17-01-2016, 12:34 PM
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[Image: 1zvwfgl.jpg]
I have tabulated the above table F and plotted graph 3.
From the cash flow statements of the group which I have summarized (see table A, post#1072), the top 3 use of cash were:
1) increase in operating receivables
2) acquisition of PPE
3) imcome tax paid
I then expressed them as % of revenue and compared them with ocf b4 wcc as % of revenue.
ocf b4 wcc as % of revenue, which is represented by the blue-line on the graph was surprisingly quite stable, and averaging at 25% over the 6 years period.
The top 3 use of cash as a % of revenue is represented by the red-line.
Blue-line above red-line means ocf b4 wcc could cover the top 3 use of cash, and the gap between the two lines represents the “cash surplus” as % of revenue. This scenario happened only once in 2010 over the 6 year period.
Red-line above blue-line means ocf b4 wcc could not cover the top 3 use of cash, and the gap between the two lines represents the “cash deficit” as % of revenue.
This “cash deficit gap” as a % of revenue had stayed pretty flat at around 6% to 7% between 2011 and 2014. If it doesn’t improved, more sale means more funding (in absolute term) would be needed to plug the gap.
Funding gap of RMB 6 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 100m.
Funding gap of RMB 12 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 200m.
Funding gap of RMB 180 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 3,000m.
Question: Will the blue-line climb above the red-line (or the red-line dives below the blue-line) again? If so, what is the likely timeline?
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[Image: 1zvwfgl.jpg]
I have tabulated the above table F and plotted graph 3.
From the cash flow statements of the group which I have summarized (see table A, post#1072), the top 3 use of cash were:
1) increase in operating receivables
2) acquisition of PPE
3) imcome tax paid
I then expressed them as % of revenue and compared them with ocf b4 wcc as % of revenue.
ocf b4 wcc as % of revenue, which is represented by the blue-line on the graph was surprisingly quite stable, and averaging at 25% over the 6 years period.
The top 3 use of cash as a % of revenue is represented by the red-line.
Blue-line above red-line means ocf b4 wcc could cover the top 3 use of cash, and the gap between the two lines represents the “cash surplus” as % of revenue. This scenario happened only once in 2010 over the 6 year period.
Red-line above blue-line means ocf b4 wcc could not cover the top 3 use of cash, and the gap between the two lines represents the “cash deficit” as % of revenue.
This “cash deficit gap” as a % of revenue had stayed pretty flat at around 6% to 7% between 2011 and 2014. If it doesn’t improved, more sale means more funding (in absolute term) would be needed to plug the gap.
Funding gap of RMB 6 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 100m.
Funding gap of RMB 12 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 200m.
Funding gap of RMB 180 m would be needed for revenue of RMB 3,000m.
Question: Will the blue-line climb above the red-line (or the red-line dives below the blue-line) again? If so, what is the likely timeline?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________