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On an upcycle again

UMS should be able to benefit from increasing demand for mobile devices. While risks include potential further selldowns by its CEO, industry downturn and high single customer reliance, strong cash flows and high dividend yields should compensate.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese....13_OP.pdf [Initiation Report]

CIMB has re-initiated coverage on UMS with a $0.60 TP and Outperform rating. Despite the high yield, UMS operates in a highly cyclical industry which makes forecasting of earnings difficult though monthly SEMI reports provides some near-term outlook.

UMS is currently trading at 50.5 cents translating to a historic dividend yield of nearly 10%. It has paid quarterly dividends for 3.5 years and it is currently net cash.

(Vested)
Go UMS go Big Grin

Luckily Semiconductor cycle unlike commodity cycle is short so any downside will create lots of opportunity to buy for longs Big Grin

It does look like a downtrend from 1.14 to 1.08 on the SEMI bookbill ratio though.


<vested>
Momentum going strong..................

Fab equipment spending for the second half of 2013 is expected to be much stronger with a 32 percent growth rate or $18.5 billion compared to the first half of 2013. The equipment spending increase in the second half is attributed to growing semiconductor demand and improving average selling price for chips. 2014 is expected to have about 23 to 27 percent growth year-over-year (YoY) to reach about $41 billion, which would be an all-time record
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Fab Equipment Spending: Strong Second Half Pulls 2013 Up; over 23% Growth for 2014
Foundry spending increases in 2013 and 2014, Memory and MPU to increase in 2014

SAN JOSE, Calif. — June 4, 2013 — Fab equipment spending will grow two percent year-over-year (US$ 32.5 billion) for 2013 and about 23 to 27 percent in 2014 ($41 billion) according to the May edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast........................................

Read more:
http://www.semi.org/en/node/45926?id=highlights

(Vested)
SEMI Reports First Quarter 2013 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Figures; Billings US$ 7.31 Billion
SAN JOSE, Calif. — June 10, 2013

http://www.semi.org/en/node/45981?id=highlights
Boon, looks like china figures getting worse and worse, so in the short term downside to markets very likely. STI almost 10% from 3400 highs liao.

but i am very sure smartphone and tablets are the staple of the future.

How many kids recently you see are not addicted to their iPad from young?

the world will need a lot more snapdragon and exynos processors Big Grin

the new intel 4th gen chips out claim to cut power usage by 50%, another renew cycle coming for this year.

Younger generation will delay purchse of cars and houses , but technology products is still a must have, almost like kopi and teh...

though I vested late at 47.5 cents I am hoping it drop to 20+ cents so I can accumulate. Imagine those bought in GFC now enjoying 20% dividends every year.. Big Grin
2 of the top 3 customers (Intel and TSMC) of Applied Materials increased their capex budgets for 2013 while that for the other one (Samsung) remains unchanged.

Digitimes Research: Mixed capex plans for major semiconductor firms in 2013
Ricky Tu, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei [Tuesday 11 June 2013]

Intel, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Texas Instruments (TI), Toshiba, Renesas Electronics, SK Hynix, and STMicroelectronics were among the world's top-10 semiconductor firms in 2012

Among these eight firms, Intel and TSMC have both increased their 2013 capex budgets compared to 2012, while Samsung and Toshiba will see their sums unchanged, according to Digitimes Research. SK Hynix has allocated a smaller 2013 capex compared to 2012, while Texas Instruments, Renesas, and STMicroelectronics have bugeted low capex sums for 2013, added Digitimes Research.

In 2013, Intel plans to increase capex by 18.2% compared to 2012, reaching US$13 billion. The firm wil continue to increase the capacity of 22nm processes and will also invest in development for 18-inch wafers, as well as 14nm, 10nm, 7nm and 5nm processes.

Capex for Samsung's semiconductor business unit kept rising for three consecutive years from 2009-2012, said Digitimes Research. In 2009, the firm's semiconductor capex was US$3.2 billion, but it ballooned to US$12.3 billion in 2012. However, in 2013, its semicondutor capex is likely to drop slightly to US$12 billion. The 2013 capex will be used to increase DRAM capacity at 28nm, construct a new NAND flash plant in Xi'an, China, and push its NAND flash production towards 21nm and 16nm processes. The firm also plans to expand its IC capacity in Austin, Texas, and restart the 17 production lines at a plant located in Hwaseong, South Korea, Digitimes Research stated.

TSMC reported 2012 capex at US$8.3 billion, and this figure is likely to increase to US$9.5-10 billion in 2013. The capex will be used to construct 28nm, 20nm and 26nm process capacity, according to Digitimes Research.

Japan-based Toshiba's 2012 capex is likely to remain at US$2 billion for developing NAND flash 1Y-nm process.

SK Hynix reported 2009 capex of only US$800 million but in 2012, the capex increased to US$3.5 billion. However, the firm may reduce capex to US$2.6 billion in 2013. The firm plans to upgrade its DRAM process from 35nm to 28nm, NAND flash from 27nm to 21nm, and to begin OEM business for high-end chips, Digitimes Research noted.

http://www.digitimes.com/Reports/Report....PD&seq=228

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TSMC to post record earnings and sales for 2013, says Chang

Cage Chao, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Thursday 13 June 2013]

Judging from the current order visibility, Morris Chang, chairman and CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), expects the foundry's performance in the second half of 2013 to outperform that in the first half.

Chang projects that TSMC's consolidated sales and profit figures for all of 2013 will both climb to record highs.

TSMC has seen the visibility of its orders extended to three to four months, which points to "pretty good" industry conditions in the third quarter, according to Chang. Chang added the industry outlook for the fourth quarter is still unclear.

Nonetheless, demand coming from the smartphone and tablet markets remains brisk, which will buoy TSMC's overall performance in the second half of 2013, Chang noted.

In addition, Chang revealed that TSMC started producing test chips using 20nm process technology in November 2011. The foundry is set to ramp up production of 20nm chips by early 2014, Chang said.

As for 16nm FinFET, TSMC has completed the tape-out of chips on the process, Chang disclosed. The node has attracted orders from Xilinx, which expects to sample its 16nm FinFET-based FPGA chips later in 2013 followed by volume production in 2014.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130611PD218.html
Applied materials (AMAT) hit 2 year high yesterday, but UMS slide.
Singapore market sell off provides opportunity???
(13-06-2013, 09:38 PM)l0nEr Wrote: [ -> ]Applied materials (AMAT) hit 2 year high yesterday, but UMS slide.
Singapore market sell off provides opportunity???

Yah market sell-off definitely opportuniy Big Grin

I already started my indicator last month @ 0.475 so wait see if can go down a bit more i will double that.

but have to go in slowly despite the massive div. remember it can go to 10cent as in 2009 crash
(11-06-2013, 11:50 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]but i am very sure smartphone and tablets are the staple of the future.

How many kids recently you see are not addicted to their iPad from young?

the world will need a lot more snapdragon and exynos processors Big Grin

the new intel 4th gen chips out claim to cut power usage by 50%, another renew cycle coming for this year.

Younger generation will delay purchse of cars and houses , but technology products is still a must have, almost like kopi and teh...

Technology is now such a societal basic. Smartphones and tablets are fast becoming ubiquitous “toys” among younger children.

Tablets, Smartphone Steal Scene at Tokyo Toy Show : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/tech...10196.html
North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts May 2013 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.08

SAN JOSE, Calif. — June 20, 2013 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.32 billion in orders worldwide in May 2013 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.08, according to the May EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 1.08 means that $108 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in May 2013 was $1.32 billion. The bookings figure is 12.5 percent higher than the final April 2013 level of $1.17 billion, and is 18.1 percent lower than the May 2012 order level of $1.61 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in May 2013 was $1.22 billion. The billings figure is 12.6 percent higher than the final April 2013 level of $1.09 billion, and is 20.5 percent lower than the May 2012 billings level of $1.54 billion.

“The SEMI Book-to-Bill continues to show steady improvement as the ratio remains at or above parity for the fifth consecutive month,” said Daniel P. Tracy, senior director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. “The spending outlook for the year is improving as foundries continue to invest in advanced technologies and NAND manufacturers plan to increase spending on equipment.”.......................................

http://www.semi.org/en/node/46011?id=highlights