04-11-2013, 10:49 AM
I do not know when or if it happens what would be the magnitude of SMRT’s recovery, but I doubt it will ever get back to the good old days of double digit profit growth yearly or ever increasing dividends which are beyond the country’s general inflation. Most commenters are analyzing SMRT from a financial business and management perspective, but I wish to point out that SMRT’s fate is largely intertwined with politics and society and any analysis must take into account factors beyond that of normal businesses.
The greatest circumstance that will direct SMRT’s fate has more to do with how citizens perceive the social compact of a PTO with society at large than technical details like who is the CEO, what is the pricing mechanism, are they opening more retail space, how much is the debt, financial ratios etc. To me such technicalities are inconsequential and serve as nothing more than short term distractions. In the past, the public has been generally apathic to SMRT’s profits just as they were to public servants’ salaries, but that is clearly now no longer the case.
We have experienced significant changes in political dynamics, awareness of the citizenry to public issues and increasing doubts on Singapore’s state capitalistic model. SMRT profits to me can be easily managed within a tight band by the government. Besides the most obvious avenue through the setting of fares, there are countless indirect ways for various government organizations to channel revenue to/from SMRT while maintaining a facade of an arm's length transaction. The important thing is, how much does the government think SMRT should earn? This is in large part dependent on the nation’s mood and appetite for a privatized critical public good. Right now it doesn’t look good in the nearterm, but once the emotions die down and service/quality levels improve gradually, the public will hopefully be more rational in its view on PTOs.
My gut sense is that SMRT will in the long run be generating returns somewhere higher than inflation and lower/ near to WACC on a stabilized basis. This is a good balance between being palatable to the public while giving decent enough risk controlled returns to investors. Many institutions are probably betting on this long term result as well, which explains the price hovering at a rate that seems too high for SMRT’s current performance and yet still substantially below that of the good old days.
The greatest circumstance that will direct SMRT’s fate has more to do with how citizens perceive the social compact of a PTO with society at large than technical details like who is the CEO, what is the pricing mechanism, are they opening more retail space, how much is the debt, financial ratios etc. To me such technicalities are inconsequential and serve as nothing more than short term distractions. In the past, the public has been generally apathic to SMRT’s profits just as they were to public servants’ salaries, but that is clearly now no longer the case.
We have experienced significant changes in political dynamics, awareness of the citizenry to public issues and increasing doubts on Singapore’s state capitalistic model. SMRT profits to me can be easily managed within a tight band by the government. Besides the most obvious avenue through the setting of fares, there are countless indirect ways for various government organizations to channel revenue to/from SMRT while maintaining a facade of an arm's length transaction. The important thing is, how much does the government think SMRT should earn? This is in large part dependent on the nation’s mood and appetite for a privatized critical public good. Right now it doesn’t look good in the nearterm, but once the emotions die down and service/quality levels improve gradually, the public will hopefully be more rational in its view on PTOs.
My gut sense is that SMRT will in the long run be generating returns somewhere higher than inflation and lower/ near to WACC on a stabilized basis. This is a good balance between being palatable to the public while giving decent enough risk controlled returns to investors. Many institutions are probably betting on this long term result as well, which explains the price hovering at a rate that seems too high for SMRT’s current performance and yet still substantially below that of the good old days.