ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

(21-08-2013, 09:43 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at the 'New Normal", it can be comforting to see a seemingly seasonal trend for the past 3 years. Using the BB ratio,

[Image: 5ycm82.jpg]

But, as highlighted by Nick in a much earlier post, we should also look at the Billing trend,

[Image: 25s8t4j.jpg]

Not as comforting... to see lower peaks... Perhaps need a stronger US recovery + an Europe recovery to counter potential recession in Asia?

Looks like a downtrend for semicon now. Good chance to pick up some lots when share price dip below 50 cents.

Smartphone tech almost mature now.. I don't see how they can improve the GPU or CPU performance without at least some air cooling which would make the size too big. If you look at samsung S4 its only small incremental improvements every year since the S2. Even new Snapdragon 800 chip coming out for new S4 is just slightly faster and still quad-core.

Anyways for UMS cashflow will be ok for this year at least.

(21-08-2013, 10:10 AM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]

(21-08-2013, 10:00 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Digitimes Research: Global smartphone shipments to reach 950 million in 2013

I never understand why people are changing their smartphones so often. A well-built smartphone can last a few years without any problem and smartphone is not exactly a cheap device.

Is current estimate of smartphone shipments really logical?

habit that the telcos build up. its sickening and now they are suffering because they want to reduce the subsidies now that 3G and 4G have taken off but couldn't as they will lose customers.

Vodafone tried. didnt work.

but they will keep trying.

think the resistance is not only from consumers, but phone vendors e.g. Apple/Samsung/HTC etc. Maybe need regulatory to push telecom to simply provide services instead of products. Then smartphones will just go the way of PC.

To consumers, it is really a waste of money(more money spent on subscription plan) and resource(2nd hand electronics piled up)

(21-08-2013, 10:00 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Digitimes Research: Global smartphone shipments to reach 950 million in 2013

I never understand why people are changing their smartphones so often. A well-built smartphone can last a few years without any problem and smartphone is not exactly a cheap device.

Is current estimate of smartphone shipments really logical?

It is not entirely due to real demand, but largely due to telco's subsidies, at least in Singapore market.

One family of 4, with 4 subscribed plans, will have a "free" phone every 6 months, regardless of needs. The old phones are laying around at home as backups or "toys".

Sustainable? Well, a "free lunch" is very "sustainable" IMO...

(not vested)

(21-08-2013, 10:00 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Digitimes Research: Global smartphone shipments to reach 950 million in 2013

I never understand why people are changing their smartphones so often. A well-built smartphone can last a few years without any problem and smartphone is not exactly a cheap device.

Is current estimate of smartphone shipments really logical?

Projections by IDC, Gartner and Deloitte are in similar range - close to a billion. I guess we just have to wait and see.
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Smartphones Expected to Grow 32.7% in 2013 Fueled By Declining Prices and Strong Emerging Market Demand, According to IDC

04 Jun 2013

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., June 4, 2013 – According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 32.7% year over year in 2013 reaching 958.8 million units, up from 722.5 million units last year. 2013 will mark the first year that smartphone shipments surpass those of feature phones, with smartphones expected to account for 52.2% of all mobile phone shipments worldwide. This trend will continue for years to come as demand for mobile data and handheld computing spreads across both developed and emerging markets. Emerging markets will account for 64.8% of all smartphones shipped during 2013, which is up from 43.1% in 2010………………..

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24143513

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1B smartphones will be shipped worldwide this year: Gartner

http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/r...15100.html

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Smartphones ship a billion but usage becomes simpler

In 2013, Deloitte predicts that global shipments of smartphones should exceed one billion units for the first time. The number…………………….

http://www.deloitte.co.uk/tmtpredictions...a-billion/

(vested)

(21-08-2013, 11:04 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ]

(21-08-2013, 10:00 AM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Digitimes Research: Global smartphone shipments to reach 950 million in 2013

I never understand why people are changing their smartphones so often. A well-built smartphone can last a few years without any problem and smartphone is not exactly a cheap device.

Is current estimate of smartphone shipments really logical?

It is not entirely due to real demand, but largely due to telco's subsidies, at least in Singapore market.

One family of 4, with 4 subscribed plans, will have a "free" phone every 6 months, regardless of needs. The old phones are laying around at home as backups or "toys".

Sustainable? Well, a "free lunch" is very "sustainable" IMO...

(not vested)

Agree. It is the business model. You pay the same subscription even if you do not take a new phone after 21 months. The model is sustainable as the subsidy is priced into the monthly subscription. But I agree it is really a very broken model from the perspective of "waste". There are people who "arbitrage" by getting the new phones and selling them.

Similar psychology is found in car buyers that change cars every 5 years, which IMHO is even more senseless in a "waste" and financial point of view.

Secondly a phone is a fashion, pride symbol because it is very visible. To a much lesser extend for the NB and not so much for the PC. The consumer behaviour is very different.

Intel to launch new tablet platforms, smartphone SoC

Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 21 August 2013]

Intel will launch new tablet platforms, 14nm Cherry Trail in the third quarter and 14nm Willow Trail in the fourth quarter of 2014, as well as new smartphone SoC, 22nm Merrifield, at the end of 2013, Moorefield in the first half of 2014 and 14nm Morganfield in the first quarter of 2015, according to Taiwan-based makers.

The sources pointed out that the Merrifield will have a performance boost of about 50% and a longer battery life compared to Intel's existing smartphone platform Clover Trail+.

Intel is already set to unveil its 22nm Bay Trail-based processors with the Silvermont architecture at the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) from September 10-12 and will later release its Bay Trail-T processors for tablets, supporting both Windows 8.1 and Android 4.2, the sources said.

The Bay Trail-T platform also adopts the Silvermont architecture and supports a battery life over eight hours when active and weeks while idling. The Bay Trail-T will have two clock speed specifications, 1.8GHz and 2.4GHz and a Gen 7 GPU, the sources noted.

Intel will distribute its Cherry Trail samples to partners at the end of 2013, unveil the platform at Computex 2014, in June and announce the CPUs in the third quarter of 2014. The Cherry Trail features Intel's 14nm Airmont architecture with a clock speed of 2.7GHz and a GEN 8 GPU.

The Willow Trail & Derivatives series will adopt Intel's 14nm Goldmont architecture with a Gen9 GPU, supporting both Windows and Android operating systems.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130821PD203.html

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Semiconductor Growth Continue Through Balance

Written by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D. Friday, 02 August 2013

http://www.smithweb.com/en/201308021279/...hQ0tzmS3IU
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Semiconductor Sales Increase, Outperform Industry Forecast »

Wednesday 7th August 2013

http://www.siliconsemiconductor.net/arti...recast.php

Interesting developments in the Flash Memory chips sector.

1) It is estimated that 2D-NAND flash might be able to scale close to 10 nm lithography before many NAND flash companies move to 3D NAND flash cell structures.
2) However, Samsung has jumped the gun on other NAND flash companies in 3D NAND flash - Samsung has announced the mass production of first 3D-NAND chips.
3) What is RRAM from Crossbar ?

High Profile NAND And Emerging Memories
Aug/10/2013
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomcoughlin/...-memories/
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4) Is Samsung AMAT’s first customer to ramp from 2D planar to 3D NAND?

Samsung produces first 3D NAND, aims to boost densities, drive lower cost per GB
By Joel Hruska on August 6, 2013
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/163...ost-per-gb
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5) This is interesting stuff from Crossbar - how big a treat is RRAM ? Only time will tell. Regardless, a chip is still a chip - it still needs to be manufactured in a fab with semiconductor equipments.

Crossbar says it will kill the $60B flash memory market with Resistive RAM, which stores a terabyte on a chip
http://venturebeat.com/2013/08/05/crossb...Yp7jmqY.99

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6) AMAT’s advantage in 3D NAND.

Winning in 3D NAND - AMAT

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/sites/de...082013.pdf

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7) It appears to me that Samsung is AMAT’s first customer in ramping from 2D planar to 3D NAND.
8) AMAT expects to gain market share as more manufacturers adopt this technology.

Extracts from Analysts Briefing with focuss on 3D NAND – 3Q2013 Results (AMAT)

“Applied is uniquely positioned to enable next generation transistors and interconnects 3D memory

Unit growths of mobile devices is also driving healthy demand for NAND flash memory and bit (ph) growth for 2013 is expected to be in the 40% to 50% range. The transition of 3D NAND technology into production is underway and we expect investment to accelerate in 2014 and 2015 as more manufacturers adopt this technology.

Looking ahead two inflections that will have a positive impact on our business in 2014 are foundries transiting to the 20 nanometer node and first generation 3D NAND, these new devices are very positive for Applied because the performance gains are enabled by our leadership and precision materials engineering. They grow our available market and we are in a strong position to gain share when these new devices ramp into volume manufacturing. As foundries move to 20 nanometer technology Applied served market opportunity grows approximately 25% relative to the 28 nanometer baselines.

In memory the 3D NAND inflection also leverages our leadership and precision materials engineering. With the transition from planar to 3D NAND the performance gains are driven by deposition and etch and as a result we expect our available market to grow by about 25% for first generation 3D NAND devices.
Another positive trend in 3D NAND is the adoption of EPI and thermal products, two areas where we have clear and sustainable differentiation. Overall we have a strong position in 3D NAND and anticipate our served market and share will grow as these factories ramp into volume production.

Question-and-Answer Session

Question: John Pitzer - Credit Suisse Securities

At Analyst Day, you also talked about some development tools of record of 3D NAND and some in the last couple of weeks. Give us a little more insight into the 3D NAND performance metric that at the (inaudible) this week, I am kind of curious as if the (inaudible) have turned into product tools of record yet if they have how are you fairing and if they haven't when do you expect that to occur?

Answer : Mike Splinter of AMAT
Yeah we're very, very positive on our opportunity as the first customer ramps from planar to 3D NAND. We're seeing significant increase in market share especially in etch but our overall time and market share is definitely going up in that planar to 3D NAND transition. So I would say that the overall increase that we talked about around 25% in terms of the application or the total available market is about what we expected to be honest we’re doing even better in etch in that transition than we had anticipated.”

(vested)

Is UMS producing 3D NAND and smartphone and tablet components?

(24-08-2013, 06:55 PM)a74henry Wrote: [ -> ]Is UMS producing 3D NAND and smartphone and tablet components?

NO.

UMS makes parts for the machines the eventually produce these components.

One question.

Understand that UMS revenue mainly come from Singapore. Who are their customers here? Or does Applied Material operate from Singapore?

Thanks in advanced.