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why sino grandness share price raised so much today?

Hi

Good to see some price movement yesterday. But waited too long for this. My old mind guess is, IPO is on the way.

Also to me, it is not clear how soon other loquat juice producers will pose a threat to Garden Fresh, given that entry barrier is low. Will Garden fresh still be number 1 brand for loquat juice say in 3 to 5 years?

If Mr Huang does not manage the business well, will it go the way like Huiyuan? Huiyuan I think is declining and business getting poorer by the day.

Comments please. Thank you.

cheers
oldman

(30-12-2015, 09:55 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ].................it is not clear how soon other loquat juice producers will pose a threat to Garden Fresh, given that entry barrier is low. Will Garden fresh still be number 1 brand for loquat juice say in 3 to 5 years?

..........................

ttp://www.scimao.com/read/2361847 (surfaced by Tiongkokgor in #1039 on 26 Dec) has several important points.

If Garden Fresh were to sell juices made from common fruits such as apple, pear or grape, failure would have been certain in the face of challenge by beverage behemoths such as Tingyi, Uni-president and Minute Maid. 

Loquat juice come into being only recently, in 2010, due to the lack of deep-processing technology in China (由于中国枇杷深加工技术和产业缺乏资源整合支持，除枇杷果、枇杷糖等初级产品外，枇杷的深度开发在中国几乎一片空白).

Huang shares that besides coming out with loquat juice that needs no preservatives, Garden Fresh also secures loquat supply (鲜绿园不仅研发了不含添加剂的健康、绿色饮品，还投入大笔资金掌控着枇杷果的上游供应、加工环节的产业链条，形成了以枇杷汁为核心竞争力的独特产业优势，这样的优势也是传统饮料巨头所不具备的。)

New products are unlikely to attract the attention of distributors. However, as loquat is known for its therapeutic efficacy, the first-ever loquat juice by Garden Fresh stood a chance. Smogs may have also driven up demand as loquat juice soothes the throats. (饮料行业进入门槛低，企业、产品数量繁杂，因此很多主流品类除了大品牌主导市场外，产品同质化、市场过分饱和也成为经销商之痛。因而选择介入新品类，对于经销商而言是一种趋利避害的有利选择。另一方面，像鲜绿园这样的枇杷果汁饮料，本身具备了枇杷清肺润燥的产品概念，在中国遭受雾霾侵扰之际，也蕴含着对清肺饮品的巨大市场需求，也直接成就了鲜绿园这两年成功的在华东、华南和华北地区形成了快速有效的市场布局，提升了产品的销量增速。)

China is the largest loquat producer, accounting for 83% of global output according to chapter 1 of prr.hec.gov.pk/Chapters/364S-1.pdf.  Shortage of loquat outside China could be the reason for beverage giants in the West not noticing the potential.  

Garden Fresh seems set on maintaining, or even widening its existing leadership in the loquat juice sector. It expands sales, steps up advertising, enhances presence of loquat juice in Hong Kong (where it plans to list), and builds new factories to reduce reliance on outsourcing. 

These efforts improve valuation of Garden Fresh, but at the expense of conserving cash to redeem the convertible bonds. 

Is Garden Fresh throwing caution to the wind, or is it betting on a successful listing, in which event bondholders will forego redemption to opt for Garden Fresh shares?

(31-12-2015, 02:26 PM)portuser Wrote: [ -> ]

(30-12-2015, 09:55 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ].................it is not clear how soon other loquat juice producers will pose a threat to Garden Fresh, given that entry barrier is low. Will Garden fresh still be number 1 brand for loquat juice say in 3 to 5 years?

..........................

ttp://www.scimao.com/read/2361847 (surfaced by Tiongkokgor in #1039 on 26 Dec) has several important points.

If Garden Fresh were to sell juices made from common fruits such as apple, pear or grape, failure would have been certain in the face of challenge by beverage behemoths such as Tingyi, Uni-president and Minute Maid. 

Loquat juice come into being only recently, in 2010, due to the lack of deep-processing technology in China (由于中国枇杷深加工技术和产业缺乏资源整合支持，除枇杷果、枇杷糖等初级产品外，枇杷的深度开发在中国几乎一片空白).

Huang shares that besides coming out with loquat juice that needs no preservatives, Garden Fresh also secures loquat supply (鲜绿园不仅研发了不含添加剂的健康、绿色饮品，还投入大笔资金掌控着枇杷果的上游供应、加工环节的产业链条，形成了以枇杷汁为核心竞争力的独特产业优势，这样的优势也是传统饮料巨头所不具备的。)

New products are unlikely to attract the attention of distributors. However, as loquat is known for its therapeutic efficacy, the first-ever loquat juice by Garden Fresh stood a chance. Smogs may have also driven up demand as loquat juice soothes the throats. (饮料行业进入门槛低，企业、产品数量繁杂，因此很多主流品类除了大品牌主导市场外，产品同质化、市场过分饱和也成为经销商之痛。因而选择介入新品类，对于经销商而言是一种趋利避害的有利选择。另一方面，像鲜绿园这样的枇杷果汁饮料，本身具备了枇杷清肺润燥的产品概念，在中国遭受雾霾侵扰之际，也蕴含着对清肺饮品的巨大市场需求，也直接成就了鲜绿园这两年成功的在华东、华南和华北地区形成了快速有效的市场布局，提升了产品的销量增速。)

China is the largest loquat producer, accounting for 83% of global output according to chapter 1 of prr.hec.gov.pk/Chapters/364S-1.pdf.  Shortage of loquat outside China could be the reason for beverage giants in the West not noticing the potential.  

Garden Fresh seems set on maintaining, or even widening its existing leadership in the loquat juice sector. It expands sales, steps up advertising, enhancing presence of loquat juice in Hong Kong (where it plans to list), and builds new factories to reduce reliance on outsourcing. 

These efforts improve valuation of Garden Fresh, but at the expense of conserving cash to redeem the convertible bonds. 

Is Garden Fresh throwing caution to the wind, or is it betting on a successful listing, in which event bondholders will forego redemption to opt for Garden Fresh shares?

Why cant the loquat just redeem the bonds from collection of receivables or cashflow?

[Edited by moderator: the font size is too "loud" ("big") for constructive discussion]

(31-12-2015, 04:50 PM)chinafarmer Wrote: [ -> ]Why cant the loquat just redeem the bonds from collection of receivables or cashflow?

[Edited by moderator: the font size is too "loud" ("big") for constructive discussion]

As mentioned in my post, Garden Fresh may be confident of a successful listing, in which event bond redemption will not arise. 

Building factories to reduce reliance on outsourcing and stepping up advertising to enhance its leadership position in the loquat juice sector will improve valuation to fetch a higher issue price of Garden Fresh share if IPO materializes. 

There have been earlier suggestions of Garden Fresh overstating revenue, gross profit margin or even faking construction of factories, and such shenanigans have escaped the attention of the investors from Thailand and the IPO professionals.  

In what ways could Sino Grandness have concocted payment in company tax totaling RMB 626 m between 2011 and the first nine months of 2015?

..............................RMB m

2011............................59
2012..........................110
2013..........................139
2014..........................185
9 months of 2015........133
Sum..........................626

Advertising and promotions amounted to RMB 200m in 2014, from RMB 60m in 2013. In the first 9 moths of 2015, A&P were RMB 125m higher. 

As the bulk was for payment to TV stations for staging variety shows and screening TV drama series that promote loquat juice, what is the likelihood of fabrication?

Remember China eratat

(03-01-2016, 02:25 PM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]Remember China eratat

There was a bond redemption in China Eratat and the company could not pay. Bank balances in Eratat were fabricated.

Sino Grandness paid RMB 38 mil to redeemed part of the bonds in Oct 2014 and the rest of the bondholders extended the maturity dates of the remaining bonds. No redemption have been served so far by the bondholders.

The confidence levels of the bondholders in these 2 companies are different, at least for the moment.

What are the similarities between the 2 companies?

[quote pid='124333' dateline='1451802356']

CY09Remember China eratat
[/quote]

Hi Cy09

Happy New Year.
May I know why you bring up Eratat? Bond default or failed business?

And agree that if they have the money, they should be paying of their debt.


Thank you.
Oldman

(31-12-2015, 02:26 PM)portuser Wrote: [ -> ]

(30-12-2015, 09:55 AM)Oldman9 Wrote: [ -> ].................it is not clear how soon other loquat juice producers will pose a threat to Garden Fresh, given that entry barrier is low. Will Garden fresh still be number 1 brand for loquat juice say in 3 to 5 years?

..........................

ttp://www.scimao.com/read/2361847 (surfaced by Tiongkokgor in #1039 on 26 Dec) has several important points.

If Garden Fresh were to sell juices made from common fruits such as apple, pear or grape, failure would have been certain in the face of challenge by beverage behemoths such as Tingyi, Uni-president and Minute Maid. 

Loquat juice come into being only recently, in 2010, due to the lack of deep-processing technology in China (由于中国枇杷深加工技术和产业缺乏资源整合支持，除枇杷果、枇杷糖等初级产品外，枇杷的深度开发在中国几乎一片空白).

Huang shares that besides coming out with loquat juice that needs no preservatives, Garden Fresh also secures loquat supply (鲜绿园不仅研发了不含添加剂的健康、绿色饮品，还投入大笔资金掌控着枇杷果的上游供应、加工环节的产业链条，形成了以枇杷汁为核心竞争力的独特产业优势，这样的优势也是传统饮料巨头所不具备的。)

New products are unlikely to attract the attention of distributors. However, as loquat is known for its therapeutic efficacy, the first-ever loquat juice by Garden Fresh stood a chance. Smogs may have also driven up demand as loquat juice soothes the throats. (饮料行业进入门槛低，企业、产品数量繁杂，因此很多主流品类除了大品牌主导市场外，产品同质化、市场过分饱和也成为经销商之痛。因而选择介入新品类，对于经销商而言是一种趋利避害的有利选择。另一方面，像鲜绿园这样的枇杷果汁饮料，本身具备了枇杷清肺润燥的产品概念，在中国遭受雾霾侵扰之际，也蕴含着对清肺饮品的巨大市场需求，也直接成就了鲜绿园这两年成功的在华东、华南和华北地区形成了快速有效的市场布局，提升了产品的销量增速。)

China is the largest loquat producer, accounting for 83% of global output according to chapter 1 of prr.hec.gov.pk/Chapters/364S-1.pdf.  Shortage of loquat outside China could be the reason for beverage giants in the West not noticing the potential.  

Garden Fresh seems set on maintaining, or even widening its existing leadership in the loquat juice sector. It expands sales, steps up advertising, enhances presence of loquat juice in Hong Kong (where it plans to list), and builds new factories to reduce reliance on outsourcing. 

These efforts improve valuation of Garden Fresh, but at the expense of conserving cash to redeem the convertible bonds. 

Is Garden Fresh throwing caution to the wind, or is it betting on a successful listing, in which event bondholders will forego redemption to opt for Garden Fresh shares?

Hi Portuser

Happy New Year and thanks for the info.
By the way, do you think over time,  Garden Fresh will have similar issues like Huiyuan? low or stagnated growth?

Thanks

Oldman

Dug through their actions and realise both had similarities.

Eratat made announcement that it was "accepted as sponsor for the apparel of the male cast in a movie《瘦身魔方》co-produced with Hunan Satellite TV in 2012.", held TV advertising commercials and is "nationally promoted via a weekly TV programme on a martial art called Judose"

In addition, during a period of time, Wang Lee Hom (then well known Taiwanese Singer), was their brand ambassador in 08. Eratat held runway shows too to promote their products which resulted in roaring sales. I remember singapore investors were invited to these shows (Voyage research analysts etc). On the shop front, I rmb Boon from VB was even able to take a look at its stalls in China

While i am not saying SFIG will go down this road, there are similarities

Personally, I will recommend investors of SFIG to make a trip to Hong Kong* and scan the shelves of random Wellcome/ 7-11 shops. There are many wellcome supermarkets so feel free to pick a few to visit. You may/may not be surprised

<divested>
*if you do, please buy me a large tin of jenny cookies. Thanks