(17-02-2020, 12:01 PM)valueinvestor Wrote: [ -> ] (17-02-2020, 10:16 AM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ] (17-02-2020, 07:21 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]356 died in HK alone in 2019 due to flu. Estimated 400k Singaporeans infected by bird flu. Estimated quarter million globally died from Swine flu and ~½ million globally die annually from flu
It’s the similar psychology of aircrash sensational news vs statistics of car deaths. People fear the unknown. And only sensation sells, or generate more hits on social media. The outsized fear currently even exceed SARS which had little social media influence; I think that’s a bigger fear going forward.
Anecdotal evidence is showing Wuflu is more like bird flu than SARS in terms of fatality and infectiousness, excluding Wuhan which is plausibly sorely lack of medical resources and overwhelmed. SG Govt is already signalling that it may not continuously track the infections.
I think we probably need to brace more for the second order impact of economic slowdown.
Just to add, 100 malaysians die on the roads during the recent CNY break. And while trying to find the base rates, realized that Msians are dying on the roads in the tune of 130+ on a weekly basis. So the CNY break is not an outlier.
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/...s-one-week
https://www.thestar.com.my/lifestyle/hea...-accidents
Specuvestor, isn't it the 2nd order effects (which are not obvious to all) that really kills?
How to compare road accident to C-Virus ? Road accident is not contagious , whereas this virus can spread from one to many and still remains unknown to medical expects . Medical resources and treatments are also required for the infected patients .
For detailed info please watch this UK doctor' campbell videos.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2...IBupFtBDxg
This SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads fast like flu. However the fatality rate seems much higher than flu. Another thing to note is the Severe illness rate. at the moment its around >15%.
Lets do some numbers. SG has population 5.7million. If left unquarantined, or even with current quaratine which i believe is useless, since it spreads like flu.
U can expect similar penetration to Hubei given singapore is also densely populated. Hubei has 58.5m population. thats about ten times singapore pop.. So if the virus is at the peak in Hubei now like Beijing claims, we should expect a tenth of reported numbers in a few months time? which means
1) 7000 confirmed cases? (probably more since SG detection probably more superior, and the new 30min. test kits are soon to be produced, enhancing detection)
2) 1050 severe cases needing hospital beds? Let's say spread over 2 months, each month need 500 isolation beds with specialty respiratory ward equipments? Obviously even our superb hospitals will be overloaded. So severe cases who are poor and cannot afford will stay home quarantine? die at home?(that will drive up fatality rate rite?)
3) 170 deaths( well maybe 100 since our hospital standard much higher, but keep in mind 2) as well as many old and weak are going to die anyway despite treatment, there are hundreds on renal dialysis/diabetes/asthma etc....
Some estimated calculations of mortuary volumes in Wuhan/Hubei show about 600-1000 bodies being burned a day. (up to u to believe, but if you read the reports below, >100 body bags just for 1 mortuary alone and they are running 24/7, this is very scary. if you calculate the total cremation per day, the "official numbers" of deaths from Beijing is really grossly under reported.
Wuhan crematoriums 'are burning bodies 24/7 to cope with extra workload during coronavirus outbreak'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...kload.html
Funeral Homes in China's Wuhan 'Working 24/7 to Cremate Bodies'
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/c...05822.html
[The Wuchang Funeral Home in Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, recently advertised for 20 new members of staff to man a four-hour night shift collecting bodies from their homes]
In addition, i would like to add that if this is not that serious, why is Beijing so concerned and locking down so many cities? It's already rampant in Wuhan/Hubei province , and already spread all over China, so if its only bird flu seriousness why lock down? My guess is that there's something about the death rates and severe illness rates we are not getting the proper data from but Beijing obviously knows what is going on. IMHO fatality rate for this COVID19 might sit as high as 5% but we will need more unbiased info from outside CHina numbers to calculate.
Just like Shanghai doctors claim aerosol spread but then it was disputed by china CDC later ( was this so as to reduce panic and fear? like so many things authorities are trying to do?) I believe the current transmission rates are partly a result of aerosol spread, since flu spreads by this way as well, and as we can see this Wuhan virus is spreading pretty well too just like flu.[/font]
So should we play down this virus and say "oh its just like the birld flu and seasonal flu, not that serious???" Let's see what sort of mortality rate comes out of those in SG. We still have 6 in critical out of 70+ confirmed cases. By the time we have 100 cases, we might already have 1 death which will put death rate at a significant 1%. And if there is more than 1 death, that would put death rate at 2% which is kinda starting to get scary.
So yeah nothing to be concerned other than economic impact, but that's if you don't have a vunerable ah gong or ah ma at home...
but definitely to brace more for the second order or even third order impact... the straw that broke the camel's back is still just an insignificant straw but with huge repurcussions, especially at such valuations