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(05-05-2012, 03:19 PM)shanrui_91 Wrote: [ -> ]Personally, I don't think all that happen to SMRT is a coincidence. If you think about it, I get the feeling that they are trying to depress the share price.

1 week before announcement of result , they announced the $900m programme without specifying how much LTA will be co-sponsoring. Next their profit drops, dividend cut and they take an impairment of goodwill.

If you are SMRT management, will you announce a $900million plan 1 week before the release of a very lousy result? You could have delayed annoucing it, and at least wait till the % sharing with LTA is confirmed. What's more of the $900m, $200m has been announced much earlier.

Then for their results, they take a full impairment of goodwill which I don't see the reason why they should, unless the bus is going to result in losses for the next 5 years. No one is forcing them to take an impairment of goodwill. Then they still announced a cut in dividend which drastically affected the intrinsic value for those that use a dividend model.

And if you read the newspaper today "Work under way to make MRT system more reliable" , Lui actually says:

"details are being worked out, but broadly, the cost of infrastructural works - such as replacing rail sleepers - will be borne by the LTA". Resleepering is likely to be the major cost of the $900m apart from the signalling system, since resleepering is a project to be carried out until 2019. The $900m is likely to be $600m and below as Lui mentions that infrastructure work will be carried out by LTA.

This is just my personal opinion and speculation, everything can really just be a coincidence. Perhaps SMRT has a management that is not afraid of short-term share price ahead of its AGM

No need to speculate, many cos., be it local or US, that get into trouble, CEO gets replaced,... you'll see the same thing happening.

The new CEO (even if interim and was part of the old mgmt) would take this opportunity to lower the baseline. Whether real or perceived, all the write-off, write-down, huge CAPEX required,.. no one will really blame the NEW mgmt - the mess was after all created by the OLD mgmt! Even if share price were to drop, who to blame? OLD mgmt!

With a lower baseline, it'd be easier for the new mgmt to 'turn' the company around. It'd also be easier for them to 'grow' the bottomline from here on. The share price will of course rise from the dust when it finally settles and guess what? The NEW mgmt will be the hero!

The next step, perhaps, would be to do some organisation restructure + cleansing...

(05-05-2012, 05:14 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2012, 03:19 PM)shanrui_91 Wrote: [ -> ]Personally, I don't think all that happen to SMRT is a coincidence. If you think about it, I get the feeling that they are trying to depress the share price.

1 week before announcement of result , they announced the $900m programme without specifying how much LTA will be co-sponsoring. Next their profit drops, dividend cut and they take an impairment of goodwill.

If you are SMRT management, will you announce a $900million plan 1 week before the release of a very lousy result? You could have delayed annoucing it, and at least wait till the % sharing with LTA is confirmed. What's more of the $900m, $200m has been announced much earlier.

Then for their results, they take a full impairment of goodwill which I don't see the reason why they should, unless the bus is going to result in losses for the next 5 years. No one is forcing them to take an impairment of goodwill. Then they still announced a cut in dividend which drastically affected the intrinsic value for those that use a dividend model.

And if you read the newspaper today "Work under way to make MRT system more reliable" , Lui actually says:

"details are being worked out, but broadly, the cost of infrastructural works - such as replacing rail sleepers - will be borne by the LTA". Resleepering is likely to be the major cost of the $900m apart from the signalling system, since resleepering is a project to be carried out until 2019. The $900m is likely to be $600m and below as Lui mentions that infrastructure work will be carried out by LTA.

This is just my personal opinion and speculation, everything can really just be a coincidence. Perhaps SMRT has a management that is not afraid of short-term share price ahead of its AGM

No need to speculate, many cos., be it local or US, that get into trouble, CEO gets replaced,... you'll see the same thing happening.

The new CEO (even if interim and was part of the old mgmt) would take this opportunity to lower the baseline. Whether real or perceived, all the write-off, write-down, huge CAPEX required,.. no one will really blame the NEW mgmt - the mess was after all created by the OLD mgmt! Even if share price were to drop, who to blame? OLD mgmt!

With a lower baseline, it'd be easier for the new mgmt to 'turn' the company around. It'd also be easier for them to 'grow' the bottomline from here on. The share price will of course rise from the dust when it finally settles and guess what? The NEW mgmt will be the hero!

The next step, perhaps, would be to do some organisation restructure + cleansing...

you just enlighten me, I cannot figure the reason for taking a big bath earlier on. I just don't see why the management is actually doing a full impairment on the bus operation. Now i get it, but too bad the price is still very high

(05-05-2012, 04:56 PM)freedom Wrote: [ -> ]I don't believe that SMRT will be nationalized. government is encouraging private partnership for public work under public private partnership(PPP) for various water/power/energy projects in Singapore. Is nationalization the way backward?

Someone once told me the reason why sometimes government departments privatize themselves, the reason is because they want to earn money from the public.

I feel that it is not SMRT or SBS want to hike fares rather it is LTA that want more money so they use these companies as proxies to hike fare everybody thinks transport companies trying to squeeze public but they don't see the hidden hand of the government.

So you are right to say they will never nationalize but the reason is not they will go backward. If they nationalize they are in a dilemma how can they do it not so openly - talking about the money.

quote ".....Now i get it, but too bad the price is still very high ....."

Temasek Holdings said Thursday (3 May 2012) it had cut its stakes in two of China's largest banks by selling shares worth $2.48 billion. Now it is flush with cash. Who wants to be the 1st one to sell cheaply to TH?

If SMRT is nationalized, it has to divest its investment in Shenzhen Zona and its other interests in SMRT International.

i don't think PAPY wants to nationalise SMRT. Papy doesn't have to do that. People always forget "TooMuchSick" already owns more than 50% of SMRT not to mention LTA, etc.. . Semi-Nationalised is better than fully Nationalised. Papy wants to have his cake and eats it too. Ha! Ha! That's i believe is how Singapore is managed by the Papy basic principle. The people will not get any benefit until the Papy does. And Papy gets a lot more. A lot, a lot more.

(05-05-2012, 09:00 PM)wsreader Wrote: [ -> ]quote ".....Now i get it, but too bad the price is still very high ....."

Temasek Holdings said Thursday (3 May 2012) it had cut its stakes in two of China's largest banks by selling shares worth $2.48 billion. Now it is flush with cash. Who wants to be the 1st one to sell cheaply to TH?

Correct me if I'm wrong..

My perception is that although Temasek do invest in local stocks, those are usually done during pre-listing. After listing, I only see them selling down their stakes, usually, slowly over a number of years.

IIRC, they sold down their SMRT stake some time back and cause a temporary small drop in share price in the process.

Anyone here have seen Temasek (not through deemed interest in DBS, Keppel,...) buying and increasing their stakes in local listed companies on a regular basis?

Like what 'shanrui_91' had observed, I share the same sentiments that the share price is unfortunately still not yet attractive (not yet 10% drop from $1.80). Look at EPS, PE, Yield,... plus fears of new CAPEX, fines, higher operating expenses (new buses, higher frequency for trains,...),.... still can't optimistically bring myself to grab some.. Nvm.. skip this 'opportunity' 1st,...

Although each case is always different, I remembered Starhub dropping from $2.3x all the way to $1.8x, triggered mainly by their losing EPL rights to Singtel - the funny thing was, on hindsight, EPL was a loss-making biz and Pay TV only constitutes a small % of Starhub biz!

IMO, the current SMRT problems is a lot bigger than Starhub although of course, LTA could always surprise us by taking on a bigger share of the $900M CAPEX proposal + fare hike...Let's dream on???

PS. I think there's a high chance Temasek is planning to spend some $$ for a stake in the China Post IPO instead..

SMRT raises bus drivers’ basic salaries by 35%
By Jeanette Tan

Yahoo! Newsroom – 3 hours ago

Following the move of its rival, transport operator Singapore Mass Rapid Transit (SMRT) has upped the basic salaries of their new bus drivers in a bid to attract more Singaporeans to the job.

Starting pay for new Singaporean bus drivers has gone up this month from $1,200 to $1,625 per month, an approximately 35 per cent hike.

After factoring in overtime, allowance and incentives, this figure goes up to $2,500 on average, up from between $1,600 and $2,000, said spokespersons for SMRT.

SMRT said a salary hike applies for its existing bus drivers as well, but this will be applied at varying amounts based on a number of factors such as years of service.

One spokesperson said that to-date SMRT employs about 1,900 “service Leaders” (SLs), of whom about 42 per cent are foreigners from Malaysia and China.

Last month, Singapore’s other main transport operator, SBS Transit, said it would increase the starting pay of new Singaporean drivers by 16 per cent from May onwards to encourage more Singaporean bus drivers to apply for such opening.

The basic pay was raised to S$1,600 from S$1,375. With overtime pay and allowances, drivers could earn about S$2,250 a month in gross salary in their first year of service, SBS Transit said.

The firm’s existing 1,900 Singaporean bus drivers also get to take home an additional S$225, with non-Singaporean drivers getting a smaller increase of between $75 and $150.

The transport operators' announcements come after the government announced in this year’s Budget it would set aside S$1.1 billion to fund a significant expansion of bus capacity.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/smrt-raises-bus...y-35-.html

Oil prices has been on the decline.
From about $100 to about $92, and maybe even further.
The Sing $ is also very strong.

On the micro side, SMRT should benefit if
they contract oil price on a monthly basis.

Anyone knows how they do it ?

Many thanks.

(19-05-2012, 08:38 AM)ken Wrote: [ -> ]Oil prices has been on the decline.
From about $100 to about $92, and maybe even further.
The Sing $ is also very strong.

On the micro side, SMRT should benefit if
they contract oil price on a monthly basis.

Anyone knows how they do it ?

Many thanks.

SMRT energy source for train is electricity, for taxi is diesel. The price for electricity and diesel are indirectly impacted by petrol price. Part of their effort is to act as re-seller of diesel to their Taxi drivers, but i doubt it will reduce the cost significantly.

In SMRT AR2011, the cost of electricity and diesel was shown as part of their operating expense. In FY2011, electricity cost increase by 19% while diesel cost increase by 14%.

If petrol price reduces, the cost will reduce accordingly, probably with a time lag of 1Q.

SMRT forces its worker to work 1 extra day for the extra pay...

日期:21/05/2012新闻来源:新明日报记者:郭秀芳

加薪后巴士车长每周工作　做5天变6天

SMRT被轰加薪后，巴士车长每周工作从5天变6天，根本是“加辛”未“加薪”！

SMRT宣布从本月起调高巴士司机薪金，但一群SMRT巴士司机立刻致函《新明日报》大揭，新加坡籍司机其实是面对变相减薪，因为他们每周工作日，从5天变成了6天。

余先生代表一群SMRT巴士司机说，SMRT给巴士司机调整的薪金，做法和新捷运不同。

根据新的薪金制度，SMRT的新加坡籍巴士司机每月加薪225元，永久居民和马国司机则每月加薪100元。

做出决定前 已和工会讨论过；SMRT：巴士数量增加 司机人手短缺。完整报道，请翻阅21.05.2012《新明日报》。

http://news.omy.sg/News/Local%2BNews/Sto...36436.html