(01-03-2016, 12:57 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]Personally, I would say that betting against China's long term future, is similar to trying to bet against US's long term future which has odds that Warren Buffet suggests is not good.
I like the last sentence. I concur.
Two updates here, one for the China stock market, and one for the China property market. Both are positive...
Templeton predicts 20% China stock rally as panic fades
HONG KONG (March 1): The worst is over for Chinese stocks after panicked investors caused the world's deepest selloff, according to Franklin Templeton's money-management unit in Shanghai.
The US$5.3 trillion ($7.5 trillion) market will rebound as much as 20% in the "short term" as economic growth picks up and yuan volatility decreases, said Lirong Xu, the chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Sealand Fund Management Co, which oversees about RMB30 billion yuan ($6.4 billion). He spoke less than two hours before the central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements, sparking a rally in China's offshore equity-index futures.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...anic-fades
China's home price gains quicken in February: surveys
01 Mar 2016 11:22
[BEIJING] Chinese home prices grew at a stronger pace in February, two private surveys showed on Tuesday, underlining signs of recovery taking hold in the housing market.
Prices of new homes in 288 cities in February rose an average 4.3 per cent from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of gains and quickening from January's 3.4 per cent, a poll by property services firm Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC) showed.
Compared with the previous month, home prices were up 0.9 per cent, improving from a 0.7 per cent increase in January, said CRIC, owned by E-House China Holding Ltd.
A separate survey from China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) showed average prices in the 100 biggest cities rose 5.3 per cent in February compared with a year earlier, the seventh year-on-year rise in a row.
...
REUTERS
Source: Business Times Breaking News
The total number is 5-6 million worker in China. The zombie SOEs are the one dragging the economic growth...
China aims to lay off 5-6 million state workers: sources
BEIJING (March 1): China aims to lay off 5-6 million workers from "zombie enterprises" over the next two to three years as part of efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and pollution, two sources with ties to the country's leadership said.
The government's plans to lay off five million workers in industries suffering from a supply glut would be the country's boldest retrenchment programme in almost two decades, one source said.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...rs-sources
Whilst that figure is less than one percent of workforce, china workforce was almost 800million in 2013, it's not small figure. There will definitely be some flow on effects to other related sectors as well.
If china does go the way of Japan, with an ugly deleveraging occuring and decades of deflation ahead, unlike the usa, I would not bet against them but neither would I be betting for them..
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(02-03-2016, 10:29 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Death and Despair in China's Rustbelt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2...s-rustbelt
as I said for them to be consolidating coal and steel which are one of the backbone of their industrial machine, the budget of Beijing must be really tight now. They are spending everything to support the yuan now including selling off their precious foreign reserves. Taxes are probably shrinking at record pace and all the while they have to spend more to support their bloated state owned enterprises. Something has to give.
Beijing is probably panic inside whilst outside cannot lose face so have to continue prop up their yuan and their "GDP growth"
(01-03-2016, 04:14 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: [ -> ] (01-03-2016, 12:57 PM)weijian Wrote: [ -> ]Personally, I would say that betting against China's long term future, is similar to trying to bet against US's long term future which has odds that Warren Buffet suggests is not good.
I like the last sentence. I concur.
I am not so sure about its long term future. I wont bet against it, neither will I bet for it. I wonder whether did anybody made the same statement when Japan also became a super economic power after World War 2. I believe the Japanese also do not have any lack of talents. But we do know what happened to Japan's economy now. I see the way the talented Chinese authorities flip flop on their policies doesn't give much confidence to me. The country may be strong now, but one thing I observed is its pp are not as united compared to Japan and USA.
Some of Japanese inventions are: Compact disk player, first portable calculators, high speed bullet train etc.. Chinese notable inventions I can remember are paper, fire powder, chop sticks
, bicycle ?, compass etc.
(03-03-2016, 06:54 AM)Bibi Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder whether did anybody made the same statement when Japan also became a super economic power after World War 2. I believe the Japanese also do not have any lack of talents. But we do know what happened to Japan's economy now. I see the way the talented Chinese authorities flip flop on their policies doesn't give much confidence to me. The country may be strong now, but one thing I observed is its pp are not as united compared to Japan and USA.
IMHO, there are some things that GDP measure and some things that it doesn't.
For example, if the Japanese economy is only growing at 1% but its population is shrinking at 1%, its population should be doing well (in terms of quality of living). On per capita basis, I would tend to think that Japan is growing well, if one eyeballs the curve. Another thing I like to point out is GDP doesn't really account for is the age difference in a population. Surely, the earning and consumption capacity of a person in highly dependent on his age, besides his income. A young man of 25, a middle age man of 50 and an old man of 70 would have different kind of consumption patterns.
In conclusion, the nominal GDP data appears to indicate that Japan is stagnating. The reality should be a lot more nuanced.
betting against China is the last thing on my mind.. A stronger China only means good for all of us, especially Asia Chinese. Gone were the days of Japanese MNCs, I used to work in one before, their style of management has been obsolete, which tend to protect their ownselves, though now they are starting to change
(03-03-2016, 09:27 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: [ -> ]betting against China is the last thing on my mind.. A stronger China only means good for all of us, especially Asia Chinese. Gone were the days of Japanese MNCs, I used to work in one before, their style of management has been obsolete, which tend to protect their ownselves, though now they are starting to change
If I have to choose, I rather work for Jap firm than a Chinese firm. The Jap takes care of themselves. I have the impression that the Chinese companies are more profit oriented and bosses take care of themselves. Even Chinese locals dont like to work for Chinese private firms.