You have stated that "Garden Fresh spent a mere 20 million rmb on advertising and promotion in 2013."
What is your source?
The annual report shows RMB 59.8m (RMB 35m on advertisement & promotion + RMB 24.8m on promotion expnse) spent in 2013.
In 2014, RMB 201.3m (RMB 122.6m advertisement & promotion + RMB 78.7m on promotion expense) was spent.
After reading Crackers posts, Chalermchai decided to add another 200 lots to his holdings. lol.
(08-07-2015, 08:18 PM)cracker Wrote: [ -> ]As I said, I'm sure Garden Fresh does exist in the other provinces but from my experience I've yet to find any despite numerous supermarket and convenience store visits in Sichuan, Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai. While I'm sure they do exist, the difficulty in finding them shows that they are few and far between. On the contrary, brands like Vitasoy, Tropicana and Nongfu Orchard are very easily found, more befitting of a top 10 Chinese fruit juice brand in China.
You know it's funny, I remember attending a company briefing where they responded to some of the Newman9 allegations. Newman9 had criticized Company for using Frost & Sullivan, and cited the recent example of Tianhe Chemicals using Frost & Sullivan, then later proving to be a fraud. Company responded by citing a couple of examples in which HK and US listed Chinese companies had used Euromonitor and then later turned out to have accounting issues as well. Their stance at that time was "why attack Frost & Sullivan when Euromonitor has faced similar issues as well?" So now all of a sudden now that they have gotten Euromonitor, Euromonitor is now infallible?
In fact I would like to quote something interesting from the Newman9 report. "A criticism of Euromonitor data is that it is somewhat subjective and relies heavily on conversations with industry participants as well as company furnished information. However, the work done by Euromonitor is further corroborated by Nielsen, which uses objective scanner data. Garden Fresh is not found in the top 13, which is as far as Nielsen breaks out the data. Nielsen shows the #13 company, Beiqi, had estimated retail sales value of RMB 135 million." If this is true, this means that Nielsen is the only one out of the 3 that uses objective scanner data from supermarkets and stores to measure sales, which needless to say, would be as close to the truth as you can get.
Ultimately, what this teaches you is to never outsource your research and due diligence to third parties. That is just laziness in my opinion. Whatever the brand name, however rich they may be, they all are humans too, and humans get things wrong from time to time. Furthermore, to them this is an almost negligible percentage of their overall portfolios. They can afford the risk. Can we? In the end, they are not responsible for your money and own investment - you are. My own research in China makes me very uncomfortable about the Company. My only advice to you, is to go to China if possible, and do your own objective research first, then make your own decision.
Hi , can you point out to us which part of the research data or methods you dont understand? Such that we can conclude a better understanding?
(09-07-2015, 08:06 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ]After reading Crackers posts, Chalermchai decided to add another 200 lots to his holdings. lol.
Hahaha , quote of the year...
In fact , Charlemchai knew too much than most of us...
Cracker
Thank you for telling us that Garden Fresh cannot be selling more than older brands such as Vitasoy and Nongfu Orchard.
Well I must say that Thai investors, convertible bond holders and IPO professionals should be aware of this because the data are publicly available. Yet Thai investors have been buying more Sino shares.
When PRC banks granted untapped credit facilities of RMB 240m to Garden Fresh, did they not ask the obvious question that you have posed?
cheers
oldman9
(10-07-2015, 09:05 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ]Cracker
Thank you for telling us that Garden Fresh cannot be selling more than older brands such as Vitasoy and Nongfu Orchard.
Well I must say that Thai investors, convertible bond holders and IPO professionals should be aware of this because the data are publicly available. Yet Thai investors have been buying more Sino shares.
When PRC banks granted untapped credit facilities of RMB 240m to Garden Fresh, did they not ask the obvious question that you have posed?
cheers
oldman9
What i couldnt understand is, critics have been putting the , Big Thai investors , Bond holders in the Samaritan's seat, they seem like the only people that were'nt cautious about S-Chips. I would like to think that the Thais, with so much experience in owning and managing listed companies in both TSE & SGX would have done their through auditing of Sino Grandness.
Hence, With the confidence, we are able to see the Thais invest in Sino Grandness and up-stake at times like today. It is definitely a good price if you see the potential. The Big thai investor will continue to up-stake, for i think they know much more than we do.
Cheers!
(09-07-2015, 08:06 PM)leeeta Wrote: [ -> ]After reading Crackers posts, Chalermchai decided to add another 200 lots to his holdings. lol.
Hi Leeeta
Thai bought again. This time 228k lots. Transaction done yesterday.
Looks like something is brewing.
cheers
Oldman
(08-07-2015, 01:13 PM)cracker Wrote: [ -> ]Garden Fresh's reported sales may still be smaller than Huiyuan but they are significantly larger than Pepsico's Tropicana (1.393 billion) and Vitasoy (1.245 billion) while being comparable to Nongfu Orchard (1.9 billion). From my experience, all of these, except for Garden Fresh, are household brands in China and very easy to find in any city, so it's hard for me to believe Garden Fresh has comparable sales to them.
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I was intrigued by Cracker's statement that sales of Vitasoy in China were RMB 1,254 million. Cracker's point is that Garden Fresh could not have sold more than Vitasoy in China.
I looked up results announcement of Vitasoy and found the following:
sales................HK $ million
....................2014..........2013
Hong Kong.....2,048........1,899
China............1,916.........1,505
Others..........1,088.........1,090
Total........... .5,052........4,494
It would appear that the RMB 1,254 billion sales quoted by Cracker is converted from 2013 reported sales of HK$ 1,505m at an exchange rate of RMB = HK$ 1.2.
It seems strange that Vitasoy sold more in Hong Kong than in China, bearing in mind that HK population is 7 million only.
Cannot think of a plausible answer...........