(17-06-2015, 01:27 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]Few months is nothing for value investing 
we focus on business not noise and nothing much has changed to "up" the thread With the fat lady singing so it is good time to watch the space and revisit. The chances are as good as a Grexit bet
Bond maturities force companies and CFOs on their toes and revisit their financial commitments. If you look at a lot of these distressed or attacked stocks, they coincides with debt repayments. If one doesnt have to repay perpetuals, whats there to worry? Yet it creates an irony because without principal repayment and refinance, we will lose the market's input on the company's credit well being.
And that relates to cashflow. If a company has tonnes of cash but chooses to refinance debt thats due, it is a red flag. Anyone can read sinoG balance sheet conjured by auditors. However the maturity or show-me-the-money proof of pudding is these 6 weeks. Debt repayment is almost always real cause creditors dont forget
A recent example of an attacked stock that show-me-the-money is LaBiXiaoXin in HK (formerly SGX listed China lifestyle) which recently repaid their debt in February. Its a good case study reference for SinoG if they are able to pay up. Else just hope TTA will average down.
That said if SinoG dont submit A1 form to reduce cost of the CB it also speaks volume and uncertainty, albeit smaller, continues to linger. The incentive framework is clear on this.
Hi Specuvestor
As always, thank you for the reply. Much appreciated.
Cheers
Oldman9.
i can't seem to find the thread on Sharejunction. Anyone knows why it isn't there anymore ?
It has been deleted & a new post has been created but do not know why.
(19-06-2015, 03:39 PM)crubs Wrote: [ -> ]i can't seem to find the thread on Sharejunction. Anyone knows why it isn't there anymore ?
I remembered a forummer Bluedogmeow, mentioned that the company is committing accounting and business frauds. This could be one of the reasons.
Now that the convertible bonds are very near to their expiry dates, what can the company do? A Feb 2015 analyst report from Maybank Kim Eng suggested the company may issue 30% more equities to repay the bondholders.
(19-06-2015, 04:54 PM)lohkh Wrote: [ -> ]It has been deleted & a new post has been created but do not know why.
(19-06-2015, 03:39 PM)crubs Wrote: [ -> ]i can't seem to find the thread on Sharejunction. Anyone knows why it isn't there anymore ?
(22-06-2015, 09:35 AM)tiongkokgor Wrote: [ -> ]I remembered a forummer Bluedogmeow, mentioned that the company is committing accounting and business frauds. This could be one of the reasons.
Now that the convertible bonds are very near to their expiry dates, what can the company do? A Feb 2015 analyst report from Maybank Kim Eng suggested the company may issue 30% more equities to repay the bondholders.
(19-06-2015, 04:54 PM)lohkh Wrote: [ -> ]It has been deleted & a new post has been created but do not know why.
(19-06-2015, 03:39 PM)crubs Wrote: [ -> ]i can't seem to find the thread on Sharejunction. Anyone knows why it isn't there anymore ?
"A Feb 2015 analyst report from Maybank Kim Eng suggested the company may issue 30% more equities to repay the bondholders."..dont think there is any chance of that happening now. Too late ..but from the looks of it, the company does have the means to pay the bondholders be it partially or fully (with loans from local bank).
(22-06-2015, 09:35 AM)tiongkokgor Wrote: [ -> ]Now that the convertible bonds are very near to their expiry dates, what can the company do? A Feb 2015 analyst report from Maybank Kim Eng suggested the company may issue 30% more equities to repay the bondholders.
Placement shares have to be issued to unrelated party, to the disadvantage of Mr Prayudh.
Before taking stake in Sino Grandness, he must have assessed that the company has the means to redeem the bonds.
Hey guys. Seems like my account on the forum, Sharejunction, was banned. And it seems my posts have been closely tracked and deleted, even on a new account. This forum is not as fun as you guys seem more...realistic.
In the other forum, someone said that SinoG has been paying millions in IPO fees since 2013. In my experience, spinoff doesn't usually take that long. Tribune Media spun off Tribune Publishing in less than 2 months. BHP spun off South32 within 1 year, and the same for Windstream and CSAL. It is a huge red flag that SinoG refuses to divulge the firm that will be helping the company spin off its beverage assets, even after two years and spending some much in fees.
Even if SinoG is legit, it sure as hell is a business with very poor earnings quality.
@ Leeta: I have never said anything about inventories, only accounts receivables. Also, competition is not local. It is global. What is stopping me from contracting the vegetable canning job to another country? The companies SinoG supplies to has thin margins. If I am Lidi and have the choice between buying canned vegetables @$1.50 versus one from Myanmar or India @$1.20, I will definitely take the India alternative. Vegetable canning is not rocket science...and assuming a $2 selling price, I just increase my gross profit per can from $0.50 to $0.80.
Also, it seems some people have been saying that I am a high school student. If that is so, I am pretty impressed by myself. Running a fund below 18.
Regards,
poopfeast420
Welcome to our VB. I didn't follow Sharejunction forum, thus I have no idea the reason for the banning.
I am a moderator of VB. A friendly reminder, we respect IP here. We don't accept unfounded accusation. Facts or reasonable reasoning is required for serious accusation.
Thank for participating in our VB experience. I wish we will have a good time here.
Regards
Moderator
Bluedogmeow
Have you met Sino Grandness staff or clarified with them your serious doubts about the company?
When you readily agreed with a Sharejunction forummer that collection risks existed for the RMB 121m VAT receivables and RMB 48m export tax refunds, I realised that you did not know that these are amounts owed by Government and should be risk-free.
(23-06-2015, 05:02 PM)Young Investor Wrote: [ -> ]Bluedogmeow
Have you met Sino Grandness staff or clarified with them your serious doubts about the company?
When you readily agreed with a Sharejunction forummer that collection risks existed for the RMB 121m VAT receivables and RMB 48m export tax refunds, I realised that you did not know that these are amounts owed by Government and should be risk-free.
I did not approach SinoG management, I don't think it is necessary. I tend to look for no-brainers. SinoG is a no brainer. It is 1.5% of my position at the moment.
I agree with you that some people are probably more familiar with SinoG than I am, but it makes it all the sadder. It is akin to looking at the trees and ignoring the woods. By stripping out VAT receivables and tax refunds, growth in A/R is more ludicrous.
I think the Q2 & especially Q3 results will be instructive as it would push SinoG to the point where it has to harvest its working capital. Failure to do so will put the balance sheet into question.