (vested)
Picking "right horse" at its infancy sounds like speculating to me.
(16-04-2015, 10:12 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.
I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?
They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?
And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?
Something very wrong here!!!
Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.
Welcome to the Penguin club.