opppsss... sorri sorri...
wait i meant was today price drop is due to bad sentiments lah..
why u average at 3.90 b4 XD? why not wait till after XD? :O
(23-04-2012, 09:44 PM)brattzz Wrote: [ -> ]opppsss... sorri sorri... wait i meant was today price drop is due to bad sentiments lah..
why u average at 3.90 b4 XD? why not wait till after XD? :O
It's hard to explain the behaviour of a 'die-hard' fan of anything as they're at best irrational...
Let me try to explain my own irrational behaviour as a 'die-hard' fan of SPH.
I have done my own staring at the latest financials, concluded that this year, it's going to be slightly better than last although next year it'll very likely be back to flat or small +/-. Yesterday's larger than usual one-day drop induced my mind into a state of frenzy (just like people rushing to grab merchandise during a sale) and I couldn't control my fingers when it behaved in an irrational manner to tap in a buy order...
There.. I hope that explains... As a die-hard fan, I'm ok to hold long term and even buy more if it drops further. I have never been consistent in buying at it's lowest anyway. Haiz... even as I type this reply, my mind is going into another state of frenzy and trying to make my fingers do another irrational task ie. tap in a sell order....
Not forgetting the amount of advertisement developers will be paying to move unsold units. (ref: the thread titled "Builders make bid to move unsold units")
I recall reading a research report that actually count the number of job appointment pages on saturdays as a argument to support the analyst's forecast of sph performance.
(24-04-2012, 11:05 AM)wsreader Wrote: [ -> ]Not forgetting the amount of advertisement developers will be paying to move unsold units. (ref: the thread titled "Builders make bid to move unsold units")
I recall reading a research report that actually count the number of job appointment pages on saturdays as a argument to support the analyst's forecast of sph performance.
another way to see it will be that 9pm show on channel 8 will only have 3 advertisement timeslots in the past.
Not sure when did it happen that 9pm show now has 5 advertisement timeslots, including 1 between the end of the show and the start of 10pm news.
Another way to see will be to monitor the differences between ratebook from year to year
http://www.sph.com.sg/ratebook_2.shtml
(22-04-2012, 07:40 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ] (20-04-2012, 12:44 PM)KopiKat Wrote: [ -> ]As xd is on 7-May and market appear not as fearful, we have the luxury of 2 weeks to play with.
If we take a closer look at their latest figures, I'm proposing that we classify SPH as a Low Growth Stock (promote from No Growth) with effect from Feb-12 quarter. This will only last for 1 year max.
My justification - Clementi Mall full contribution just started ie. On a y-o-y basis, I see a Revenue Growth of 4% and Net Profit Growth of 16%. This is likely Net of +ve contribution from Exhibitions and -ve ones from declining Core Paper biz. The chances of y-on-y growth for the next 3 Quarters are high.
As such, I'm proposing we shift the Buy-Sell Band accordingly. A 4% (let's be conservative and use Revenue Growth rather than Net Profit Growth) shift means $3.6x/$3.9x becomes $3.7x/$4.0x (we'll also watch the next Quarter results closely to tweak this if required). This will of course be negated if STI should drop by 10% (I anyhow pluck from the air). In such an event, we'll have to gaze at the crystal ball to come up with a new band.
The other thing is, when I first described this possible 'sell-before-xd' approach for 'die-die-must-have' shareholders of SPH many, many pages back, one pre-condition was, 'there must be fear in the market'. Today, I don't see that 'fear' in the market, as compared to the previous xd on 8-Dec-11. This means there's a very high chance that come xd, it may not 'over-react' and drop a lot more than the Div = 7ct this time round. At most, maybe 2-3ct more? ie. may not be worth the 2-way transaction charges involved for the die-hard SPH supporter. So, I may not sell mine unless it goes up a lot more... Getting greedy.. Hee.. Danger signs... 
With last day of cd on 4-May, we are now down to 3 working days to D-Day. Anyhow applying the
Time Decay concept used for options, I have sold almost all of my beloved SPH (will keep some as die-die I must have some, unless it really goes past $4). One key deciding factor was observing STEng (falls under my same classification of Low/No Growth stock) dropped from $3.24 (last day of cd on 20-Apr) to $3.01 for a drop of 21ct vs Div = 12.5ct.
This will be my last post on buy/sell prices and I hope it has been as entertaining for you as it'd been for me. This is after all a Value forum and we ought not to be encouraging such Trading-like activities. To be frank, I must have used up all my 9-lives and had been very lucky for the past many pages of SPH. It can be dangerous to viewers who may be tempted to 'Try this at Home'..
Warning : Don't try this @ Home!
If wanna try at home, note Compass Point tender closes 3 May
Yes, in value investing no matter how or in your own way you "valued" a counter, you come to a decision of your B/S price. No? Is value investing means BUY & FORGET until you are forced to sell as the company's business deteriorate? Anyway, what is value of a counter if you don't talk about it's price also? If not when is cheap and when is expensive? Do we always have to talk by PER, PB, ROE, ROI, etc.... Do they really absolutely determined the price of a counter for the future? Don't forget a company is run by people. And people is the most complicated creatures on Earth. Also baring unforeseen circumstances which is a favorite phase in annual report, can affect the business climate of the company easily. Look at SMRT, just a few years ago it looked like a "pow chiat" counter. Now, most of us are not so sure. May be you like Vicom, Cerebos, and APB. Will they change in the future? Who knows?
My 2 cents.
(05-05-2012, 10:23 AM)swakoo Wrote: [ -> ]Prudential, Frasers tipped to clinch Compass Point
Looks like when Compass Point was securitised in Nov 2002, junior bond holders were given ROFR as well as full upside of any capital appreciation when sold. Effectively "sold" to them at $1243 psf NLA then. Thus if jr bond holders determined to hold on to this "Jurong Pt of the NE", SPH will be deprived of opportunity of setting another record price...
ref:
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-117-p...l#pid21122
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-117-p...l#pid21149
Die-hard SPH shareholders just breathed a huge sigh of relief!
And I guess it'll finally end up with FCT having ROFR after the new owners do some AEI and financial re-jigging (gear up) to improve the NPI that meets FCT's specifications..
I think I'm going to take a serious re-look at F&N again. Update my homework 1st...
