(16-06-2019, 09:54 AM)Temperament Wrote: [ -> ]This one was all time favorite for very long time before the disruption by new tech nologies.
But. i only benefitted for a short while or little before disrupted by new media technologies.
This was like a bond investing before media disruption.
But i believe in stock tends to revert to it''s mean.
So stocks very seldom can hold me as hostage.
YMMV.
For a stock's price to revert to its mean, it usually require a stock's business to revert to its mean.
So the question to ask is, "Can SPH's media business return to former levels of profitability?"
All businesses eventually go through a period of difficulty. But not all recover from the rough patch.
To answer the earlier question, we have to understand the circumstances which put SPH's media business in its present predicament, and ask ourselves if those circumstances are lasting.
So what is the circumstance of SPH's media business?
Increase in alternative media/news content, due to the ease of media/news content creation, basically by anyone with an internet connection. The monopoly on information, once held by Straits Times and related papers, is over.
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My prognosis is that SPH's media business will continue to suffer from falls in readership/viewership, as a new generation of media consumers seek alternate media/news sources. Unless one is genuinely interested in local affairs, there is no reason to pick up a copy of Straits Times. Personally, I do not find its content entertaining, interesting, or even enriching.
In another 10 years, SPH's property-related business may be subsidising its media businesses.
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Between SPH and SPH Reit, the latter is an obvious, and my preferred choice. But evaluating the investment merits of SPH Reit would require a separate analysis. In any case, its large market cap would make its pricing very efficient. Which means little-to-no discount from intrinsic value, if bought at present prices.