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Hi,

Being vested in Penguin, I am wondering about the impact about the downturn in O&G.
Some members are saying that Penguin's boats are also applicable to areas other than O&G, so I am trying to understand more about these areas.

At first, I don't even know the difference between crewboats and OSV. This site cleared up my understanding:
http://www.marinemoneyoffshore.com/node/4011
I recommend it for other newbies.

So, Penguin mainly builds crewboats, which is a type of OSV.
I checked up on crewboats on the internet, and found that most sites say that the main purpose is for transporting people and small amounts of supplies quickly to and from offshore installations.

Offshore installations can be oil and gas platforms and wind farms.
According to Wikipedia, most of the major wind farms are located in Europe, so I presume that most of penguin's customers are in oil and gas. (According to the 2013 AR, most of the revenue comes from SEA and Africa)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off...wind_farms

Besides transporting to/from offshore platforms, crewboats can be used for security and firefighting.
For security, penguin can potentially supply crewboats with machine gun mounts to coast guards for use as patrol boats.

However, it seems that a company called Litaocean is already supply boats to Mindef. I imagine Mindef would like to keep their boats standardized, so perhaps there are barriers if Penguin want to break into this business in Singapore.
http://www.litaocean.com/aboutus.php
Of course Penguin can try to sell to other countries' coast guards in the region, but so far we have not heard such news.

The other possibility is for private companies who want boats with machine gun mounts to chase off pirates.
I am not sure how big is this market for armed crewboats.
I often hear news of big transport vessels getting attacked by Somalia pirates in the seas off Africa. For these cases, wouldn't it make more sense to mount the machine guns on the big vessels themselves (like what you see on youtube), rather than buy a few more crewboats to escort the big vessel? In general, I think commercial companies would only care about defending against attacks, and not pursuing pirates, so by right they don't need fast boats.

Regarding firefighting, I imagine that the main buyers are the fire-fighting departments, and they would also prefer to get their ships from the same builder for standardization, same as coast guards. So getting into the business would mean competing with the incumbent. I haven't done any research so far into this area. It would be nice if someone familiar with this can provide information. I

The SEA region have many islands and kelongs. Are crewboats frequently used to get from one island to another as some kind of small ferry? I imagine there will be competition with lower spec boats like sampans for this type of purpose.

I am very new to ship building business. Please correct me if my understanding is incorrect.
Hope to hear some opinions from buddies more experienced in this area.

Thanks!
Let me share the O&G impact on the company, base on findings in my record. Nothing concrete, but a guesstimate.

The company's Flex boats are broadly divided to offshore O&G activities, or marine/other activities. The company didn't disclose any clue on the customer mix, thus we need to do a guesstimate.

I did a guesstimate, base on geographical location of customers.
- West Africa was started off with Offshore biz, and I guess the customers there should be still with offshore O&G.
- SEA (ex Singapore), should also with Offshore O&G, base on clue from various AR

- Europe should be general marine customer
- Singapore, as a shipping hub, should be general marine customer.

Base on the assumptions, and numbers from AR2013, the guesstimates are
- O&G (approx 56%)
- Marine (approx 41%)
- The rest approx 3%

Comments are welcome

(vested)
(02-10-2014, 09:38 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-10-2014, 12:27 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Already way overvalued. already some people here have collected at sub 14cent levels last year with sufficient MOS and will be looking to cash out.

Already had a big >100% rise and neither NAV nor dividend yield has risen enough to catch up with the stock price. Based on NAV there is no MOS anymore. Earnings may have already peaked.

If O&G sector goes into sustained downturn, like iron ore/rubber/palm oil, companies would probably stop new investment and ordering new vessels altogether. Have the happy buddies factored in this possibility and the potential hit to earnings? not sure how its gonna get to the 45cents valuation then. That's why I personally dun like to use earnings at all in my valuations.

At >20cents this share is definitely a sell and not buy.

Unfortunately I will have to "Caveat emptor" this stock.

First of all, Penguin business isn't entirely depend on O&G, unlike OSV builders. Next, I am not so sure O&G is going into a sustaining downturn now. Big Grin
(vested)

Hi CityFarmer, hope you dun mind me bringing up past quotes but this was a recent reply you had to a post of mine. it seems by your estimates now that Penguin has ~50% exposure to O&G related which though not entirely dependent, could be considered significant?

O&G is going into a downturn now, how many months will oil price have to remain low before one could consider it a sustained downturn?

I still maintain my views on this stock that oil down penguin down, stock price seems to have similar direction to oil price so far. its wholly owned subsidiary is not called Pelican Offshore for nothing.
(21-11-2014, 05:52 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-10-2014, 09:38 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]First of all, Penguin business isn't entirely depend on O&G, unlike OSV builders. Next, I am not so sure O&G is going into a sustaining downturn now. Big Grin
(vested)

Hi CityFarmer, hope you dun mind me bringing up past quotes but this was a recent reply you had to a post of mine. it seems by your estimates now that Penguin has ~50% exposure to O&G related which though not entirely dependent, could be considered significant?

O&G is going into a downturn now, how many months will oil price have to remain low before one could consider it a sustained downturn?

I still maintain my views on this stock that oil down penguin down, stock price seems to have similar direction to oil price so far. its wholly owned subsidiary is not called Pelican Offshore for nothing.

I wouldn't mind at all. I hope I have been consistent on my thought. Big Grin

Yes, my previous reply was "isn't entirely depend on O&G, unlike OSV builders", because only estimated half of business is depend on O&G. OSV builders are 100% depend on O&G sector. It should be consistent, right? I hope my English didn't fail me.

I respect your view, but I will still maintain my view. Base on observation, shallow-water O&G still remains strong. It is not difficult to understand, because oil-price need to fall much lower, before it will severely hit on shallow-water offshore sector.

Furthermore Penguin products can be re-used for other marine activities, without any modification. Order from Marine sector, is also a significant biz of Penguin.

(vested)
Hi CityFarmer and BlueKelah, thanks alot for sharing your thoughts. Always useful to hear different viewpoints.

CityFarmer, I want to research more about the business from the Marine sector, but not sure where to start.
Can you tell me the source of your information? Thanks!

(21-11-2014, 09:48 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Furthermore Penguin products can be re-used for other marine activities, without any modification. Order from Marine sector, is also a significant biz of Penguin.
IMO, there are no better source than the company ARs. I have read AR since IPO to the latest quarterly report.

It seems no analyst covering the company, and the management is media-shy, thus very little direct info on the company biz, beside ARs. Big Grin

(22-11-2014, 10:00 AM)gzbkel Wrote: [ -> ]Hi CityFarmer and BlueKelah, thanks alot for sharing your thoughts. Always useful to hear different viewpoints.

CityFarmer, I want to research more about the business from the Marine sector, but not sure where to start.
Can you tell me the source of your information? Thanks!

(21-11-2014, 09:48 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Furthermore Penguin products can be re-used for other marine activities, without any modification. Order from Marine sector, is also a significant biz of Penguin.
CityFarmer, thanks for the advice, will go read some back numbers.
For those who are interested to know what has been going on and the level of activities in Penguin's recently expanded shipyard (held under wholly-owned subsidiary PT Kim Seah Shipyard Indonesia (PTKS)) in Batam, Indonesia, you can review the 5 moving photos in PTKS webpage of Penguin's website by using below linkā€¦..
http://www.penguin.com.sg/our-subsidiari...indonesia/

From the word descriptions in the webpage and the photos, we know PTKS now has and operates 3 covered workshops. Quite clearly, the total production capacity of the Batam yard is significantly higher than that of the Singapore yard located at 18 Tuas Basin Link.
(10-11-2014, 10:36 AM)dydx Wrote: [ -> ]So far Mr Market has rewarded Penguin shareholders with an extra $0.01, or 4.3%, in market valuation this morning. At the last done price of $0.245, and against Penguin's projected 31Dec14 NAV/share of approx. $0.213 (assuming Q4's EPS would be another $0.0121 - similar to Q3's), Mr Market is now merely attaching a small $0.032 premium for Penguin's future earnings stream, which should grow further and exceed the projected current FY14's EPS of $0.05 a year.

Is a premium of 1.5x to 2.0x of current EPS too much for a well-established and run, and growing business with an expanding international footprint?

So far Mr. Market has lost Penguin shareholders and extra $0.015 in market valuation this morning.

At 0.22, Mr. Market is now merely attaching a small $0.007 premium for Penguin's future earnings stream.

Already down 10% from 0.245 , anyone accumulating?
OPEC scare has hurt all O&G counters, Big Grin
This is a good time to buy on dips! Tongue