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Recent figures seem consistent with "pushed out in equipment deliveries" by end users.

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North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts October 2014 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.93

SAN JOSE, Calif. — November 20, 2014 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.10 billion in orders worldwide in October 2014 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.93, according to the October EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 0.93 means that $93 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in October 2014 was $1.10 billion. The bookings figure is 7.0 percent lower than the final September 2014 level of $1.19 billion, and is 1.9 percent lower than the October 2013 order level of $1.12 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in October 2014 was $1.18 billion. The billings figure is 5.8 percent lower than the final September 2014 level of $1.26 billion, and is 10.6 percent higher than the October 2013 billings level of $1.07 billion.

"While the global semiconductor equipment industry will see strong double-digit growth this year and is slated for further growth in 2015, order activity posted by North American suppliers has moderated, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio below parity for two consecutive months," said SEMI president and CEO Denny McGuirk.

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings (3-mo. avg)
Bookings (3-mo. avg)
Book-to-Bill

January 2014
1,233.2 ( 27.0% HIGHER than January 2013 billing of USD 0.968 billion )
1,280.3 ( 19.0% HIGHER than January 2013 booking of USD 1.08 billion )
1.04

February 2014
1,288.3 (32% HIGHER than February 2013 billing of USD 0.9747 billion )
1,295.4 (21.0% HIGHER than February 2013 booking of USD 1.07 billion )
1.01

March 2014
1,225.5 (23.7% HIGHER than March 2013 billing of USD 0.991 billion)
1,297.7 (18% HIGHER than March 2013 booking of USD 1.10 billion)
1.06

April (2014)
1,403.2 (28.7% HIGHER than April 2013 billing of USD 1.09 billion)
1,443.0 (23.3% HIGHER than April 2013 booking of USD 1.17 billion)
1.03

May 2014
1,407.8 (15.4% HIGHER than May 2013 billing of USD 1.22 billion)
1,407.0 ( 6.6% HIGHER than May 2013 booking of USD 1.32 billion)
1.00

June 2014
1,327.5 (9.7% HIGHER than June 2013 billing of USD 1.21 billion)
1,455.0 (9.4% HIGHER than June 2013 booking of USD 1.33 billion)
1.10

July 2014
1,319.1 (9.9% HIGHER than July 2013 billing of USD 1.20 billion)
1,417.1 (17.1% HIGHER than July 2013 booking of USD 1.21 billion)
1.07

Aug 2014
1,293.4 (19.5% HIGHER than August 2013 billing of USD 1.08 billion)
1,346.1 (26.5% HIGHER than August 2013 booking of USD 1.06 billion)
1.04

Sep 2014 (Final)
1,256.5 (23.4% HIGHER than Sept 2013 billing of USD 1.02 billion)
1,186.2 (19.8% HIGHER than Sept 2013 booking of USD 0.99 billion)
0.94

Oct 2014 (prelim)
1,184.0 (10.6% HIGHER than Oct 2013 billing of USD 1.07 billion)
1,102.9 (1.9% LOWER than Oct 2013 booking of USD 1.12 billion)
0.93

Worldwide Smartphone Growth Forecast to Slow from a Boil to a Simmer as Prices Drop and Markets Mature, According to IDC

01 Dec 2014

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. December 1, 2014 – According to a new mobile phone forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments will reach a total of nearly 1.3 billion units in 2014, representing an increase of 26.3% over 2013. Looking ahead, IDC expects 1.4 billion smartphones to be shipped worldwide in 2015 for a 12.2% year-over-year growth rate. Slower annual growth continues throughout the forecast with unit shipments approaching 1.9 billion units in 2018, resulting in a 9.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2014–2018 forecast period. Smartphone revenues reflect a starker picture, as they will be hard hit by the increasingly cutthroat nature of pricing, resulting in a 4.2% CAGR over the same forecast period.

"The impact of upstart Chinese players in the global market will be reflected in a race to the bottom when it comes to price. While premium phones aren't going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality or experience," said Melissa Chau, Senior Research Manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The biggest question now is how much lower can prices go?"

On a worldwide basis, smartphones are expected to have an average selling price (ASP) of US$297 worldwide in 2014, dropping to US$241 by 2018. Emerging markets like India will see much lower smartphone prices, as ASPs hit US$135 in 2014 and fall to US$102 by 2018. In contrast, ASPs in mature markets are not expected to change significantly and modestly higher shipment volumes will not drive up overall revenues as each generation of flagship phones shows less and less differentiation from its predecessors.

From an operating system perspective, Android devices will continue to drive shipment volumes while iOS devices drive revenues. By 2018, Android will control 80% of global smartphones shipped and 61% of revenues, while iOS will control only 13% of volumes and 34% of revenues. With Android volumes so dominant, it is no longer a possibility for new operating systems like Tizen and Firefox to compete on price alone – any underdog OS must bring a radically different appeal to gain any significant traction.

"As shipment volume slows, we expect greater attention to shift toward value trends," said Ramon Llamas, Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phones team. "Apple's approach with premium pricing ensures a growing portion of overall revenues despite its declining market share. Meanwhile, Android's multi-faceted approach – with forked versions and low-cost Android One strategy – will produce mixed results, yet it allows deeper penetration into emerging markets. That can lead to additional pressure on its vendor partners, who will need to seek greater differentiation in terms of devices and experiences in the hyper-competitive smartphone market."...........

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25282214

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Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast: $38 Billion in 2014 to Nearly $44 Billion in 2015

TOKYO, Japan — December 2, 2014 — SEMI projects that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment will increase 19.3 percent to $38.0 billion in 2014, according to the SEMI Year-end Forecast, released today at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition. In 2015, strong positive growth is expected to continue, resulting in a global market increase of 15.2 percent before moderating in 2016.

The SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts that wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is anticipated to increase 17.8 percent in 2014 to total $29.9 billion. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will increase by 30.6 percent to $3.0 billion in 2014. The market for semiconductor test equipment is forecast to increase by 26.5 percent, reaching $3.4 billion this year. The “Other Front End” category (fab facilities, mask/reticle, and wafer manufacturing equipment) is expected to increase 14.8 percent in 2014.

For 2014, Taiwan, North America, and South Korea remain the largest spending regions. In terms of percentage growth, SEMI forecasts that in 2015, Europe will reach equipment sales of $3.9 billion (47.9 percent increase over 2014), Taiwan will reach $12.3 billion (28.1 percent increase), and South Korea sales will hit $8.0 billion (25.0 percent increase).

The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars.....................................................

http://www.semi.org/en/node/52451?id=highlights
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Global Semiconductor Sales Increase in October; Substantial Growth Projected for 2014

WSTS forecast projects growth of 9 percent in 2014 and 3.4 percent in 2015

Published Tuesday, December 2, 2014 4:00 pm

by Dan Rosso

WASHINGTON—Dec. 2, 2014—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and design, today announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $29.7 billion for the month of October 2014, an increase of 9.6 percent from the October 2013 total of $27.1 billion and an uptick of 1.5 percent compared to last month’s total of $29.2 billion. Sales in the Americas increased 12.2 percent year-over-year in October, leading all regions. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. Additionally, a new WSTS industry forecast projects substantial growth for 2014 and moderate growth for 2015 and 2016.

“Year-over-year global semiconductor sales increased for the eighteenth straight month in October, and the industry is well-positioned for a strong close to 2014,” said Brian Toohey, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales continue to be strong across the board, with nearly all regions and product categories exhibiting increases. We expect nearly double-digit growth in 2014, followed by moderate growth in 2015 and 2016.”

Regionally, sequential monthly sales increased in the Americas (5.8 percent) and remained roughly flat in Asia Pacific (up 0.7 percent), Europe (down 0.1 percent), and Japan (down 0.6 percent). Compared to October 2013, sales increased in the Americas (12.2 percent) as noted above, Asia Pacific (12.1 percent), and Europe (5.2 percent), but decreased in Japan (-3 percent).

Additionally, SIA today endorsed the WSTS Autumn 2014 global semiconductor sales forecast, which projects the industry’s worldwide sales will reach $333.2 billion in 2014, a 9 percent increase from the 2013 sales total. WSTS predicts year-over-year increases for 2014 in Asia Pacific (11.4 percent), Europe (8.7 percent), the Americas (6.9 percent), and Japan (1.3 percent)..............................................

http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2014/..._for_2014/

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Tokyo Electron spread wide on possible S. Korea delay

by Scott Stuart | Published December 2, 2014

The outlook for Applied Materials Inc.'s (AMAT) $12 billion acquisition of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (8035) seems to still lean toward an eventual approval but the arbitrage spread remains wide.

That spread, about $1.80, or 10%, Monday trended in from about $2 on a report that the deal looks likely to clear its review in South Korea, even though the time line for that approval was said to be a spring date.

More importantly, the review of the deal with the Department of Justice in the U.S. has reached a stage of that agency vetting a buyer of assets to be divested to get the deal done, a source said.

The report out of South Korea by the Korea Times suggested that Samsung Electronics (KRX) was opposing the transaction but has altered its stance after reaching an agreement with Applied Materials regarding collaboration on next generation chip designs. Korea is now likely to approve the transaction, but possibly not until March or April, according to that report.

The companies have been targeting a close by the end of 2014, but last month allowed that the regulatory reviews could slip into 2015.

The antitrust review by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China under a standard timetable could end at the close of January, considering an accepted application in late July. The companies refiled for that review on July 28.

The U.S. Department of Justice issued a second request issued last Dec. 13.

One source said that the DOJ was reviewing a buyer of assets to be divested for the approval and that the DOJ required a "fix-it-first".

The DOJ declined to comment. Applied Materials did not return calls.

The notion that regulators are reviewing a divestiture package is a positive for the spread, which has been buffeted by reports that competitors or customers have raised obstacles to the combination of the manufacturers of tools for fashioning semiconductors.

If a package is being vetted, then it stands to reason that the requirement of the DOJ or MofCom have been at least addressed, if not fully resolved.

One arb said that Intel Corp. (INTC) had issues because it had servicing for its Tokyo Electron product without cost, while Applied Materials charged for like services. Intel, the arb said, has assurances that it will continue to receive servicing for Tokyo product for a specified period and the chip-maker has lightened opposition to the merger.

While the notion that South Korea could review the deal until the spring is not refreshing, that Samsung has also been brought on board is sign that the deal is moving forward.

The transaction also needs approval in Japan.

The approval by the German Federal Cartel Office stated that a great many complex markets were analyzed without raising issues that jurisdiction, in part because the large chip-makers wield too much power for a combined Applied-Tokyo to raise prices.

If the merger can close by the end of January, the spread represents an annualized return of about 60%.

http://www.thedeal.com/content/tmt/tokyo...-delay.php

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DECEMBER 3, 2014
By IC Insights

Cellphones Continue to be the Largest Driver of IC Sales
Internet of Things and wireless networks are expected to grow the fastest through 2018.

The total production value of electronic systems is projected to increase 5% in 2014 to $1.49 trillion and climb to about $1.82 trillion in 2018, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from $1.41 trillion in 2013, according to IC Insights’ new 2015 edition of IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. The new 480-page report shows cellphones extending their lead over standard personal computers (desktops and notebooks) as the largest electronic systems market in 2014 after overtaking PCs for the first time in 2013. The report also shows the cellphone market extending its lead as the largest end-use IC application in 2014, accounting for 25% of total integrated circuit sales in 2014 versus standard PCs representing 21%.

Figure 1 compares the relative market sizes and projected growth rates of 10 major systems segments among a couple dozen end-use electronic product categories covered in the 2015 IC Market Drivers report. Systems sales associated with the emerging Internet of Things are expected to rise by the fastest rate in the forecast period, growing by a CAGR of 21.1%.

In 2014, cellphone handsets are expected to account for 18% of worldwide electronic systems sales ($265.2 billion) versus standard PCs being 13% ($196.0 billion) of the total this year. In 2013, PCs represented 15% of worldwide systems sales while cellphones were slightly less than 18% of the total, based on the new report’s market analysis. Tablet sales are expected to account for 6% of 2014 systems revenues compared to 5% in 2013, while dollar volumes for Internet of Things functions (embedded in end-use applications) are projected to represent 3% of the total electronics market, up slightly from 2013.

After dominating integrated circuit sales for most of the last two decades, standard PCs were unseated by cellphones as the largest end-use IC application in 2013. The new 2015 IC Market Drivers report estimates cellphone integrated circuit sales will grow 11% in 2014 to $70.7 billion from $63.5 billion in 2013. Cellphone IC sales are forecast to rise another 11% to $78.4 billion in 2015. Standard PC IC sales will pull out of a two-year slump (-11% in 2012 and -10% in 2013) to grow 4% in 2014, reaching $59.1 billion, according to the new report. PC IC sales are forecast to grow 2% in 2015 to $60.6 billion.......................................................

http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/737.pdf

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STAMFORD, Conn.,
December 8, 2014

Gartner Says By 2018, More Than 50 Percent of Users Will Use a Tablet or Smartphone First for All Online Activities

Mobile devices are increasingly becoming the first go-to device for communications and content consumption, according to Gartner, Inc. In the emerging economies, users are adopting smartphones as their exclusive mobile devices while in developed economies, multi-device households are becoming the norm, with tablets growing at the fastest rate of any computing device. As such, Gartner predicts that, by 2018, more than 50 percent of users will go to a tablet or smartphone first for all online activities.

“The use pattern that has emerged for nearly all consumers, based on device accessibility, is the smartphone first as a device that is carried when mobile, followed by the tablet that is used for longer sessions, with the PC increasingly reserved for more-complex tasks,” said Van Baker, research vice president. “This behavior will adapt to incorporate wearables as they become widely available for users. As voice, gesture and other modalities grow in popularity with consumers, and as content consumption tasks outweigh content creation tasks, this will further move users away from the PC.”

Gartner outlined key predictions around mobility: .........................

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2939217

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Foundry sales growing faster than chip market

December 08, 2014 | Peter Clarke |

Global foundry IC revenues will grow by 13 percent to $47.9 billion in 2014, following on from annual growth of 13 percent in 2013 and 18 percent in 2012, according to a report produced jointly by the Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) and market researcher IC Insights.........................................

http://www.analog-eetimes.com/en/foundry...D=8&page=0

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Solid Years: Cautious Optimism Drives Equipment Spending into 2015

Expect 18% growth for 2014 and 2015

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group, SEMI

Worldwide semiconductor capital expenditure growth for this year is expected to be 11% and will increase another 8% in 2015. Throughout 2014, SEMI has tracked 177 facilities worldwide investing about US$34 billion on semiconductor equipment. In 2015, 190 facilities are being tracked with fab equipment spending worth over US$40 billion. The double-digit growth in fab equipment spending for this year and next follows spending declines in the two years leading into 2014.

Back in August 2014, SEMI’s predicted fab equipment spending to rise by 21% for this year, however, push out in spending by some companies resulted in a slight downward revision. Now we expect growth for 2014 to be a bit more modest, but still very healthy in the 16-18% range.

Looking back, the beginning of 2014 appeared euphoric, with high capital expenditure expected by major players: TSMC had announced plans to spend in the $10 billion range, Samsung Electronics was at 14.5 Trillion Won, and Intel planned around $11 billion (+/-$500 million). However, equipment spending for some of the key fab projects slowed down around the middle of the year, and some spending has pushed more into 2015. For example, capital expenditures by Samsung Electronics though the end September 2014 was only at 58% of their announced capex. We also see TSMC equipment spending for Front End facilities to be somewhat lower than originally expected. One reason for these push outs is that the adoption of 14/16nm nodes and 3D NAND began slow in 2014 but is expected to accelerate in 2015.

Fab equipment spending for next year, 2015, looks robust, and, compared to 2014, even more companies will join the billion dollar club, spending $1 billion or more for the year. Inotera will more than double its capex, from $730 million in 2014 to $1.66 billion in 2015. TSMC has indicated that its 2015 capex will exceed $10 billion; and Intel will spend less in 2015 than in 2014, but still plans about $10 billion. As detailed in SEMI’s World Fab Forecast report there are ten fab projects with major investments for equipment spending ranging between $1 billion and $2 billion in 2015 compared to 7 fab projects in 2014..................................................................................

http://www.semi.org/en/node/52591?id=highlights

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Globalfoundries striving to win orders from Qualcomm and Apple

Josephine Lien, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Thursday 11
December 2014]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20141210PD214.html

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What’s Holding Back The IoT

Posted on: December 9th, 2014 - Posted by: Ernest Worthman

http://semiengineering.com/iot-growth-issues/

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Fab Tool Biz Faces Challenges In 2015

Posted on: December 11th, 2014 - Posted by: Mark LaPedus

http://semiengineering.com/fab-tool-biz-...s-in-2015/

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Internet of Things Boosts Embedded Systems Growth

IC sales for IoT will climb by a CAGR of 24% in the next five years, says new report.

DECEMBER 11, 2014

By IC Insights

http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/740.pdf
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STAMFORD, Conn., December 10, 2014 View All Press Releases

Gartner Predicts By 2017, 30 Percent of Smart Wearables Will Be Inconspicuous to the Eye

Gartner Reveals Predictions for Consumer Devices for 2015 and Beyond

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2941317

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A minor update to Boon's post with the following, a view from key market player on global semicon outlook next year...

Taiwan chip tycoon upbeat about sector’s 2015 outlook

TAIPEI — Taiwan’s Mr Morris Chang, the founder of the world’s largest contract chipmaker, said yesterday he was upbeat about the global semiconductor outlook for next year and that his firm could play a helpful role as China develops its own chip industry.

“We expect to be able to play a supportive role in the recent mainland semiconductor plan,” the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company told a Taiwan-China business conference in Taipei attended by senior Chinese officials.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/tech/taiwan-c...15-outlook

Egham, UK, December 15, 2014

Gartner Says Sales of Smartphones Grew 20 Percent in Third Quarter of 2014

Sales of Smartphones in Emerging Markets Exhibited Highest Growth Ever, While Western Europe Continued to Decline

Samsung Lost Market Share While Top Three Chinese Manufacturers Combined Smartphone Market Share Grew by Four Percentage Points

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2944819
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STAMFORD, Conn., December 16, 2014

What to Expect at CES 2015 - The Connected Home

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2946317

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