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Applied Materials' Management presents at Citi Global Technology Conference -(Transcript)
Sep 4 2013,

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1673002-...art=single

(vested)

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Global Semiconductor Industry Posts Highest Sales Total of 2013 in July
Sales in Americas up 21.5 percent year-over-year; global sales increase for fifth straight month

Published Tuesday, September 3, 2013 5:00 pm

http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2013/...3_in_july/

i was once working in the semiconductor industries.

Apart from knowing DDR4 is coming up, there were also internal circulars on how new technologies are going to affect the semiconductor industries, including future usage of carbon nanotubes.

(05-09-2013, 11:53 AM)momoeagle Wrote: [ -> ]i was once working in the semiconductor industries.

Apart from knowing DDR4 is coming up, there were also internal circulars on how new technologies are going to affect the semiconductor industries, including future usage of carbon nanotubes.

Looming IC Industry Changes Mean Proliferation of New Materials Needs
By Paula Doe, SEMI Emerging Markets

The onslaught of next generation technologies coming to the semiconductor industry will bring demand for a host of new materials, but also an increasingly fragmented materials market, making strategic investment decisions for materials development even more risky and complex than usual.

http://www.semi.org/en/node/46866?id=sgurow0913

Learning from the Experience of other Emerging Materials

"For figuring out how to make the right strategic choices for investing in these new materials, it could help to look at the experience of past generations of emerging material technologies, both as business case studies of individual companies, and for materials types in the aggregate.

Lux Research is working on developing a database of advanced materials development in the past that can be used as a strategic predicative tool for forecasting the commercialization trajectories of other emerging material technologies. “If we look at the timeframe it took, say, carbon fiber to get from the first 100 patents to $100 million in revenues, what can that tell us about the commercialization timeline of carbon nanotubes and graphene?” says Lux senior analyst Ross Kozarsky. “Technology scouts and venture capitalists alike looking for the next ‘big thing’ often forget that ‘big’ developments will require more patience — often 15 to 25 years — than their typical metrics allow. Our research seeks to develop new metrics based on quantified data.”
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Will 2014 be the Next Golden Year?

Some Unexpected Underdogs Spur Spending Spree

By Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group (September 3, 2013)

Next year could be a golden year for the industry

http://www.semi.org/en/node/46926?id=sgurow0913
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Worldwide Mobile Phone Market Forecast to Grow 7.3% in 2013 Driven by 1 Billion Smartphone Shipments, According to IDC

04 Sep 2013

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. September 4, 2013 – The worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to grow 7.3% year over year in 2013, marking a sharp rebound from the nearly flat (1.2%) growth experienced in 2012. Strong demand for smartphones across all geographies will drive much of this growth as worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to surpass 1 billion units for the first time in a single year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker ......................

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24302813

(vested)

This was a presentation at a technology conference – highly technical – but if one could grasp or appreciate what Steve Ghaayem was saying about AMAT's competitive advantage - and if things do fall into place as per AMAT’s roadmap – then it would be great for both AMAT and UMS.

Applied Materials' Management Presents at Deutsche Bank Technology Conference (Transcript)
Sep 10 2013, 23:21
Steve Ghanayem - Group Vice President and General Manager, Transistor and Metallization Products Group

Webcast:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1684212-...e_readmore

Transcript:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1685972-...art=single

Key takeaways:
- Mobility is about performance – speed and power control.
- Mobility trend can happen is because of advanced transistors.
- Mobility is really all about the transistor.
- There is no question that the mobility era is here, it’s strong,
- In the past transistor really didn’t change much. For 30 years it was essentially the same material system.
- Basically at 28 nanometer 90% of the performance gains came from materials and device architecture innovation.
- Going forward, to get more speed out of the transistor, AMAT reckons it is not about geometric scaling anymore, it is about material scaling - started with the implementation of epi, significant and drastic material change in High-k metal gate, and then again at the replacement gate, and then going into FinFET, and then next generation FinFET. (Note: Epi is all about speed ; Power control is all about the “high-k/metal gate stack)
- Steve Ghanayem call this a transistor revolution which has just begun - and it really is a revolution in the way a transistor is made and the way it's going to be made in the future - the new materials part will really drive the transistor performance into the next decade: “So key takeaways, the transition revolution has just begun, a lot of people like to think of it that we are already well down this but as I said 20 nanometer hasn’t even ramped yet. We still have FinFET, we still have beyond FinFET, there is huge opportunity going forward for us and we are in a very good position to capitalize on that opportunity. You know our leadership in metal gate and epi will drive very strong revenue growth for Applied Materials in the next few years as these technologies get ramped”.

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New materials and transistors: Applied Materials details the road beyond 14nm
29 Jul 2013 by Sebastian Anthony
: http://www.itproportal.com/2013/07/29/ne...z2eZGSr13Y

For the complete set of slides, hit up the Semicon West 2013 website [PDF]. Unless you’re a PhD-wielding process chemist working at Intel or TSMC, though, the contents may go over your head.
http://www.semiconwest.org/sites/semicon...erials.pdf

(Vested)

Consistent with the "breather" call.

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts August 2013 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.98

SAN JOSE, Calif. — September 19, 2013 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.06 billion in orders worldwide in August 2013 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.98, according to the August EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 0.98 means that $98 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in August 2013 was $1.06 billion. The bookings figure is 11.9 percent lower than the final July 2013 level of $1.21 billion, and is 2.7 percent lower than the August 2012 order level of $1.09 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in August 2013 was $1.08 billion. The billings figure is 10.1 percent lower than the final July 2013 level of $1.20 billion, and is 18.7 percent lower than the August 2012 billings level of $1.33 billion.................................

http://www.semi.org/en/node/47146?id=highlights
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To enable a smartphone user to download three high-definition movies in one second by 2020 ( 7 years from now ) is a tall order IMO.

Japan aims to develop ultrafast wireless technology by 2020
Sep. 14, 2013 -TOKYO

Japan is aiming to develop a super-fast wireless system by the 2020 Tokyo Games that would allow a smartphone user to download three high-definition movies in one second, an official said Friday.

The technology, which is still in its early stages, would use wireless semiconductors, the official of the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry told AFP.

“The chips would use very high frequency bands, called terahertz signals, which could move data at a rate of 100 GB per second. And that would be as fast as downloading three movies in a second,” he said.

The ministry wants the technology in place in time for the Tokyo Olympics, he said, adding subcontractors would be recruited to take on the research.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/techn...gy-by-2020

(Vested)

It looks like most forecasters have bullish outlooks over the next few years.
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Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Spending to Decline 8.5 Percent in 2013
STAMFORD, Conn., September 19, 2013

Worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending is projected to total $34.6 billion in 2013, an 8.5 percent decline from 2012 spending of $37.8 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner said that capital spending will decrease 6.8 percent in 2013, due to diminishing 28-nanometer (nm) investment from a softening in the mobile phone market. ……………..

Gartner said that capital spending is highly concentrated among a handful of companies. The top three companies (Intel, TSMC and Samsung) account for more than half of 2013 spending. Spending by the top five semiconductor manufacturers exceeds 65 percent of total 2013 spending, with the top 10 accounting for 76 percent of the total. 2013 spending will be back-half-loaded, with capacity increases occurring as memory market conditions improve, and Intel prepares for initial 14-nm production late in the year………………..

Gartner predicts that 2014 semiconductor capital spending will increase 14.1 percent, followed by 13.8 percent growth in 2015. The next cyclical decline will be a mild drop of 2.8 percent in 2016, followed by a return to growth in 2017………………….

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2592316

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Leading-Edge Technology to be Responsible for Entire 2013 Increase in Pure-Play Foundry Sales
SEPTEMBER 17, 2013

http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/598.pdf

(Vested)

I am from semicon equipment industry. Share some personal observations: Intel and samsung had finished a big amount of orders in 2012 to early 2013. They haven't started next batch of orders. TSMC and some small chip manufacturers are now spending a lot...

Next quarter revenue will decline for both AMAT and KT. I think they will recover in first half of 2014 with Intel and Samsung resuming orders....

Next engines for equipment spending is probably from 450mm and EUV, which may be around early 2015 from my perspective, as most of companies are still striving on these products development.

(23-09-2013, 10:40 PM)Boon Wrote: [ -> ]It looks like most forecasters have bullish outlooks over the next few years.
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Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Spending to Decline 8.5 Percent in 2013
STAMFORD, Conn., September 19, 2013

Worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending is projected to total $34.6 billion in 2013, an 8.5 percent decline from 2012 spending of $37.8 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner said that capital spending will decrease 6.8 percent in 2013, due to diminishing 28-nanometer (nm) investment from a softening in the mobile phone market. ……………..

Gartner said that capital spending is highly concentrated among a handful of companies. The top three companies (Intel, TSMC and Samsung) account for more than half of 2013 spending. Spending by the top five semiconductor manufacturers exceeds 65 percent of total 2013 spending, with the top 10 accounting for 76 percent of the total. 2013 spending will be back-half-loaded, with capacity increases occurring as memory market conditions improve, and Intel prepares for initial 14-nm production late in the year………………..

Gartner predicts that 2014 semiconductor capital spending will increase 14.1 percent, followed by 13.8 percent growth in 2015. The next cyclical decline will be a mild drop of 2.8 percent in 2016, followed by a return to growth in 2017………………….

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2592316

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Leading-Edge Technology to be Responsible for Entire 2013 Increase in Pure-Play Foundry Sales
SEPTEMBER 17, 2013

http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/598.pdf

(Vested)

AMAT to buy Tokyo Electron. Will this be more orders for UMS, or less....?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24...mates.html

(24-09-2013, 09:55 PM)l0nEr Wrote: [ -> ]AMAT to buy Tokyo Electron. Will this be more orders for UMS, or less....?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24...mates.html

From your link,

Tokyo Electron, the No. 2 maker of chip production machines, reported a 3 billion yen ($30 million) loss for the three months ended June 30.

Perhaps more? But, deal will likely close only in mid to 2H14 if it goes thro'. Any impact to UMS will not be seen so soon...

The Press Release

“When we looked at Tokyo Electron’s supply chain, in the past and currently, it’s very high quality suppliers and we looked at the Applied supply chain, very diverse base of suppliers. So, we think combining the two of those got a lot of opportunities in time, cost and quality.” The merged company also would have more leeway in terms of pricing, Sanganeria added. Johnson of Gartner said the new entity would have “tremendous leverage.”

This can be a positive or negative risk.

AMAT engages UMS due to their ability to deliver and cost, so if Endura remains the more competitive product, and if its cheaper to be done in Singapore, then i believe it should be ok.

If in Japan they have a cost competitive one or that the product from Tokyo Electron is better, very much possibilitity of a shift to japan.

Just my thoughts.

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http://gigaom.com/2013/09/24/why-applied...b-company/