Five more Chinese regions lower emergency response level as virus threat recedes
Wed, Feb 26, 2020 - 4:32 PM
[SHANGHAI] Five Chinese regions have downgraded their emergency response level after assessing that health risks from the coronavirus outbreak have receded, state media and government authorities reported......
The World Health Organization has said the epidemic in China peaked between Jan 23 and Feb 2 and has been in decline since......
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm...at-recedes
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China's virus-hit airlines are showing signs of recovery
Wed, Feb 26, 2020 - 4:25 PM
[JAKARTA] China's airline industry could be showing the first signs of recovery after dramatically shrinking over the past month as the spreading coronavirus led to thousands of flight cancellations.
Scheduled airline capacity within China is up more than 25 per cent - by 1.3 million seats - week-on-week thanks to a rebound in domestic capacity, according to OAG Aviation Worldwide.....
Coronavirus: Vietnam lured factories during trade war, but now faces big hit as parts from China stop flowing
Published: 1:02pm, 28 Feb, 2020
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...de-war-now
Coronavirus: Southeast Asian supply chains feel the squeeze from Covid-19
-Construction in Singapore, garlic in Indonesia and lobsters in Australia: all have been hit by the supply chain havoc caused by the coronavirus
-Singapore learned the need to diversify years ago, but do others really have any other option than relying on China?
Published: 12:30pm, 29 Feb, 2020
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics...e-covid-19
The total number infected in mainland China is 79,824 and 2,870 dead.
The total number infected outside China is 6,676 and 106 deaths
( posted on cnn website).
In Post #975, I reported 106 deaths outside China ( 106 figure quoted from cnn report ) may be wrong as My Mobile Phone is showing BBC report for 210 deaths in Iran.
(18-02-2020, 08:12 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]To give some numbers:
Outside of mainland China (if one don’t trust China’s numbers) there are 890 confirmed cases with 5 deaths, 0.56% fatality; 123 recoveries so far
Global excluding just Hubei there are 13262 confirmed cases with 79 deaths, 0.6% fatality; 4699 recoveries so far
If we base on generally accepted 10% fatality for those in critical, China will record 2000th death by end of the month, while recoveries will exceed 20k. With ref to my 7th Feb post, the number of new confirmed and suspected adds according to China’s numbers peaked around Feb 5, excluding the one day spike on 12 Feb that included clinical diagnosis. I would double up on BlueKelah’s virtual bet that SG numbers peaked last week. But with the possible irresponsible DBS cluster, SG number of cases likely peak this week if not last week. Symptoms generally develop within 7 days.
The denominator is likely to be much larger based on precedents, so the % will be much smaller; rather than presume the other way round that as denominator gets larger the numerator increases proportionately. AIA and POSB / Chubb is offering insurance on COVID-19 so the actuaries are getting comfortable with the numbers
Following up with the posts:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5531...#pid156198
It is probably more obvious now that social media is scarier than the flu itself. And the straw that broke a Camel’s back, though a straw, will have immense second order impact
It is probably also obvious now that Singapore cases peaked around 14 Feb. The draconian measures of Japan and Korea will probably see their cases peak by end of March. This will be a test for civil rights focused western world to see how they measure up in a pandemic. If panic takes hold, they will loot as personal interest is more important than community. As of now I’m not sure when they will peak which also means the second order impact cannot be ascertained
Outside of Hubei, China has 13065 cases with 112 deaths, mortality of 0.86%. Total cases in China now is 79972 with 2873 deaths and with 7365 critical we can expect another 700 deaths by end of this month. There are 42162 recoveries
Outside of China there is total 5101 cases of 78 deaths, mortality is 1.5% which anecdotally I think Iran has reported way below infected numbers. Otherwise the numbers seems quite consistent with 10% of "confirmed" infection can turn serious and 10% of that could result in death. For those that believe the Chinese numbers, you can also see the breakdown here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/
The same site estimates 81600 deaths from seasonal flu this year so far
Latest figures from China : 80,552 cases infected and 3,042 dead. and 55,190 recovered.
Above was posted by scmp website : info source from China's NHC.