(14-07-2012, 03:16 PM)bran Wrote: [ -> ]1. Seems SPH is amassing a larger amount of investments over time, even their SG securities alone is >10% of their total assets.
2. In the annual report, I cannot obtain further details on what these investments are about. The accounting rules may not require them to show the breakdowns but it makes understanding their investments a little more difficult
3. Should SPH be so involved in the investment business?
[Vested]
The last I checked, SPH is holding 13.68% of M1 and 0.75% of Starhub.
In the past (>10yrs back?), their Investment portfolio was a lot larger and more interesting (even have shares in Belgacom - Belgian Telco, I think) but someone in power suddenly woke up one day and decided that conglomerates are no longer fashionable. So, all the GLCs started to divest their non-core biz....
In recent times, the Investment division (?) of SPH seems to be underperforming. I have said it before and I'll say it again - IMO, their over-bidding for Malls sites is the lesser of the two evils ie. keeping free cash for Investments...
(14-07-2012, 10:56 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]In recent times, the Investment division (?) of SPH seems to be underperforming.
Maybe, experience in managing sovereign fund helps? Just thinking aloud, no need any reply.
kopicat selling those away is really biting them now. when u say two evils do you mean that having those malls is better than not buying at all?
(15-07-2012, 09:34 AM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]when u say two evils do you mean that having those malls is better than not buying at all?
Yes, even though they over-bidded (their bids way above 2nd highest bidder) for the Malls, they're finally still able to get decent returns which'd also appreciate over time when rentals get raised (in Singapore context, very high probability event). But, if we look at their Investment returns,
Group Investible Fund = $0.9Bil (pg 12 of Presentations)
Investment Income = $14.5Mil (pg 23 of Financials item 11.4)
I calculate Returns = 1.61% (for 3Qs)
What do you think? Anything wrong with my figures?
(15-07-2012, 10:09 AM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (15-07-2012, 09:34 AM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]when u say two evils do you mean that having those malls is better than not buying at all?
Yes, even though they over-bidded (their bids way above 2nd highest bidder) for the Malls, they're finally still able to get decent returns which'd also appreciate over time when rentals get raised (in Singapore context, very high probability event). But, if we look at their Investment returns,
Group Investible Fund = $0.9Bil (pg 12 of Presentations)
Investment Income = $14.5Mil (pg 23 of Financials item 11.4)
I calculate Returns = 1.61% (for 3Qs)
What do you think? Anything wrong with my figures?
Let's work out the performance base on the following criteria
- Since XIRR with detail input is not possible
i will use average invested fund instead (average of current year and the previous year)
- Return is base on segmental PBT, which may already excluded finance expense if any
The performance of the last 5 years
2011: 3.8%
2010: 3.1%
2009: -0.9%
2008: 4.6%
2007: 13.2%
Average: 4.8%
For this year 9 months performance, YTD 1.5%, approx 2% annualized.
Is this performance acceptable? I received AIA participating fund update for 2011. Average return for 2011 across product group is 1.8%, while Long term projected return is approx 5%.
Kim Eng report available for SPH
In the Kim Eng's report, the SPH's valuation is
SPH's Investible Fund 774.7 Mils
Net Debt (1025.8) Mils
Paragon Market Value 2320.0 Mils
Clementi Mall Mkt. Value 354.0 Mils
DCF valuation of media business 4626.2 Mils
SOTP valuation of SPH S$4.43
My own valuation of SPH.
SPH's cash and investment, net of debt (LT+ST investment+cash-debts) = -251 Mils
Paragon Market Value = 2320 Mils
Clementi Mall Market Value = 354 Mils
Sengkang Mall (page 5 of Q3 report 2012) = 337.8 Mils
DCF valuation of media biz = 3719 Mils (discount rate 10%, FCF 320 Mils flat, with residue value of 2384 Mils of PV @ 6th year)
SOTP valuation = 6479 Mils = $4.02 per share (Outstanding share of 1611 Mils share)
Any other diff valuation?
What happens to SPH?
There is a lot of trade done.
Price keep pushing up regardless of current market's situation.
In fact it had closed at $4.11 on Friday.
A new 52 WK. High, since a long time ago.
In fact, so much more trading and price increases then the last CD time.
Can SPH's fundamental changes so much "suddenly"?
Is there something we retail investors don't know about, that only the "insiders/professionals know?
i manage to sell @ $4.09 but missed selling at $4.11. Although i Q over-night.
But it's O. K.. Sometimes a miss is a "blessing in disguise".
Of course, sometimes, it's the other way round.
As DOW J. had shot above 13,000 on Friday's closing , SPH's price should move up on Monday more than the last closing price; if everything being equal.
That is if SPH's fundamentals remain "stable."
i hope or should be able to sell some at higher price than the last closing price of $4.11.
For me it's time to take profit for this counter, albeit at a slow pace. My 2 cents.
(28-07-2012, 05:29 PM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]What happens to SPH?
There is a lot of trade done.
Price keep pushing up regardless of current market's situation.
In fact it had closed at $4.11 on Friday.
A new 52 WK. High, since a long time ago.
In fact, so much more trading and price increases then the last CD time.
Can SPH's fundamental changes so much "suddenly"?
Is there something we retail investors don't know about, that only the "insiders/professionals know?
i manage to sell @ $4.09 but missed selling at $4.11. Although i Q over-night.
But it's O. K.. Sometimes a miss is a "blessing in disguise".
Of course, sometimes, it's the other way round.
As DOW J. had shot above 13,000 on Friday's closing , SPH's price should move up on Monday more than the last closing price; if everything being equal.
That is if SPH's fundamentals remain "stable."
i hope or should be able to sell some at higher price than the last closing price of $4.11.
For me it's time to take profit for this counter, albeit at a slow pace. My 2 cents.
'swakoo' posted a chart in one of the thread. It does appear that in recent weeks, STI had been doing rather well compared to other regional markets. Just this week, I was surprised when HSI was doing badly but STI still ended ok (IIRC, slight +ve).
Perhaps, for now anyway, we have become a 'safe haven' for investments???
Or, if you look at not just SPH, quite a few of the stocks in my Div Yield Watch List like SIAEC, STEng, SATS, Starhub, SingTel,... are doing rather well. Even many REITs.
To me, it looks like Dividend Yield stocks are now in demand. Perhaps many are finally fed up with the low bank interest + high inflation rate + fear of property price peaking and are shifting their funds to our this fav class of stocks??
I have been selling, like you, and being left with little choices in my above category of stocks. I have shifted my focus to small caps stocks + the newly listed A-HTrust. Ya, taking more risks in my greed for higher dividends..
(28-07-2012, 06:16 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I have been selling, like you, and being left with little choices in my above category of stocks. I have shifted my focus to small caps stocks + the newly listed A-HTrust. Ya, taking more risks in my greed for higher dividends..
Very strange that you would be selling cos the assumption is that you must have some 'meat' to tempt you to sell in the first place.
But if the said 'meat' is present, that means you got some of these high dividend yield stock cheap, which implies a high dividend yield.
So why would you sell when the comparable high dividend yield stocks is going to be hard to find?
I guess its a catch-22 situation. I guess there's nothing wrong with taking money off the table. Some would argue that the capital gain is worth many many years of potential dividends. Conversely, realising the gains is useless if you cannot find comparable stocks to punk yr money into.
i think there is some "truth" in what you say.
Ah... REITS, i sold almost all my reits one to two months too early in anticipation of Euro's problem.
But it seems Euro is doing a "US's QE trick too, successfully.
But i hold on to my SPH which i must be very carefully selling now.
i may sell SAT & SIAEC & SINGTEL too.
SIAEC caught me by surprize after XD, price still going strong.
I rarely can make money on small caps stocks as i am not very good in this "sector"
(28-07-2012, 06:23 PM)lonewolf Wrote: [ -> ] (28-07-2012, 06:16 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]I have been selling, like you, and being left with little choices in my above category of stocks. I have shifted my focus to small caps stocks + the newly listed A-HTrust. Ya, taking more risks in my greed for higher dividends..
Very strange that you would be selling cos the assumption is that you must have some 'meat' to tempt you to sell in the first place.
But if the said 'meat' is present, that means you got some of these high dividend yield stock cheap, which implies a high dividend yield.
So why would you sell when the comparable high dividend yield stocks is going to be hard to find?
I guess its a catch-22 situation. I guess there's nothing wrong with taking money off the table. Some would argue that the capital gain is worth many many years of potential dividends. Conversely, realising the gains is useless if you cannot find comparable stocks to punk yr money into.
As far as Stock market is concerned, coming out of the market now is useless because of very low almost ZERO interest rate from the banks. What if your capital out of the market happens to escape the BEAR's PAW 6 to 12 months or even a year or two down the road?
Are you O. K. with it?
i think if you are comfortable taking profit now, it is not a bad time to do so.
To buy is always super easy. To sell is always super doper difficult.
My 2 cents.