Since this is my first serious post after a long time I thought I'll put on something that I am familiar with, as I continue to be intrigued by this s-chip
(03-03-2015, 08:48 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]As for sino-grandness i am intrigued as an observer because on one hand we have 1) SHK 2) delay in IPO 3) large debt commitment 4) large working capital 5) anecdotal evidence that the drink is not widely consumed or distributed to be sizable compared to huiyan; but on the other hand we have 1) Goldman 2) non redemption of CB in sept 2014 3) TTA investment
Firstly to declare my bias:
1) I had been posting in this thread from 4Q14 to 1H15 so I assume I am somewhat familiar with the company
2) Disregarding the "hahaha" remarks I think Boon is a very detailed investor as evidenced from other threads. So we should take that into context. He is a VB and not a fly-by-night operator
3) I had thought the authority on this thread in terms of information is portuser and I still think so.
(03-04-2015, 07:39 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Actually it is obvious that garden fresh actually have a business. The question is whether the sales can be as high as indicated. It is not as binary as some seemed to imply
Problem is the structure of SinoGrandness exchange bond is very reliant on the the IPO, effectively making it an all or nothing, which many VBs are concerned. Portuser has a good analysis but based on the premise that the cash flows are correct. This is where the binary nature lies
Looking at the past posts, I think portuser is stating what are information while Boon is talking more forensic. Both are needed for us to make a judgement call. As to positive "interest expense" it is as possible as positive tax expense. They are on accrual and estimate basis and my "guess" is the "writeback" is due to the "pending" IPO happening soon. I use "pending" because it had been "pending" for past 2 years, even before the SHK CB matured and the creation of Cayman / HK entity.
There lies my intrigue with the CBs. How do the auditors even know how to value these CBs when they have matured? Does anyone knows what is the status of these CBs? Matured? Defaulted? Restructured? Seems like it has just been conveniently rolled over like a revolver with no maturity date. I've never seen anything like this before... can someone confirm as I could be uninformed since I hadn't follow it for past 8 months or so.
The argument is of course CB holders wants to convert into GF stock... but do they have the right to exercise that "option" when the call already expired? I turned more positive on SinoG when the Chairman said they have cash and are going to pay back both CBs during the AGM last year. I think it would be huge positive if they do that cause it shows they have real cold hard cash and 2ndly it benefits SinoG shareholders not to share their crown jewel. From their cashflow statement it seems they haven't even started paying CB interest in cold hard cash.
But it didn't happen. To paraphrase Keynes, when facts change what do you do sir? Let's just assume if you are the CB holder and you have not seen anything come out of the CB, not even cashflow... what would you do? If for argument sake, say you know there is no cash, would you dance?
So i remain intrigued: The mgt has not been credible past few years but credible investors had sunk money in, including Goldman book running the CB (which is actually EB, Exchangeable Bond) and CB holders holding out (based on whatever unknown legality).
What I am keen to know is who are the sponsors and auditor for the IPO? Thanks
NB Anyone looking at the results should ask what is "Deposit paid for non-current assets"... anyone expecting these capex? They also assumed a maturity date in their results to do the computation.