(23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
1) Allegations that the IPO process is fake have been around for a long time.
It is highly unlikely that auditors had not verified the RMB 13m payments to IPO professionals. Had the Thai strategic investors not bother to establish whether the IPO is work-in-progress? By the way HHL has already explained on Sharejunction why the IPO process takes time.
2) Sino Grandness came into being after Mr Huang bought over the state-own company that produced canned asparagus for Lidl to sell in its supermarkets in Germany. Import requirements for food are stringent in Germany. As the canned products are sold under the its house brand, Lidl has to assure itself that growing of asparagus and canning are carried out satisfactorily.
China is the leading exporting country of fresh and processed asparagus followed by Peru. You may refer to Sino's IPO prospectus if you are so keen on Sino.
(23-06-2015, 06:41 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
1) Allegations that the IPO process is fake have been around for a long time.
It is highly unlikely that auditors had not verified the RMB 13m payments to IPO professionals. Had the Thai strategic investors not bother to establish whether the IPO is work-in-progress? By the way HHL has already explained on Sharejunction why the IPO process takes time.
2) Sino Grandness came into being after Mr Huang bought over the state-own company that produced canned asparagus for Lidl to sell in its supermarkets in Germany. Import requirements for food are stringent in Germany. As the canned products are sold under the its house brand, Lidl has to assure itself that growing of asparagus and canning are carried out satisfactorily.
China is the leading exporting country of fresh and processed asparagus followed by Peru. You may refer to Sino's IPO prospectus if you are so keen on Sino.
The explanation on why the IPO process is so long is weak at best. For one, you don't need to verify every single distributor. In addition, in my experience, channel checking is quick easy and can be easily outsourced. I have done it once before with great efficacy.
Regarding Lidl, it is a poor explanation. Vegetable canning, no matter how one spins it (quality control, import requirements, etc), is a commoditized service. Anyone can do it, anywhere. A potential comparable is Hanover Foods. It does vegetable canning too. GPM is ~15% in the latest reported financial data, and AR % Rev is less than 10%. SinoG, on the other hand, has a 33% GPM and AR % Rev of 38%.
(23-06-2015, 06:58 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:41 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
1) Allegations that the IPO process is fake have been around for a long time.
It is highly unlikely that auditors had not verified the RMB 13m payments to IPO professionals. Had the Thai strategic investors not bother to establish whether the IPO is work-in-progress? By the way HHL has already explained on Sharejunction why the IPO process takes time.
2) Sino Grandness came into being after Mr Huang bought over the state-own company that produced canned asparagus for Lidl to sell in its supermarkets in Germany. Import requirements for food are stringent in Germany. As the canned products are sold under the its house brand, Lidl has to assure itself that growing of asparagus and canning are carried out satisfactorily.
China is the leading exporting country of fresh and processed asparagus followed by Peru. You may refer to Sino's IPO prospectus if you are so keen on Sino.
The explanation on why the IPO process is so long is weak at best. For one, you don't need to verify every single distributor. In addition, in my experience, channel checking is quick easy and can be easily outsourced. I have done it once before with great efficacy.
Regarding Lidl, it is a poor explanation. Vegetable canning, no matter how one spins it (quality control, import requirements, etc), is a commoditized service. Anyone can do it, anywhere. A potential comparable is Hanover Foods. It does vegetable canning too. GPM is ~15% in the latest reported financial data, and AR % Rev is less than 10%. SinoG, on the other hand, has a 33% GPM and AR % Rev of 38%.
Another potential comparable is Seneca Foods, which has GPM of ~7%.
(23-06-2015, 06:58 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:41 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
1) Allegations that the IPO process is fake have been around for a long time.
It is highly unlikely that auditors had not verified the RMB 13m payments to IPO professionals. Had the Thai strategic investors not bother to establish whether the IPO is work-in-progress? By the way HHL has already explained on Sharejunction why the IPO process takes time.
2) Sino Grandness came into being after Mr Huang bought over the state-own company that produced canned asparagus for Lidl to sell in its supermarkets in Germany. Import requirements for food are stringent in Germany. As the canned products are sold under the its house brand, Lidl has to assure itself that growing of asparagus and canning are carried out satisfactorily.
China is the leading exporting country of fresh and processed asparagus followed by Peru. You may refer to Sino's IPO prospectus if you are so keen on Sino.
The explanation on why the IPO process is so long is weak at best. For one, you don't need to verify every single distributor. In addition, in my experience, channel checking is quick easy and can be easily outsourced. I have done it once before with great efficacy.
Regarding Lidl, it is a poor explanation. Vegetable canning, no matter how one spins it (quality control, import requirements, etc), is a commoditized service. Anyone can do it, anywhere. A potential comparable is Hanover Foods. It does vegetable canning too. GPM is ~15% in the latest reported financial data, and AR % Rev is less than 10%. SinoG, on the other hand, has a 33% GPM and AR % Rev of 38%.
You claim that you have done channel checking before..how do we know?
Are you also familiar with the new IPO process in HK?
You said anyone can do manufacturing/vegetable canning anywhere to sell to Lidl. I say No. Do you know that for export to Germany you must have HACCP certification and satisfy "Green Barrier" requirements? Are you familiar with the food industry?
Lidl is big supermarket chain with 3300 outlets in Germany and 9800 across Europe. Sino has been serving Lidl since 1998. Sino's published accounts are accessible by all its customers. If the accounts shows that Sino has overcharged Lidl to get a fat margin, Lidl would have terminated Sino's service. Fyi, Ceo Huang has indicated that Lidl sources their house brand canned asparagus from China and Peru. Why do you think Lidl continues to be a customer of Sino?
Your reference to Hanover food is of little relevance. As a fund manager you should know that companies in different countries have different cost structures.
BlueDogMeow,
Your claim that you need not check with Sino before passing remarks on the company is startling.
Your point that "Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question" is a wild statement not backed up by any anlysis.
Have you studied Huiyuan's accounts?
Bluedogmeow,
Sino Grandness FY2013 and FY2014 profits were RMB 418 mil and RMB 467 mil respectively. 1QFY2015 profit was RMB 105 mil versus 1QFY2014 profit of RMB 73 mil.
Why do you say the company's business has very poor earnings quality?
(23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]Hey guys. Seems like my account on the forum, Sharejunction, was banned. And it seems my posts have been closely tracked and deleted, even on a new account. This forum is not as fun as you guys seem more...realistic.
In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
Also, it seems some people have been saying that I am a high school student. If that is so, I am pretty impressed by myself. Running a fund below 18.
Regards,
poopfeast420
@CityFarmer
I believe this was one of the reasons why BlueDogMeow was banned in Share Junction. Accusation of fraud is a very serious allegation and a company can potentially take action against the individual and the forum.
[Image: na09rxx5l]
@BlueDogMeow
You haven't explained to me why did you use Sino Grandness's revenue to calculate DSO when you yourself said the revenue is fake.
(23-06-2015, 10:16 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:58 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:41 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
1) Allegations that the IPO process is fake have been around for a long time.
It is highly unlikely that auditors had not verified the RMB 13m payments to IPO professionals. Had the Thai strategic investors not bother to establish whether the IPO is work-in-progress? By the way HHL has already explained on Sharejunction why the IPO process takes time.
2) Sino Grandness came into being after Mr Huang bought over the state-own company that produced canned asparagus for Lidl to sell in its supermarkets in Germany. Import requirements for food are stringent in Germany. As the canned products are sold under the its house brand, Lidl has to assure itself that growing of asparagus and canning are carried out satisfactorily.
China is the leading exporting country of fresh and processed asparagus followed by Peru. You may refer to Sino's IPO prospectus if you are so keen on Sino.
The explanation on why the IPO process is so long is weak at best. For one, you don't need to verify every single distributor. In addition, in my experience, channel checking is quick easy and can be easily outsourced. I have done it once before with great efficacy.
Regarding Lidl, it is a poor explanation. Vegetable canning, no matter how one spins it (quality control, import requirements, etc), is a commoditized service. Anyone can do it, anywhere. A potential comparable is Hanover Foods. It does vegetable canning too. GPM is ~15% in the latest reported financial data, and AR % Rev is less than 10%. SinoG, on the other hand, has a 33% GPM and AR % Rev of 38%.
You claim that you have done channel checking before..how do we know?
Are you also familiar with the new IPO process in HK?
You said anyone can do manufacturing/vegetable canning anywhere to sell to Lidl. I say No. Do you know that for export to Germany you must have HACCP certification and satisfy "Green Barrier" requirements? Are you familiar with the food industry?
Lidl is big supermarket chain with 3300 outlets in Germany and 9800 across Europe. Sino has been serving Lidl since 1998. Sino's published accounts are accessible by all its customers. If the accounts shows that Sino has overcharged Lidl to get a fat margin, Lidl would have terminated Sino's service. Fyi, Ceo Huang has indicated that Lidl sources their house brand canned asparagus from China and Peru. Why do you think Lidl continues to be a customer of Sino?
Your reference to Hanover food is of little relevance. As a fund manager you should know that companies in different countries have different cost structures.
This idea that SinoG has cost advantages over companies such as Seneca Foods because it satisfies HACCP or the Green Barrier requirements is laughable. It took me great effort to find that Seneca Foods do satisfy the requirements. It seems that it is so obvious that these companies, obviously, satisfy the requirements that they don't find the need to disclose it as material information.
You are right in saying that different countries have different cost structure. That is why I reference Gross Profit Margins, and a balance sheet comparable method, so as to ignore OPEX differences.
(23-06-2015, 10:30 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]BlueDogMeow,
Your claim that you need not check with Sino before passing remarks on the company is startling.
Your point that "Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question" is a wild statement not backed up by any anlysis.
Have you studied Huiyuan's accounts?
Q2 & Q3 are quarters which have liquidity events. Unless it is able to refinance, and at way difference terms, the only way SinoG is able to meet the debt is through the harvesting of its working capital, or more specifically, accounts receivables. I guess another way is by drawing down on suppliers credit, but that is just changing a long term financial debt to a short term operational debt, which is bad and non-recurring. So again, the only way is to harvest its accounts receivables.
Since the bear case rests on the fact that SinoG A/R is "unharvestable" to put it nicely, the inability to repay the debt through the harvesting of A/R is a validation.
