(02-08-2014, 03:05 PM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]^^^ It's not really an experiment but I enjoy a live demonstration rather than 纸上谈兵 
And I believe Nick knows what I am talking about. IMHO Nick is wrong on his 1/3 sale in the short run, but if we are talking about long run opportunity cost and risk control, he is most likely right. OTOH there can be those that get the FA wrong but the positioning right. You can be both right and wrong at the same time, depending on your timeline.
Similarly my interest and updates on the Argentina debt default. On hindside things always looks easy (see my avatar), only when you are involved in a LIVE event then one will know the issues involved.
FA is the basis of all investments, but timing and catalysts are selective to improve returns, as FA USUALLY doesn't change so fast.
With the benefit of hindsight,
Those who had sold all his/her stakes just before ex-bonus date would have maximized his/her profit – the price was at the highest – (act 1).
After the disclosure of AMAT’s selling and after ex-bonus, while the knife was still falling
Those who had sold on the next day or two were doing not too bad either – but one still stuck with the bonus issues – as they had yet to be accredited at that time – (Act 2).
Vested or not vested – those who were dared to “short” - before the “falling knife” had stopped falling - would have had make money as well – (Act 3).
After the bonus share had been issued, and the “falling knife” had stopped falling (in range bound situation),
Those who had only decided to sell all his/her stakes (original shares + bonus) then, were the worst performers - (Act 4)
After the price has rebounded to above 60 cents now,
Those who had sold off their bonus shares earlier (before the rebound) would probably have regretted now – (Act 5)
Those who are still holding on to their bonus shares seem to be the right choice, in the short run – (Act 6).
Those who had bought in at the tail-end of the falling knife and before the recent rebound are sitting on paper profit of about 10% - (Act 7).
Those who have not sold his/her shares since – are somewhere in between – (Act 8)
In summary,
- the right course of actions to be taken seemed to be: Act 2, Act 3, Act 6 & Act 7
- the wrong course of actions seemed to be Act 4 and Act 5
- Act 8 is somewhere in between.
Right or Wrong - be it short run or long run – could only be known Ex-Post (after the fact) – Before the fact (Ex-ante), who knows if it will turn out to be right or wrong?
(vested)
