(23-06-2015, 06:21 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 05:02 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Bluedogmeow
Have you met Sino Grandness staff or clarified with them your serious doubts about the company?
When you readily agreed with a Sharejunction forummer that collection risks existed for the RMB 121m VAT receivables and RMB 48m export tax refunds, I realised that you did not know that these are amounts owed by Government and should be risk-free.
I did not approach SinoG management, I don't think it is necessary. I tend to look for no-brainers. SinoG is a no brainer. It is 1.5% of my position at the moment.
I agree with you that some people are probably more familiar with SinoG than I am, but it makes it all the sadder. It is akin to looking at the trees and ignoring the woods. By stripping out VAT receivables and tax refunds, growth in A/R is more ludicrous.
I think the Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question.
Hi Bluedogmeow
Just want to check with you. Is your 1.5% long or short position? and what is the cash value of your position?
Cheers
oldman9
Side topic, I thought the son looked familiar.. Until I saw that the family owns mermaid maritime as well.
Not vested in either... Too complicated a scenario for my taste.
Sent from my D5503 using Tapatalk
I encourage opinions/views with supporting numbers, if feasible, otherwise it may just casual statements, which doesn't benefit anyone, even the opinions/views are right at the end of the day.
Sino probably the most controversial stock, not only in VB, but in most investing forums.
Regards
Moderator
^^ The "good thing" about SinoG is that the controversy will end in next 6 weeks starting next week, together with Greece payment deadline
There are many other controversial stocks that we can argue until cows come home and no conclusion cause no catalysts
Actually the info and facts had been well stated here for nearly a year. By now most VBs would have already formed a view and positioned (or avoided). Show-me-the-money binary event will HELP to determine reality as cashflow is almost always real. "Cash" in bank and cash use for payments ie cashflows are different.
The quality of earnings takes into account of all factors, not just GAAP/IFRS earnings. Take for example two businesses which have long-dated contracts with their clients.
Company A book revenue on a percentage-of-completion basis while Company B book the entire contract on day 1.
While company B has higher profits, Company A has better earnings quality. Would you attach the same multiple, say 20x, to both company?
SinoG is similar. But more in the case of margins and cashflow.
(23-06-2015, 10:31 PM)tiongkokgor Wrote: [ -> ]Bluedogmeow,
Sino Grandness FY2013 and FY2014 profits were RMB 418 mil and RMB 467 mil respectively. 1QFY2015 profit was RMB 105 mil versus 1QFY2014 profit of RMB 73 mil.
Why do you say the company's business has very poor earnings quality?
(23-06-2015, 06:40 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ]Hey guys. Seems like my account on the forum, Sharejunction, was banned. And it seems my posts have been closely tracked and deleted, even on a new account. This forum is not as fun as you guys seem more...realistic.
In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
Also, it seems some people have been saying that I am a high school student. If that is so, I am pretty impressed by myself. Running a fund below 18.
Regards,
poopfeast420
(24-06-2015, 08:56 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:21 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 05:02 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Bluedogmeow
Have you met Sino Grandness staff or clarified with them your serious doubts about the company?
When you readily agreed with a Sharejunction forummer that collection risks existed for the RMB 121m VAT receivables and RMB 48m export tax refunds, I realised that you did not know that these are amounts owed by Government and should be risk-free.
I did not approach SinoG management, I don't think it is necessary. I tend to look for no-brainers. SinoG is a no brainer. It is 1.5% of my position at the moment.
I agree with you that some people are probably more familiar with SinoG than I am, but it makes it all the sadder. It is akin to looking at the trees and ignoring the woods. By stripping out VAT receivables and tax refunds, growth in A/R is more ludicrous.
I think the Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question.
Hi Bluedogmeow
Just want to check with you. Is your 1.5% long or short position? and what is the cash value of your position?
Cheers
oldman9
It is short. It is probably closer to 1.3% now, due to appreciation of my portfolio and devaluation of SinoG.
(24-06-2015, 11:42 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (24-06-2015, 08:56 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 06:21 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 05:02 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Bluedogmeow
Have you met Sino Grandness staff or clarified with them your serious doubts about the company?
When you readily agreed with a Sharejunction forummer that collection risks existed for the RMB 121m VAT receivables and RMB 48m export tax refunds, I realised that you did not know that these are amounts owed by Government and should be risk-free.
I did not approach SinoG management, I don't think it is necessary. I tend to look for no-brainers. SinoG is a no brainer. It is 1.5% of my position at the moment.
I agree with you that some people are probably more familiar with SinoG than I am, but it makes it all the sadder. It is akin to looking at the trees and ignoring the woods. By stripping out VAT receivables and tax refunds, growth in A/R is more ludicrous.
I think the Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question.
Hi Bluedogmeow
Just want to check with you. Is your 1.5% long or short position? and what is the cash value of your position?
Cheers
oldman9
It is short. It is probably closer to 1.3% now, due to appreciation of my portfolio and devaluation of SinoG.
Hi Bluedogmeow,
Is it in hundreds of thousands or million dollars? And what price did you short it at? Thanks.
Cheers
Oldman9.
(24-06-2015, 03:07 AM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: [ -> ] (23-06-2015, 10:30 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]BlueDogMeow,
Your claim that you need not check with Sino before passing remarks on the company is startling.
Your point that "Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question" is a wild statement not backed up by any anlysis.
Have you studied Huiyuan's accounts?
Q2 & Q3 are quarters which have liquidity events. Unless it is able to refinance, and at way difference terms, the only way SinoG is able to meet the debt is through the harvesting of its working capital, or more specifically, accounts receivables. I guess another way is by drawing down on suppliers credit, but that is just changing a long term financial debt to a short term operational debt, which is bad and non-recurring. So again, the only way is to harvest its accounts receivables.
Since the bear case rests on the fact that SinoG A/R is "unharvestable" to put it nicely, the inability to repay the debt through the harvesting of A/R is a validation.
Bludogmeow
Thank you for your prediction that Sino will run into difficulty in 2Q.
Your prediction is based on the premise that Sino's balance sheet does not reflect its actual financial position.
I have asked whether you had studied Huiyuan accounts. Have you?
(24-06-2015, 10:46 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]^^ The "good thing" about SinoG is that the controversy will end in next 6 weeks starting next week, together with Greece payment deadline There are many other controversial stocks that we can argue until cows come home and no conclusion cause no catalysts
Actually the info and facts had been well stated here for nearly a year. By now most VBs would have already formed a view and positioned (or avoided). Show-me-the-money binary event will HELP to determine reality as cashflow is almost always real. "Cash" in bank and cash use for payments ie cashflows are different.
agree completely with specuvestor on this one.
Loosely translated chinese saying : "when the road is long, we will know the strength of the horse(SG). Over many days, we will see the heart of the person(Mgt)"
-n v-