(04-04-2015, 11:19 PM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ]Hi ValueBuddies,
Thank you thank you for all your replies. Oldman can't thank you all enough especially Portuser , Cy09, Leeeta, Curious Party for attempting to answer my question to the best they can. Portuser's analysis opened my eyes and let me see from the bondholders view what they expect in return on their so called "gamble" on Garden fresh. Never thought analysis can be done this way. 
The risks that I presented in my 4 April post are partly correct.
The correct part is that if IPO goes through but at a PER lower than 9 times earnings, holders of 2011 bonds will forego the redemption amount based on 25% compound interest.
If they decline the low-price Garden Fresh shares, the redemption amount is much lower, based on 10% compound interest for the entire bond duration (ie the original three years up to 19 Oct 14 plus the extension thereafter).
The incorrect part relates to IPO not going through after submission of application.
My point that "
if Garden Fresh fails to get listed despite submission of listing application, say by Oct 2015, bondholders will receive RMB 141m (175% * RMB 80.5m), which is lower than the RMB 157m that could have been received a year ago" is wrong.
According to pg 88 of the just-released annual report, if listing does not materialise, holders of 2011 bonds who extended the maturity from 20 Oct 14 to 30 June 15 will
not forego the RMB 157m that they would have received:
"
Formal application for listing of the shares has been made to an Approved Exchange by the Extended Maturity Date but a Qualifying IPO has not yet taken place, and no agreement has been made among the 2011
Convertible Bondholders and the issuer for an extension of the maturity of the 2011 Convertible Bond;
Outstanding Principal Amount multiplied by 1.25^ y + Outstanding Principal Amount multiplied by 1.15^ x (-)
Where y = number of calendar days from and including issue date to and including 19 October 2014 divided by 365,
Where x = number of calendar days from and including 20 October 2014 to, but excluding Redemption Date, divided by 365."
In other words, the higher 25% interest applied up to 19 Oct 2104, and the lower 15% interest rate kicked in thereafter.
(07-04-2015, 01:47 PM)portuser Wrote: [ -> ] (04-04-2015, 11:19 PM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ]Hi ValueBuddies,
Thank you thank you for all your replies. Oldman can't thank you all enough especially Portuser , Cy09, Leeeta, Curious Party for attempting to answer my question to the best they can. Portuser's analysis opened my eyes and let me see from the bondholders view what they expect in return on their so called "gamble" on Garden fresh. Never thought analysis can be done this way.
The risks that I presented in my 4 April post are partly correct.
The correct part is that if IPO goes through but at a PER lower than 9 times earnings, holders of 2011 bonds will forego the redemption amount based on 25% compound interest.
If they decline the low-price Garden Fresh shares, the redemption amount is much lower, based on 10% compound interest for the entire bond duration (ie the original three years up to 19 Oct 14 plus the extension thereafter).
The incorrect part relates to IPO not going through after submission of application.
My point that "if Garden Fresh fails to get listed despite submission of listing application, say by Oct 2015, bondholders will receive RMB 141m (175% * RMB 80.5m), which is lower than the RMB 157m that could have been received a year ago" is wrong.
According to pg 88 of the just-released annual report, if listing does not materialise, holders of 2011 bonds who extended the maturity from 20 Oct 14 to 30 June 15 will not forego the RMB 157m that they would have received:
"Formal application for listing of the shares has been made to an Approved Exchange by the Extended Maturity Date but a Qualifying IPO has not yet taken place, and no agreement has been made among the 2011
Convertible Bondholders and the issuer for an extension of the maturity of the 2011 Convertible Bond;
Outstanding Principal Amount multiplied by 1.25^ y + Outstanding Principal Amount multiplied by 1.15^ x (-)
Where y = number of calendar days from and including issue date to and including 19 October 2014 divided by 365,
Where x = number of calendar days from and including 20 October 2014 to, but excluding Redemption Date, divided by 365."
In other words, the higher 25% interest applied up to 19 Oct 2104, and the lower 15% interest rate kicked in thereafter.
Hi Portuser
Thank you once again for the clarification.
So this means that Sino Grandness has more reason now to make the IPO a success otherwise "higher penalty+additional interest charge" kicks in. Is this correct?
I read somewhere in the forum that delaying the IPO could be a good thing for shareholders, but this does not appear so now as extensions too cost money unless bonds are redeemed early. Correct this oldman if am wrong?
Thank you
Oldman9
Slowly but surely looking positive now. Price seems to stable after Thai investors and CEO bought more shares from the market. Now closely monitor next q results, due date for the bonds and any news on the IPO. I also take comfort that there are actually reports on the ground that Sino's products are 'visible' in the market in both China and HK, be it advertisement or shop shelf.
(31-03-2015, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (30-03-2015, 10:20 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ]Many here are also behaving like mini Iceberg, it make me wonder if you are not vested, talk so much for what? Even if the company gone bust or share price sky rocketed, it also make absolutely no different to your pocket.
The statement is flaw, IMO, at least in the context of VB forum.
The purpose of VB forum, is sharing. Sharing of experiences, sharing of views, skeptics, doubts, and etc. This include those non-interested-parties.
In fact, I am interested on view from non-interested-parties. As you said, why bother, since no difference? I reckon the only reason is willingness to share.
I respectfully disagree. Your statement is sound on the basis that people post with good intention, or at least, are neutral. However, it is human nature to post something negative than positive. How many people bother to write complimentary letter after receiving a good service at a bank, restaurant, shop, etc? On the other hand, people are quick to write complaint letter if they think the service rendered is undesirable.
Straco is good, China Merchant is good, Silverlake is good too and how many non vested parties post in the respective threads to say good or positive things? Far and few in between but when a company is 'down', negative post will sure surface just like when Sino's price plunged. Now the price is on the up, you can see the last 'bad' post was sometime back. It just show human nature. It just show that non vested party will not say good thing when price goes up but will quick to say bad thing when price goes down.
(08-04-2015, 09:18 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ] (31-03-2015, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (30-03-2015, 10:20 PM)Bluechipfan Wrote: [ -> ]Many here are also behaving like mini Iceberg, it make me wonder if you are not vested, talk so much for what? Even if the company gone bust or share price sky rocketed, it also make absolutely no different to your pocket.
The statement is flaw, IMO, at least in the context of VB forum.
The purpose of VB forum, is sharing. Sharing of experiences, sharing of views, skeptics, doubts, and etc. This include those non-interested-parties.
In fact, I am interested on view from non-interested-parties. As you said, why bother, since no difference? I reckon the only reason is willingness to share.
I respectfully disagree. Your statement is sound on the basis that people post with good intention, or at least, are neutral. However, it is human nature to post something negative than positive. How many people bother to write complimentary letter after receiving a good service at a bank, restaurant, shop, etc? On the other hand, people are quick to write complaint letter if they think the service rendered is undesirable.
Straco is good, China Merchant is good, Silverlake is good too and how many non vested parties post in the respective threads to say good or positive things? Far and few in between but when a company is 'down', negative post will sure surface just like when Sino's price plunged. Now the price is on the up, you can see the last 'bad' post was sometime back. It just show human nature. It just show that non vested party will not say good thing when price goes up but will quick to say bad thing when price goes down.
As a investor that places focus bets, I personally do not like share price with volatile track record. In addition, volatile share price is usually a reflection of fundamental volatility which will take management a long time to repair damaged investors' confidence.
To be fair, I have been skeptical on performing stocks that I m not vested like yzj. I gain invaluable insights from buddies who are vested and more experienced. While I do not gain financially but in terms of knowledge, I m wiser and via the exchanges many other silent buddies are wiser in the process.
Based on my investment journey, good track record need not be too complicated or to assume excessive risks. In fact simple business model that is too boring and too high yielding may just turn out to be stable ones that many buddies are hunting for.
Stable and predictable business instill confidence in oneself to increase positions over time and hence re-rating and PE expansion in some stocks could be due to track record that they build up over time.
If u mention Dr Wee, FF Wong, Ow CK and even Charoen, I think investors have confidence than many Chinese businessmen.
GG
(08-04-2015, 10:21 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Based on my investment journey, good track record need not be too complicated or to assume excessive risks. In fact simple business model that is too boring and too high yielding may just turn out to be stable ones that many buddies are hunting for.
Stable and predictable business instill confidence in oneself to increase positions over time and hence re-rating and PE expansion in some stocks could be due to track record that they build up over time.
This is probably a proven recipe to success in stock-picking. A valuable shared experience for VB buddies.
Hi Valuebuddies
Oldman newbie here. Hope i can comment if you all don't mind. I do agree with bluechipfan after reading some of the posts made by other buddies.
People are quick to write off stocks especially s-chips.
Take for example Sino Grandness 4Q result, where Sino Grandness posted a loss. But loss is only a once off and not a operational loss. In fact 4Q shows that they made profit but comments on the forum are not too kind. Worst made when the short sellers attacked the company. Now Sino Grandness is on the way up. If they had not been biased, studied a bit deeper and bought at the low PE, they would have earned a bit now. Like oldman.
Mr Giraffe also made good points on investments. But considering that Sino Grandness PE is very low, it is worth while to look into it (if you believe the numbers), especially for those who are more adventurous. What made oldman look into this stock is because of the involvement of the Thais, the low PE and possibility of listing of Garden Fresh. Wish me luck.
Thanks for reading my comments.
Oldman9.
I agree with Bluechipfan. Although VB was set up with good intentions and principles and the moderators and great doing their job, it would be naive to think all members here post with good intentions. How can you truly be 100% sure if someone says they are not vested and just post comments be it good or bad for the greater good of the whole community?? Take everyone and everything you read on the net with a pinch of salt.
Many times I have seen ppl in forums come out to bad mouth a falling/crashing stock, giving advice and saying I told you sold blah blah.... then when the stock goes up, all disappear....
oldman9 I suspect you are probably not too old
old people like us tend to be much more skeptical when we see money lying on the streets.
Personally I hope I have been rather unbiased and as factual as possible in this thread. But if forumers here just make their decision based on posts without further DD or analysis, then it is no diff from listening to stock tips off the street. Nobody owe us a duty because when we make money we also don't pay out either
Personally I like constructive non-abusive posts, pros or cons, that helps to analyse better. But as usual, when PERSONAL money is concerned, you see a lot of emotions attached.
Personally when a stock is up I trace back VB threads on what can go wrong, and conversely what can be positive when stock is down. Then again my style is catayst driven fundamentals, so it might not work for everyone.
After a while one should be able to filter out the noise and who are the VBs to follow. And sometimes the noise gives good indication, might not be accurate, of where the market sentiment lies and what Mr Market is looking at. In this thread portuser is a good VB to track and ask for fundy, but execution is your own. That's the other 1/2 of the game and we can blame no one.