I am in act8, probably scare into inactivity. Unable to decide whether to be fearful or greedy. Just taking consolation that dividend will continue in next few quarters. On hindsight, kick myself for not making a stand, to buy more or sell out. Need to learn to tough up to take a stand, regardless of outcome, in the presence of such rare price volatity.
As we often say, it ain't over till the fat lady sing
and for us it ain't over till our position is closed
History is important to the extent of reviewing how we could have done better. We are in the biz of predicting the future else we should be accountants
we are long term investor and I'm sure we can review this again in 6 months. We have different interpretation on the events which the AR probably can give better clarity as well as prospects. Act 8 is definitely not the end of this opera
Nick's fat lady has sung. IMHO his analysis and execution is sound. UMS has fundamentals hence we are discussing this in detail. I've learnt through the years to avoid specky stocks and cultivated the discipline to disregard them even if they quadrupled.
If FA is ALL that matters, share prices shouldn't move daily
our decision is with these information what we do about it, or do nothing, for what timeline
(02-08-2014, 05:53 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ] (02-08-2014, 03:05 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]^^^ It's not really an experiment but I enjoy a live demonstration rather than 纸上谈兵 And I believe Nick knows what I am talking about. IMHO Nick is wrong on his 1/3 sale in the short run, but if we are talking about long run opportunity cost and risk control, he is most likely right. OTOH there can be those that get the FA wrong but the positioning right. You can be both right and wrong at the same time, depending on your timeline.
Similarly my interest and updates on the Argentina debt default. On hindside things always looks easy (see my avatar), only when you are involved in a LIVE event then one will know the issues involved.
FA is the basis of all investments, but timing and catalysts are selective to improve returns, as FA USUALLY doesn't change so fast.
With the benefit of hindsight,
Those who had sold all his/her stakes just before ex-bonus date would have maximized his/her profit – the price was at the highest – (act 1).
After the disclosure of AMAT’s selling and after ex-bonus, while the knife was still falling
Those who had sold on the next day or two were doing not too bad either – but one still stuck with the bonus issues – as they had yet to be accredited at that time – (Act 2).
Vested or not vested – those who were dared to “short” - before the “falling knife” had stopped falling - would have had make money as well – (Act 3).
After the bonus share had been issued, and the “falling knife” had stopped falling (in range bound situation),
Those who had only decided to sell all his/her stakes (original shares + bonus) then, were the worst performers - (Act 4)
After the price has rebounded to above 60 cents now,
Those who had sold off their bonus shares earlier (before the rebound) would probably have regretted now – (Act 5)
Those who are still holding on to their bonus shares seem to be the right choice, in the short run – (Act 6).
Those who had bought in at the tail-end of the falling knife and before the recent rebound are sitting on paper profit of about 10% - (Act 7).
Those who have not sold his/her shares since – are somewhere in between – (Act 8)
In summary,
- the right course of actions to be taken seemed to be: Act 2, Act 3, Act 6 & Act 7
- the wrong course of actions seemed to be Act 4 and Act 5
- Act 8 is somewhere in between.
Right or Wrong - be it short run or long run – could only be known Ex-Post (after the fact) – Before the fact (Ex-ante), who knows if it will turn out to be right or wrong?
(vested)
As long as you are convinced, confident, who are we to say that you are confused... win or lose I think most buddies here enjoys the utility generated through the process of analysing and anticipating the confluence of events.
concluded Loss on UMS, Divested
GG
VB consists of buddies - many of whom have contributed positively to the forum.
As nobody is perfect, each of us has his/her own strengths and weaknesses.
For a given event, sometimes, one could see what other buddies fail to see – at times, one fails to see what other buddies could see.
A conviction to one could be a confusion to others, and vice versa.
convex could be easily mistaken to be concave, at times.
To convince or not to convince ?
To confuse or not to confuse ?
To be convinced or to be confused ?
Is it a concern ?
It is not a concern，as long as it is being conducted in a constructive manner.
It is not a concern, as long as it is consistantly and conscientiously being contended in the spirit of sharing and learning from each other.
And I don’t see how this spirit has been violated in anyway.
Also, there is this concept which embraces confusion as part of the learning process – which I strongly subscribe to.
I don't see it is in anyone's interest if this "game" of convincing and confusion were to be discontinued - IMO, in the spirit of sharing and learning it should be continued.
confused or convinced - ultimately, one should draw his/her own conclusion in one's investment decision making - and be fully responsible for its consequences.
Let’s confront and continue to ENJOY this learning process – what is there to lose ?
Oh-Oh ! No prior consent has been obtain from GG for writing in "con-style" – violation of IP – Ha-ha!
(vested)
Salute. Boon, you have convincingly summarised the consultative spirit of VB Forum.
GG
(03-08-2014, 02:40 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]VB consists of buddies - many of whom have contributed positively to the forum.
As nobody is perfect, each of us has his/her own strengths and weaknesses.
For a given event, sometimes, one could see what other buddies fail to see – at times, one fails to see what other buddies could see.
A conviction to one could be a confusion to others, and vice versa.
convex could be easily mistaken to be concave, at times.
To convince or not to convince ?
To confuse or not to confuse ?
To be convinced or to be confused ?
Is it a concern ?
It is not a concern，as long as it is being conducted in a constructive manner.
It is not a concern, as long as it is consistantly and conscientiously being contended in the spirit of sharing and learning from each other.
And I don’t see how this spirit has been violated in anyway.
Also, there is this concept which embraces confusion as part of the learning process – which I strongly subscribe to.
I don't see it is in anyone's interest if this "game" of convincing and confusion were to be discontinued - IMO, in the spirit of sharing and learning it should be continued.
confused or convinced - ultimately, one should draw his/her own conclusion in one's investment decision making - and be fully responsible for its consequences.
Let’s confront and continue to ENJOY this learning process – what is there to lose ?
Oh-Oh ! No prior consent has been obtain from GG for writing in "con-style" – violation of IP – Ha-ha!
(vested)
Global Semiconductor Industry on Pace for Record Sales Through First Half of 2014
Sales up across every region and nearly all product categories compared to last year; Americas region shows strongest growth
Published Monday, August 4, 2014 4:00 pm
by Dan Rosso
WASHINGTON—Aug. 4, 2014—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and design, today announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $82.7 billion during the second quarter of 2014, an increase of 5.4 percent over the previous quarter and a jump of 10.8 percent compared to the second quarter of 2013.
Global sales for the month of June 2014 reached $27.57 billion, marking the industry’s highest monthly sales ever. June’s sales were 10.8 percent higher than the June 2013 total of $24.88 billion and 2.6 percent more than last month’s total of $26.86 billion. Year-to-date sales during the first half of 2014 were 11.1 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2013, which was a record year for semiconductor revenues. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.
“
Through the first half of 2014, the global semiconductor market has demonstrated consistent, across-the-board growth, with the Americas region continuing to show particular strength,” said Brian Toohey, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “The industry posted its highest-ever second quarter sales and outperformed the latest World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) sales forecast. Looking forward, macroeconomic indicators – including solid U.S. GDP growth announced last week – bode well for continued growth in the second half of 2014 and beyond.”
Regionally, sales were up compared to last month in the Americas (4.9 percent), Asia Pacific (2.1 percent), Japan (2.1 percent), and Europe (1.9 percent). Compared to June 2013, sales increased in the Americas (12.1 percent), Europe (12.1 percent), Asia Pacific (10.5 percent), and Japan (8.5 percent). All four regional markets have posted better year-to-date sales through the first half of 2014 than they did through the same point last year.
http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2014/...f_of_2014/
June 2014 chart and graph
http://www.semiconductors.org/clientuplo...elease.pdf
(vested)
Div maintained at 1ct after issue 1 for 4bonus shares.
UMS REPORTS 21% INCREASE IN NET PROFIT TO
S$15.8 MILLION IN 1H2014; DECLARES INTERIM
DIVIDEND OF S$0.01 PER SHARE
Highlights
• 1H2014 revenue increased by 4% to S$63.0 million from S$60.7 million a year
ago.
• The Group continued to demonstrate good cash generation ability with healthy
net cash and cash equivalents of S$31.1 million as at 30 June 2014 after
dividend payment of S$12.0 million in 1H2014.
• UMS maintain quarterly dividend of S$0.01 per share after the 1 for 4 bonus
share issue during 2Q14.
(03-08-2014, 05:42 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: [ -> ]Salute. Boon, you have convincingly summarised the consultative spirit of VB Forum.
GG
(03-08-2014, 02:40 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]VB consists of buddies - many of whom have contributed positively to the forum.
As nobody is perfect, each of us has his/her own strengths and weaknesses.
For a given event, sometimes, one could see what other buddies fail to see – at times, one fails to see what other buddies could see.
A conviction to one could be a confusion to others, and vice versa.
convex could be easily mistaken to be concave, at times.
To convince or not to convince ?
To confuse or not to confuse ?
To be convinced or to be confused ?
Is it a concern ?
It is not a concern，as long as it is being conducted in a constructive manner.
It is not a concern, as long as it is consistantly and conscientiously being contended in the spirit of sharing and learning from each other.
And I don’t see how this spirit has been violated in anyway.
Also, there is this concept which embraces confusion as part of the learning process – which I strongly subscribe to.
I don't see it is in anyone's interest if this "game" of convincing and confusion were to be discontinued - IMO, in the spirit of sharing and learning it should be continued.
confused or convinced - ultimately, one should draw his/her own conclusion in one's investment decision making - and be fully responsible for its consequences.
Let’s confront and continue to ENJOY this learning process – what is there to lose ?
Oh-Oh ! No prior consent has been obtain from GG for writing in "con-style" – violation of IP – Ha-ha!
(vested)
What with the capitalized "con"?
2Q2014 / 1H2014 Results:
Revenue (SGD million）:
1Q2013 = 27.845
2Q2013 = 32.821 ; ( 1H2013 = 60.666 )
3Q2013 = 25.357
4Q2013 = 34.445 ; ( 2H2013 = 59.802 )
1Q2014 = 34.309
2Q2014 = 28.689 ; ( 1H2014 = 62.998 )
NPAT (SGD million):
1Q2013 = 5.256
2Q2013 = 7.837 ; ( 1H2013 = 13.093 )
3Q2013 = 4.809
4Q2013 = 10.978 ; ( 2H2013 = 15.787 )
1Q2014 = 8.558
2Q2014 = 7.229 ; ( 1H2014 = 15.787)
Gross Profit Margin :
1Q2013 = 49%
2Q2013 = 50%
3Q2013 = 53%
4Q2013 = 63%
1Q2013 = 53%
2Q2014 = 57%
Net Profit Margin :
1Q2013 = 19%
2Q2013 = 24%
3Q2013 = 19%
4Q2013 = 32%
1Q2014 = 24.9%
2Q2014 = 25.2%
FCF Generated (SGD million):
1Q2013 = 6.4
2Q2013 = 7.3 (1H2013 = 13.7 )
3Q2013 = 6.3
4Q2013 = 5.8 ( 2H2013= 12.1)
1Q2014 = 10.3
2Q2014 = 3.9 ( 1H2014 = 14.2 )
Cash & Cash Equivalent (SGD million)
1Q2013 = 28.448 (debt = 2.035)
2Q2013 = 27.406
3Q2013 = 30.134
4Q2013 = 29.236
1Q2014 = 39.511
2Q2014 = 36.113 (debt = 5.000) ; Net Cash = 31.113
Comments:
1) Mediocre quarterly results (Revenue ; NPAT & FCF generated) following two strong previous quarters – but on 6-monthly-basis, corresponding 1H2014 figures are very respectable.
2) Quarterly Gross and Net Margin of 57% & 25% respectively remain healthy.
3) With so much cash – I wonder why they take on bank borrowing of 5 million.
4) Net cash of 31.113 million (equivalent to SGD 7.2 cents per share) - after paying out 12.0 million in dividend.
5) Has spent 4.209 million on PPE in 1H2014 – expects to spend 1.5 million in 2H in replacing older equipment.
6) Moving into 3Q, Management expects demand to dip before picking up in 4Q..
(vested)
UMS sold down to 57 this morning.
Wonder if Andy contributes to the selling again....