ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

(16-04-2015, 10:12 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.

I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?

They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?

And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?

Something very wrong here!!!

Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.

I am a bit puzzled by what you have written. If you feel something is wrong and maybe you are correct, why not divest your interest and move to others? Since you are still vested, I gather you may find this stock undervalue or have some potential, right? Since agm is coming soon, you can always ask the BOD or CEO on those concerns that you have. Guessing here n there will not make your analysis any better. Go for value as your nickname implies. It does not really matter if any analyst covers this stock or not.

I guess many investors and speculators just want somebody to give them assurance that Penguin is the right company to invest. An undervalued company may not attract analysts coverage and that is often one of reasons why a company remains undervalued. No point arguing who is right or wrong.

If everyone agrees that Penguin is undervalued, it will not be undervalued anymore.

There is still an element of chance and uncertainty in stock investment. That is why a shrewd investor will need to price in and manage the "what if I am wrong?' risk.

One needs to have conviction in a stock to make money. When the price drops, it will allow the investor to pick up more shares at an even better price. Nonetheless, position sizing is also important because when the size is too big, one may freak out when the price falls and/or negative views and rumors emerge.

When an investor is overly optimistic to buy too much from the beginning at a particular price, he/she will have more difficulty to average down as the he/she would either run out of financial resource or that the position size would become too big for him/her to feel comfortable.

Only time will tell if we are right or wrong but at least with the information on hand, we could assess the probability of being wright or wrong. I will continue to slowly accumulate Penguin at certain price or below. Being having the capacity to continue to accumulate Penguin makes me feel comfortable (that is me). If the price runs away, so be it; nevermind that I have not accumulated enough as there are still many other counters that I can accumulate.

(16-04-2015, 11:15 AM)josephyeo Wrote: [ -> ]

(16-04-2015, 10:12 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.

I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?

They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?

And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?

Something very wrong here!!!

Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.

The reasons for my interest in this counter are:

1. decent dividend of 1cts which gives a yield of 4.5% based on price of 22cts.
2. a belief that the company today is different from the company of yesteryears. It shown a gradual n dramatic improvement in both top n bottom in the last 6-8 quarters. It seems that they have found a certain "niche" in the market.
3. it has no debt
4. it has cash horde of S$37 mil
5. it is the cheapest of all the marine n shipping stocks listed in the Singapore exchange w a p/e of 4.8x. This Marine n Shipping listing is found in ShareInvestor.

Whether the analysis will bear out remains to be seen. There maybe/maybe not, temporary "blips" in it's quarterly performance but should the analysis be correct, the company should be worth a lot more than what it is today.

I am in it for the long term. in the meantime i will be content with the 4.5% dividend yield.

Note: pls note that my analysis may or may not be correct. And also i invest based on above "story line". Should the story line change then my interest will change.

All the best to all in this forum!

Welcome here josephyeo

Would not base to much on the yield. Div history is spotty at best so talking about current div yield as a reason to invest doesn't really hold much strength.

Global shipping/shipbuilding has been booming past couple years with orders peaking end of 2013 and downtrend to now, results of this would reflect in 2014/2015 for most bigger shipbuilders in higher profits. Penguin must be a beneficiary of this uptrend in 2013 as well and has done well to capitalize on it by taking more orders and increasing production capacity. What will happen to orders later this year or next year?

Being debt free and having cash (hardly a "HORDE", its only about 26% of market cap. Look at AEH with netcash/market cap 90%+, that's a real horde.) are of course a big plus points, but investing in a small caps one would need or even expect such plus points to feel comfortable putting cash in them.

P/E dun get me started. With both values being market and business dependent and for small companies fluctuating a lot, talk about moat, niche, etc, in the end its still a small business. When sector cycles down, see how high the PE can go. I wouldn't even use it to decide on an investment.

Everyone here has their own definition of value, but so far most of the positive stuff posted here on the fundamentals sound more like growth investing.

My posts here previously was not to "splash cold water" but just to mention some of the risks associated buying in at 20c+ levels. Most buddies have bought in at much lower prices and just talk up the share in very "smug" or "feel good" kind of ways which is not helpful to newcomer.

as mentioned before, do feel that Penguin has good potential but by my books is pretty much fairly valued now but buyers should keep in mind bigger picture of a lacklustre shipbuilding sector at least for next couple quarters.

from the latest quarterly :
Sobering sentiments in the offshore oil and gas industry are expected to temper demand for the Group's crewboats and Fast Supply Intervention Vessels in sales and charters. However, demand for security
vessels (Flex Fighter) and passenger ferries (Flex Ferry), as well as ship repair services, is expected to be less affected.

but who knows, if oil makes a rebound back to $100 share price could easily hit pre GFC highs of above 30c, let's "speculate" shall we?

Wow, seems like a lot of newbies are being lured to this counter because of its popularity in the forum?

If I have no choice but to admit, I am actually speculating on Penguin and that's why I am vested. I trust the valuable insights by dydx, CityFarmer and CY09 and I am betting that sooner or later analysts would give coverage which may lift the share price higher. I am hoping for oil price recovery which may create a general perception that Penguin will do better.

Having said this, I still felt something very wrong as what I have quoted above. If I am speculating, it cost me a little sums of money, I might not really care if I were to lose 10% or 20% of it because I am speculating. If someone can correct my "very wrong" comment, then I may turn my speculating into value investing.

(16-04-2015, 12:44 PM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, seems like a lot of newbies are being lured to this counter because of its popularity in the forum?

If I have no choice but to admit, I am actually speculating on Penguin and that's why I am vested. I trust the valuable insights by dydx, CityFarmer and CY09 and I am betting that sooner or later analysts would give coverage which may lift the share price higher. I am hoping for oil price recovery which may create a general perception that Penguin will do better.

Having said this, I still felt something very wrong as what I have quoted above. If I am speculating, it cost me a little sums of money, I might not really care if I were to lose 10% or 20% of it because I am speculating. If someone can correct my "very wrong" comment, then I may turn my speculating into value investing.

Does looks like lotsa of newcomer to this forum recently as you can see from their post counts.

Your experience is probably right, with small caps, management behaviour is pretty predicatable. When company is doing well, boss will buy-in or company will share buy back to reward the hardworking bosses. after all it is easy money with insider info and buy-in can be done months ahead once a surge of orders come in without being classed as "insider buying" and once some analyst coverage come in its easy to sell some to get back profits and some capital.

BlueKelah, splashing cold water can have a good effect

If not for the devil's advocates here, I may have a unreasonable % of holding in this counter or I may have continued to stock-up more at prices at higher than this.

Two-way street is better than an one-way one where everyone just talks up the counter.

Hi BlueKelah,

Thank you for your useful post.
It's important for me as a newbie to have a more balance view of Penguin.

Almost all of the previous posts by everybody regarding Penguin is singing praises, sweet talk etc.
I feel something very wrong but do not know what is it, but I can smell some kind of snake oil selling in it.

Cheers !

(16-04-2015, 12:24 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]

(16-04-2015, 11:15 AM)josephyeo Wrote: [ -> ]

(16-04-2015, 10:12 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: [ -> ]Well I am not trying to invite flaming, but I think some of the buddies here have been "brain-washed" with just 1 outstanding year of results. I remembered Mr. Graham ever mentioned to focus to longer term perspective, the longer the better, and I think Mr. Graham will probably not very like Penguin because of its short history of success.

I think my questions still valid, how do we assure that the coming 100th Flex will be fully sold rather than "capitalised" as PPE? And the reason of both Js did not increase their stake because they talk big on AR but are not certain about the future of the bird?

They speed up the building process I think with the primary reason to fully utilise its PPE, which turns into higher NPM, but look at the iron ore now when everyone rushing to increase supplies to bring down cost where demands are not rising in tandem, are we seeing a similar situation at Penguin?

And to my surprise also is that Penguin has produced such an impressive results, solid fundamentals, why all analysts are muted?

Something very wrong here!!!

Ok, I am also vested, so less flaming is appreciated.

The reasons for my interest in this counter are:

1. decent dividend of 1cts which gives a yield of 4.5% based on price of 22cts.
2. a belief that the company today is different from the company of yesteryears. It shown a gradual n dramatic improvement in both top n bottom in the last 6-8 quarters. It seems that they have found a certain "niche" in the market.
3. it has no debt
4. it has cash horde of S$37 mil
5. it is the cheapest of all the marine n shipping stocks listed in the Singapore exchange w a p/e of 4.8x. This Marine n Shipping listing is found in ShareInvestor.

Whether the analysis will bear out remains to be seen. There maybe/maybe not, temporary "blips" in it's quarterly performance but should the analysis be correct, the company should be worth a lot more than what it is today.

I am in it for the long term. in the meantime i will be content with the 4.5% dividend yield.

Note: pls note that my analysis may or may not be correct. And also i invest based on above "story line". Should the story line change then my interest will change.

All the best to all in this forum!

Welcome here josephyeo

Would not base to much on the yield. Div history is spotty at best so talking about current div yield as a reason to invest doesn't really hold much strength.

Global shipping/shipbuilding has been booming past couple years with orders peaking end of 2013 and downtrend to now, results of this would reflect in 2014/2015 for most bigger shipbuilders in higher profits. Penguin must be a beneficiary of this uptrend in 2013 as well and has done well to capitalize on it by taking more orders and increasing production capacity. What will happen to orders later this year or next year?

Being debt free and having cash (hardly a "HORDE", its only about 26% of market cap. Look at AEH with netcash/market cap 90%+, that's a real horde.) are of course a big plus points, but investing in a small caps one would need or even expect such plus points to feel comfortable putting cash in them.

P/E dun get me started. With both values being market and business dependent and for small companies fluctuating a lot, talk about moat, niche, etc, in the end its still a small business. When sector cycles down, see how high the PE can go. I wouldn't even use it to decide on an investment.

Everyone here has their own definition of value, but so far most of the positive stuff posted here on the fundamentals sound more like growth investing.

My posts here previously was not to "splash cold water" but just to mention some of the risks associated buying in at 20c+ levels. Most buddies have bought in at much lower prices and just talk up the share in very "smug" or "feel good" kind of ways which is not helpful to newcomer.

as mentioned before, do feel that Penguin has good potential but by my books is pretty much fairly valued now but buyers should keep in mind bigger picture of a lacklustre shipbuilding sector at least for next couple quarters.

from the latest quarterly :
Sobering sentiments in the offshore oil and gas industry are expected to temper demand for the Group's crewboats and Fast Supply Intervention Vessels in sales and charters. However, demand for security
vessels (Flex Fighter) and passenger ferries (Flex Ferry), as well as ship repair services, is expected to be less affected.

but who knows, if oil makes a rebound back to $100 share price could easily hit pre GFC highs of above 30c, let's "speculate" shall we?

I do see the "popularity" of this thread and the discussion.

A reminder, focus on company topics, rather on any individual. So far so good, and this post serves as a preventive measure, especially with new members.

Thank you

Regards
Moderator

(16-04-2015, 02:53 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]I do see the "popularity" of this thread and the discussion.

A reminder, focus on company topics, rather on any individual. So far so good, and this post serves as a preventive measure, especially with new members.

Thank you

Regards
Moderator

From the AR, one will note that the company lost almost more than 1 mil in forex in previous year and continued to lose close to 3 mil last year. These are very substantial loss in view of the small size of the company.

Why the company failed to learn their lesson from the loss in previous years? Is the CFO still there after the loss of such huge amount over a period of 2 years? Have they stopped the bleed this FY?

All the hard work in expanding the yard and building boats went into the drain because of forex mishandling. Anyone held accountable?

This is why I am very unhappy with the lackadaisical attitude of the management as they faced to address it in details in their message. If the trend persist, it will be no surprise they suddenly by the end of this FY, they disclose that they lost 5 mil in forex.

To the management, stop the useless fancy slogans on your AR... fancy words do not bring food to the table .... handle the company with care and stop the bleeding.