China’s new economy loses sparkle, as hi-tech and modern industries fail to deliver
Published: 6:00am, 31 Dec, 2019
..... The “new economy” has never been officially defined, but is a concept loosely applied to a wide range of industries from artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, to fintech and web-based tourism.
Beijing had hoped these would propel China from a traditional economy powered by unsustainable infrastructure investment and low-end manufacturing to a modern services-based economy, but new research suggests that this is not happening......
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econo...and-modern
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Three reasons China cannot count on urbanisation to boost consumption and bolster its economy
Published: 3:00pm, 31 Dec, 2019
......First, as China’s population ages, the workforce might not be as mobile as it has been so far. Official data suggests that China’s working-age population (those between 15 and 64) peaked in 2009 and began to shrink thereafter. In the meantime, the proportion of elderly people in the population has been increasing......
Second, local governments need to invest massively to improve infrastructure and the social welfare system to provide the necessary services for the new residents. However, this will be difficult, if not impossible, because of the debt overhang, particularly at the local government level......
Finally, household debt is already a serious concern in China; as a share of GDP, it has risen rapidly in recent years. According to the IMF, China’s household debt amounted to 54 per cent of GDP in 2018, compared with only 35.8 per cent in 2014.....
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/art...mption-and
China Needs More Than Just Rules to Tackle Bond Defaults
7 January 2020, 05:00
.....In response to a surge in bond failures, Chinese regulators have taken unprecedented steps in recent weeks to restore investor confidence via more efficient and transparent handling of defaults.....
Onshore bond defaults reached 134.1 billion yuan ($19.2 billion) last year, hitting a fresh record for the second consecutive year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Out of the 414 onshore bonds that had defaulted by the end of last year, only 74 completed “proper debt restructuring”, according to Tan Chang, an analyst at China Chengxin International Rating Co. The recovery rate on defaulted bonds since 2018 has fallen to 3.9%, from 24% in the four years prior to that, Shanghai Chongyang Investment Co. said in a research note dated Dec. 27.....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...d-defaults