Chip Forecasts, Drivers Diverge
2016 predictions span -3 to +4 percent
Rick Merritt
1/12/2016
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_...e_number=1
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Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending to Decline 4.7 Percent in 2016
STAMFORD, Conn., January 11, 2016
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3184717
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Samsung, TSMC Remain Tops in Available Wafer Fab Capacity
GlobalFoundries, TSMC, SK Hynix show greatest gains in wafer capacity in 2015.
06 Jan 2016, By IC Insights
http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/849.pdf
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TSMC expects to launch 5nm node 2 years after 7nm
Julian Ho, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 18 January 2016]
TSMC will be ready to roll out its 5nm process technology two years after the launch of its 7nm node, according to the pure-play foundry.
TSMC expects to start production of 7nm chips in the first half of 2018, said company co-CEO Mark Liu at a recent investors meeting. He did not specify whether the node would be ready for volume production or just risk production.
In addition, TSMC has been engaged in R&D for 5nm process technology for one year, said Liu, adding that the node will be ready for launch in the first half of 2020.
TSMC also revealed it will be ready to use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography to make 5nm chips. "We've made significant progress with EUV to prepare for its insertion, likely in 5nm," Liu indicated.
As for 10nm, TSMC expects to qualify the node which will be ready for customer tape-outs in the first quarter of 2016, Liu said.
CC Wei, TSMC's other co-CEO, noted that TSMC's share of the 14/16nm foundry market segment will rise to more than 70% in 2016 from about 40% in 2015. TSMC's 16nm FinFET processes consisting of 16FF (16nm FinFET), 16FF+ (16nm FinFET Plus) and 16FFC (16nm FinFET Compact) will account for more than 20% of the foundry's total wafer revenues in 2016, Wei said.
The new 16nm FFC node, a low-power and low-cost version of TSMC's 16nm FinFET products, will be ready for volume production in the first quarter of 2016, Wei indicated.
Wei also disclosed TSMC is on track to move its integrated fan-out (InFO) wafer-level packaging technology to volume production in the second quarter of 2016. "We do not expect adoption by a large number of customers. However, we do expect a few very large volume customers," Wei said.
Apple is reportedly among the first wave of customers adopting the InFO packaging technology.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160115PD206.html
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Semiconductor R&D Growth Slows in 2015
Industry-wide R&D expenditures grew 0.5% to a record-high $56.4 billion in 2015. Top 10 R&D spenders collectively increased expenditures by nearly 2% in the year.
20 Jan 2016, by IC Insights
http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/850.pdf
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Worldwide Device Shipments to Grow 1.9 Percent in 2016, While End-User Spending to Decline for the First Time
Businesses Will Adopt Windows 10 Faster Than Previous Windows Upgrades; PC Market to Increase 4 Percent in 2017
By End of 2016, 82 Percent of Mobile Phones Will Be Smartphones
Egham, UK, January 20, 2016
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3187134
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Industry Road Map Under Construction
Expect delays, detours and lots more engineering work before the road is complete.
JANUARY 21ST, 2016 - BY:
ED SPERLING
http://semiengineering.com/industry-road...struction/
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EUV Improves But Not Ready
Progress in light source, throughput cited
Rick Merritt
1/21/2016
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1328737
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More Downside than Upside Risk to IC Insights’ 2016 IC Market Growth Forecast
Worldwide GDP growth and currency exchange rate fluctuations expected to have major impact on the forecast.
25 January 2016
http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/855.pdf
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Pure-play foundries put capex focus on 10nm processes, says Applied executive
Julian Ho, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 22 January 2016]
The 2016 capex focus of pure-play IC foundries will be on 10nm process technology, according to Applied Materials Taiwan president Erix Yu. About half of the foundries' combined capex for the year will be spent on their respective 10nm process nodes.
Investments by pure-play foundries for 2016 are expected to grow from a low point in 2015, said Yu, adding that the majority of their 2016 investments will be made during the latter half of the year.
The overall fab equipment spending for 2016 is forecast to remain flat, Yu indicated. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the spending will increase if NAND flash suppliers spend big on their respective 3D NAND technologies, Yu said.
In the NAND flash market, situations will be more favorable in 2016 compared to 2015, Yu indicated. NAND flash makers are gearing up for commercial production of 3D NAND products this year, Yu said.
Applied Materials reported revenues of US$9.66 billion for its fiscal year ended October 25, 2015, representing a 6% increase, with operating profits and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS hitting the highest levels in four years. Orders grew 5% to US$10.10 billion in the company's fiscal 2015.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160121PD213.html
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North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts December 2015 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.99
SAN JOSE, Calif. — January 26, 2016 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.34 billion in orders worldwide in December 2015 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.99, according to the December EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by
SEMI. A book-to-bill of 0.99 means that $99 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.
SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in December 2015 was $1.34 billion. The bookings figure is 8.6 percent higher than the final November 2015 level of $1.24 billion, and is 2.8 percent lower than the December 2014 order level of $1.38 billion.
The three-month average of worldwide billings in December 2015 was $1.35 billion. The billings figure is 4.9 percent higher than the final November 2015 level of $1.29 billion, and is 3.2 percent lower than the December 2014 billings level of $1.40 billion.
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Both semiconductor equipment bookings and billings improved in December," said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “Despite softness in the equipment market in the fourth quarter, both annual bookings and billings in 2015 of North American equipment suppliers remained above 2014 levels."..................
http://www.semi.org/en/north-american-se...-ratio-099
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Not a bad deal I reckon:
Loan is secured
Interest rate = 3% to 5% p.a.
Earn rental income by renting out part of unutilized manufacturing facility to ASF on a commercial basis.
Option to convert loan into equity at any point in time after one year, up till a maximum of 20 years subject to the revenue of ASF exceeding Ringgit Malaysia Two Million (RM2,000,000.00). The equity percentage for the option shares will depend largely on the accumulated profits of the Company from 1 January 2016 up to the exercise date; the accumulated profits generated is inversely related to the amount of option shares.
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UMS Signs Definitive Agreement with Malaysian Aerospace Metallic Component Manufacturer
Highlights - UMS inked agreement to subscribe for 10% equity of All Star Fortress Sdn. Bhd. (“ASF”) enlarged shareholdings via issuance of new shares for a total consideration of RM0.145 million
- UMS will extend to ASF secured, interest-bearing convertible loans of up to a total of USD7.5 million, which includes USD6.7 million for ASF to strengthen its capability and expand its manufacturing capacity to meet the long term needs of aerospace customers
- UMS will be granted the option to convert balance loan amount into additional ordinary shares of ASF
- Additionally, UMS will rent its Penang premises on a commercial basis to ASF
- This investment is part of the Group’s strategy to diversify its revenue base beyond the semiconductor segment into another high growth sector
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/UMS_Pres...eID=387438
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'Option to convert loan into equity at any point in time after one year, up till a maximum of 20 years subject to the revenue of ASF exceeding Ringgit Malaysia Two Million (RM2,000,000.00). The equity percentage for the option shares will depend largely on the accumulated profits of the Company from 1 January 2016 up to the exercise date; the accumulated profits generated is inversely related to the amount of option shares.'
=> this part is not very clear to me. They should give a ballpark of what % of shares this can represent. For example if the amount of accumulated profit is A then % will be X but if if the amount of accumulated profit is B then % will be Y instead.
UMS will owe 10% of ASF but it would be good to have an idea of how much this stake can raise.
Also it will be interesting to know what rent ASF will pay to UMS but on this question I agree this is probably too early for them to communicate
(28-01-2016, 09:39 AM)ethys Wrote: [ -> ]'Option to convert loan into equity at any point in time after one year, up till a maximum of 20 years subject to the revenue of ASF exceeding Ringgit Malaysia Two Million (RM2,000,000.00). The equity percentage for the option shares will depend largely on the accumulated profits of the Company from 1 January 2016 up to the exercise date; the accumulated profits generated is inversely related to the amount of option shares.'
=> this part is not very clear to me. They should give a ballpark of what % of shares this can represent. For example if the amount of accumulated profit is A then % will be X but if if the amount of accumulated profit is B then % will be Y instead.
UMS will owe 10% of ASF but it would be good to have an idea of how much this stake can raise.
Also it will be interesting to know what rent ASF will pay to UMS but on this question I agree this is probably too early for them to communicate
There is always a balancing point between transparency and biz confidentiality due to competition.
The following statement in the recent disclosure, may give you a hint on the ownership. The 20-year CB is a very safe way to participate on the new venture growth, with capital protection, and additional profit on rental. A good deal to the company indeed.
"The Group expects it will become the major shareholder of ASF in the years to come"
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/UMS_Pres...eID=387438
Global Semiconductor Sales Top $335 Billion in 2015
WORLDWIDE SALES ROUGHLY FLAT COMPARED TO 2014; DECEMBER SALES DECREASE 4.4 PERCENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MONTH
Published Monday, February 1, 2016 8:00 am
by
Dan Rosso
WASHINGTON—Feb. 1, 2016—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced the global semiconductor industry posted sales totaling $335.2 billion in 2015, a slight decrease of 0.2 percent compared to the 2014 total, which was the industry’s highest-ever sales total. Global sales for the month of December 2015 reached $27.6 billion, down 4.4 percent compared to the previous month and 5.2 percent lower than sales from December 2014. Fourth quarter sales of $82.9 billion were 5.2 percent lower than the total of $87.4 billion from the fourth quarter of 2014. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.
“Despite formidable headwinds, the global semiconductor industry posted solid sales in 2015, although falling just short of the record total from 2014,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Factors that limited more robust sales in 2015 include softening demand, the strength of the dollar, and normal market trends and cyclicality. In spite of these challenges, modest market growth is projected for 2016.”
Several semiconductor product segments stood out in 2015. Logic was the largest semiconductor category by sales with $90.8 billion in 2015, or 27 percent of the total semiconductor market. Memory ($77.2 billion) and micro-ICs ($61.3 billion) – a category that includes microprocessors – rounded out the top three segments in terms of total sales. Optoelectronics was the fastest growing segment, increasing 11.3 percent in 2015. Other product segments that posted increased sales in 2015 include sensors and actuators, which reached $8.8 billion in sales for a 3.7 percent annual increase, NAND flash memory ($28.8 billion/2.2 percent increase), and analog ($45.2 billion/1.9 percent increase).
Regionally, annual sales increased 7.7 percent in China, leading all regional markets. All other regional markets – the Americas (-0.8 percent), Europe (-8.5 percent), Japan (-10.7 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (-0.2 percent) – saw decreased sales compared to 2014.
“The semiconductor industry is critically important to the U.S. economy and our global competitiveness,” continued Neuffer. “We urge Congress to enact polices in 2016 that promote innovation and growth. One such initiative is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a landmark agreement that would tear down myriad barriers to trade with countries in the Asia-Pacific. The TPP is good for the semiconductor industry, the tech sector, the American economy, and the global economy. Congress should approve it.”
December 2015 chart and graph
http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2016/...n_in_2015/
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