19-08-2015, 04:58 PM
Hi,
Been following this thread for a while, interesting analysis done by all.
Here's my thoughts on the business aspect:
1) For those that are doubtful of the sales, and can't find the drinks in many parts of china. Personally, i am not surprise. China is a big place, and i am sure not everyone moves within China to the extent that they are able to visit so many supermarkets. However, do give credit to them being able to participate in Chengdu trade exhibition. This is not a small scale one, and i am sure those without due credits are not able to set up such a big booth.
2) For the "missing cash", where did it go? The fixed assets and prepayments, takes a huge chunk out of it. Ok, it can be fake, as it's just book numbers. But, does television and advertising can be fake? They take prepayments for such contracts if i am correct. Personally, what is Huang's reward to fake so long, when he is in the business for so many years already. The risk and rewards, just do not sound right to me to continue to fake it. I will have run off with whatever i had raised during IPO or the sucker, "Thai investor" joined. I do not see the issue of high receivables since there are no mounting bad debts.
3) I do not think IPO for garden fresh will be soon. But, i do see a slight chance of privatization. This is the most rewarding way for Huang and the Thai themselves for sure. (I do hope IPO is still on though) Is it expensive if they buy open market? No, it's dirt cheap for them now, it should cost them less than $200m (deducting their own shares, and including some premium).
4) What is valuable in Sino G? It definitely must be the network channels in China and Huang's expertise to bring all these together and function in the right way. In such trading business, supply chain is the most important to manage. Furthermore, the company has networks to China, europe, hk, thailand now, and in the near future, we might be seeing Taiwan as well. So, if you think carefully, this company is moving in the right direction.
After all above, what does it takes for the share price to rise?? Clarity.. Once management are able to share the news over these few issues, CB1 and CB2, new investor,IPO and cash collections. This will be shooting up. I do think more will be shed within a month's time since the blackout period is over.
All said, above is all my own opinion only.
Been following this thread for a while, interesting analysis done by all.
Here's my thoughts on the business aspect:
1) For those that are doubtful of the sales, and can't find the drinks in many parts of china. Personally, i am not surprise. China is a big place, and i am sure not everyone moves within China to the extent that they are able to visit so many supermarkets. However, do give credit to them being able to participate in Chengdu trade exhibition. This is not a small scale one, and i am sure those without due credits are not able to set up such a big booth.
2) For the "missing cash", where did it go? The fixed assets and prepayments, takes a huge chunk out of it. Ok, it can be fake, as it's just book numbers. But, does television and advertising can be fake? They take prepayments for such contracts if i am correct. Personally, what is Huang's reward to fake so long, when he is in the business for so many years already. The risk and rewards, just do not sound right to me to continue to fake it. I will have run off with whatever i had raised during IPO or the sucker, "Thai investor" joined. I do not see the issue of high receivables since there are no mounting bad debts.
3) I do not think IPO for garden fresh will be soon. But, i do see a slight chance of privatization. This is the most rewarding way for Huang and the Thai themselves for sure. (I do hope IPO is still on though) Is it expensive if they buy open market? No, it's dirt cheap for them now, it should cost them less than $200m (deducting their own shares, and including some premium).
4) What is valuable in Sino G? It definitely must be the network channels in China and Huang's expertise to bring all these together and function in the right way. In such trading business, supply chain is the most important to manage. Furthermore, the company has networks to China, europe, hk, thailand now, and in the near future, we might be seeing Taiwan as well. So, if you think carefully, this company is moving in the right direction.
After all above, what does it takes for the share price to rise?? Clarity.. Once management are able to share the news over these few issues, CB1 and CB2, new investor,IPO and cash collections. This will be shooting up. I do think more will be shed within a month's time since the blackout period is over.
All said, above is all my own opinion only.
thanks for sharing man !